From
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3777413.stm
At ASPO's recent conference in Berlin, companies such as BP and Exxon
and men such as Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International
Energy Agency, began to talk to the proponents of the peak oil
theory.
Whilst they may not agree with Dr Campbell's theories, their
attendance highlighted ASPO's emerging importance in the oil debate.
In public, Mr Birol denied that supply would not be able to meet
rising demand, especially from the buoyant economies in the USA, China
and India.
But after his speech he seemed to change his tune.
"For the time being there is no spare capacity. But we expect demand
to increase by the fourth quarter (of the year) by three million
barrels a day."
He pinned his hopes for an increase in production squarely on troubled
Saudi Arabia.
"If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the
end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very
difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest."
Can Saudi deliver?
But even Mr Birol admitted that Saudi production was "about flat".
Three million extra barrels a day would mean a huge 30% leap in output
in just a few months.
When BBC News Online followed up by asking if this giant increase in
production was actually possible rather than simply a desire he
refused to answer. "You are from the press? This is not for you. This
is not for the press."
Asking other delegates - admittedly supporters of the peak oil theory
- whether such a steep increase was feasible, the answers were
unambiguous: "absolutely out of the question," "completely
impossible," and "3 million barrels - never, not even 300,000."
One delegate laughed so hard he had to support himself on a table.
Some recent figures tend to back up ASPO's outlook.
North Sea production is declining at an increasing rate, having peaked
in 1999.
Not at the predicted flat rate of decline of 7%, but gradually
accelerating from 7% to 8.5% to 11%.
