OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
I ran the math to determine the cost per KWh of the various generators in Ontario that would be required to cover the capital necessary to procure them. I also delve into the operating costs later in the piece, as these are also significant. This is Ontario-specific, so please don't assume that these apply to your province/state/country. However it does give one an interesting view into the energy industry in the province and definitely was a bit of an eye opener for me.
Quote:
The per Megawatt cost of three major generators is as follows:
A 2.5MW wind turbine costs us $1,200,000/MW
The Lilly Lake solar farm cost us $4,500,000.00/MW
A 2,400MW Nuclear install (2 reactors) is $5,000,000/MW
However, to determine how quickly these devices will cover their capital costs we need to know how many KWh a year each is capable of producing. For this, I defer to the data provided on the IESO website, which gives us the following:
Nuclear: 7,112,035.75KWh/MW of installed capacity
Wind: 2,294,162.63KWh/MW of installed capacity
Solar: 892,857.14KWh/MW of installed capacity
Now we need to determine the "lifetime" of the product:
- A CANDU reactor has a lifespan of 30 years before refurb
- A Wind turbine has a marketed lifespan of 20 years
- A solar panel is also listed as having a 20 year lifespan
So, over their lifetime our generators produce the following:
Nuclear: 213,361,072.5KWh/MW
Wind: 45,883,252.6KWh/MW
Solar: 17,857,142.8KWh/MW
This results in the following per KWh rates to cover our capital:
Nuclear: $0.023
Wind: $0.026
Solar: $0.252
Which brings us to the electricity situation in Ontario and some rather alarming realities:
Ontario has 12,978MW of installed Nuclear capacity. This generates 92,299,999,963.5KWh of electricity per year. Nuclear facilities are paid market rate for baseload, which is around $0.045/KWh, this results in an annual income of $4,153,499,998.36. Based on a 30 year refurb cycle, this means that there is $124,604,999,950.73 generated between refurbs to cover operating costs and to be collected to cover the refurbishment costs, which are roughly $3 billion per reactor. The province has 18 operating reactors, though the 6 oldest have been deemed non-viable for refurb and will be shuttered. Factoring in the present 12 billion set aside for the Darlington refurb and the refurb at Bruce, we've spent 24 billion on refurbishment, leaving us with $100 billion to cover operating costs for the three facilities, or $3.3 billion per year, which works out to $1.1 billion per facility per year to cover operating costs. A healthy situation.
Ontario has 3,923MW of installed Wind capacity. This generates 8,999,999,997.5KWh of electricity per year. Wind facilities are massively subsidized thanks to the contracts given to the independent companies that own and operate them and they are paid on average, more than $0.20/KWh. Using that number alone, this generates an annual income of $1,799,999,999.5. Based on the 20 year contracts held by these companies, total revenue will be $36 billion dollars. Capital investment would be roughly $4.7 billion, leaving these companies with a profit of $31.3 billion.
Ontario has 280MW of installed Solar capacity. This generates 249,999,999.2KWh of electricity per year. Solar is massively subsidized, the Lilly Lake facility is paid $0.42/KWh, using that across the board, that results in an annual income of $104,999,999.67. Based on the 20 year contracts held by these companies, total revenue will be $2.1 billion. Capital investment would be roughly $1.26 billion, leaving these companies with a profit of $840 million dollars.
My conclusions, edited to remove political commentary are:
Quote:
- Solar is simply non-viable in Ontario. With a break-even per KWh rate of 25 cents, this is simply outrageous.
- We have been screwed HARD on wind. These facilities could be paid fair market baseload rate and still make a healthy profit. This is money that comes DIRECTLY out the pockets of Ontarians, and over the 20 years that these contracts run, we will be paying more than 30 BILLION DOLLARS in profit to these companies thanks to the rate subsidies.
- Nuclear power is cheap. These facilities more than cover their operational and refurbishment costs due to their extremely high outputs. This simply reinforces my support of them for baseload duty.
This also means that if the rate subsidy contracts were cancelled, wind farm operators would continue to be profitable, which was a concern I had when considering the repercussions of such an approach. Solar farms would likely fold. At fair market rate, they would never make back their capital costs before the panels died.
Quote:
The per Megawatt cost of three major generators is as follows:
A 2.5MW wind turbine costs us $1,200,000/MW
The Lilly Lake solar farm cost us $4,500,000.00/MW
A 2,400MW Nuclear install (2 reactors) is $5,000,000/MW
However, to determine how quickly these devices will cover their capital costs we need to know how many KWh a year each is capable of producing. For this, I defer to the data provided on the IESO website, which gives us the following:
Nuclear: 7,112,035.75KWh/MW of installed capacity
Wind: 2,294,162.63KWh/MW of installed capacity
Solar: 892,857.14KWh/MW of installed capacity
Now we need to determine the "lifetime" of the product:
- A CANDU reactor has a lifespan of 30 years before refurb
- A Wind turbine has a marketed lifespan of 20 years
- A solar panel is also listed as having a 20 year lifespan
So, over their lifetime our generators produce the following:
Nuclear: 213,361,072.5KWh/MW
Wind: 45,883,252.6KWh/MW
Solar: 17,857,142.8KWh/MW
This results in the following per KWh rates to cover our capital:
Nuclear: $0.023
Wind: $0.026
Solar: $0.252
Which brings us to the electricity situation in Ontario and some rather alarming realities:
Ontario has 12,978MW of installed Nuclear capacity. This generates 92,299,999,963.5KWh of electricity per year. Nuclear facilities are paid market rate for baseload, which is around $0.045/KWh, this results in an annual income of $4,153,499,998.36. Based on a 30 year refurb cycle, this means that there is $124,604,999,950.73 generated between refurbs to cover operating costs and to be collected to cover the refurbishment costs, which are roughly $3 billion per reactor. The province has 18 operating reactors, though the 6 oldest have been deemed non-viable for refurb and will be shuttered. Factoring in the present 12 billion set aside for the Darlington refurb and the refurb at Bruce, we've spent 24 billion on refurbishment, leaving us with $100 billion to cover operating costs for the three facilities, or $3.3 billion per year, which works out to $1.1 billion per facility per year to cover operating costs. A healthy situation.
Ontario has 3,923MW of installed Wind capacity. This generates 8,999,999,997.5KWh of electricity per year. Wind facilities are massively subsidized thanks to the contracts given to the independent companies that own and operate them and they are paid on average, more than $0.20/KWh. Using that number alone, this generates an annual income of $1,799,999,999.5. Based on the 20 year contracts held by these companies, total revenue will be $36 billion dollars. Capital investment would be roughly $4.7 billion, leaving these companies with a profit of $31.3 billion.
Ontario has 280MW of installed Solar capacity. This generates 249,999,999.2KWh of electricity per year. Solar is massively subsidized, the Lilly Lake facility is paid $0.42/KWh, using that across the board, that results in an annual income of $104,999,999.67. Based on the 20 year contracts held by these companies, total revenue will be $2.1 billion. Capital investment would be roughly $1.26 billion, leaving these companies with a profit of $840 million dollars.
My conclusions, edited to remove political commentary are:
Quote:
- Solar is simply non-viable in Ontario. With a break-even per KWh rate of 25 cents, this is simply outrageous.
- We have been screwed HARD on wind. These facilities could be paid fair market baseload rate and still make a healthy profit. This is money that comes DIRECTLY out the pockets of Ontarians, and over the 20 years that these contracts run, we will be paying more than 30 BILLION DOLLARS in profit to these companies thanks to the rate subsidies.
- Nuclear power is cheap. These facilities more than cover their operational and refurbishment costs due to their extremely high outputs. This simply reinforces my support of them for baseload duty.
This also means that if the rate subsidy contracts were cancelled, wind farm operators would continue to be profitable, which was a concern I had when considering the repercussions of such an approach. Solar farms would likely fold. At fair market rate, they would never make back their capital costs before the panels died.