OVERKILL
$100 Site Donor 2021
Ontario has released its first ever Integrated Energy Plan:
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1006043/ontario-launches-plan-to-secure-energy-for-generations
And it goes HARD.
The IESO original recommendation for the province had a lot of VRE in it:
The province decided to go much harder on nuclear instead. The IESO recommended 133TWh come from nuclear by 2050, the province has decided to make that 200, with VRE capacity at about what it is right now, so without the massive expansion of wind the IESO included.
Of course the Pickering refurbishment is now factored into Ontario's nuclear capacity going forward. New capacity also includes Bruce C (4,800MW) and Wesleyville (10,000MW), which I've mentioned in previous posts. There's also now mention of a "2-furb", which is the 2nd refurbishment of Bruce units 1 and 2 around 2045-2050, which would then lead into the 2nd refurbishment of Darlington and then the rest of the fleet again, pushing all these assets past the century mark. 200TWh is about 25GW of nuclear, so the plan is to effectively double the current fleet size.
Potential wild cards: Bruce is still trying to get an agreement with their local indigenous group (Saugeen Ojibwe Nation), while Wesleyville already has support from the local indigenous group. This may mean that Wesleyville, despite not as far along in planning as Bruce C, could be built first.
Of course this plan is contingent on demand growth that we haven't seen yet. So we may see these capacities and the rate of deployment revised if that growth doesn't materialize at the rate anticipated, or, potentially, appears quicker than expected.
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1006043/ontario-launches-plan-to-secure-energy-for-generations
And it goes HARD.
The IESO original recommendation for the province had a lot of VRE in it:
The province decided to go much harder on nuclear instead. The IESO recommended 133TWh come from nuclear by 2050, the province has decided to make that 200, with VRE capacity at about what it is right now, so without the massive expansion of wind the IESO included.
Of course the Pickering refurbishment is now factored into Ontario's nuclear capacity going forward. New capacity also includes Bruce C (4,800MW) and Wesleyville (10,000MW), which I've mentioned in previous posts. There's also now mention of a "2-furb", which is the 2nd refurbishment of Bruce units 1 and 2 around 2045-2050, which would then lead into the 2nd refurbishment of Darlington and then the rest of the fleet again, pushing all these assets past the century mark. 200TWh is about 25GW of nuclear, so the plan is to effectively double the current fleet size.
Potential wild cards: Bruce is still trying to get an agreement with their local indigenous group (Saugeen Ojibwe Nation), while Wesleyville already has support from the local indigenous group. This may mean that Wesleyville, despite not as far along in planning as Bruce C, could be built first.
Of course this plan is contingent on demand growth that we haven't seen yet. So we may see these capacities and the rate of deployment revised if that growth doesn't materialize at the rate anticipated, or, potentially, appears quicker than expected.
