We are going down a bit of a rabbit hole, here, but I’ll bite.
Back in college, I read a book “beat the dealer“ by Edward O. Thorpe. There are various approaches, but the underlying principle is this, as the deck becomes either rich ( more than average ) in 10s (cards including tens and face cards) or poor in tens, you adjust your betting. The dealer plays by a fixed set of rules, on when they can hit, and when they have to stand.
By adjusting your betting to the slight variations in odds that happen when the cards are dealt, you can get from a 48% chance of winning (no counting) to upwards of 52%.
As you said, the casino “Burns“ the first card. That means it can’t be counted, and further, they stick a yellow card in the back of the “shoe” so that they stop dealing right as the deck is more likely to become either rich or poor in 10s.
Now, statistics being what they are, and “streaks“ being what they are, you need to have a stake of about 100 bets - the value of your table minimum or regular bet. So given the level of what you’re playing, minimum $1000, perhaps several times that, so that a prolonged bit of bad luck, does not take you to zero cash.
Having read the book, and having memorized the betting tables, then having spent several nights in practice, a couple of buddies and I drove to Atlantic City. Back then, the table minimum was five dollars, and I was able to scrape up about $250. Not enough of a stake to truly survive a bad streak, but enough to play for a while.
It is very hard to devote the level of attention necessary to count every single card. It is even more challenging, if you’re trying to hide the fact that you’re counting, by conversing with the dealer, your fellow players, and occasionally chatting to the waitress who comes by and takes her eye off the table. I do not recommend drinking while doing this, though you can get a non-alcoholic drink, of course.
It is also worthwhile, to keep moving your pile of chips between your pockets and the table. Bring out some cash and buy more chips now and then.You should tip the dealer, too, by the way. You don’t want them noticing an ever growing pile of chips. You don’t want them to be able to count exactly what your winnings look like by looking at either your chips, or the cash, that’s in plain sight.
Kenny Rogers was not wrong when he said “you never count your money, while you’re sittin’ at the table“
The Pit Boss, as well as the security cameras, are looking for card counters.
Still, even to this day, with all the mitigation strategies and policies in place, the practice of counting cards allows you enough of an edge to push your odds of winning up to 51%.
If they catch you, you’ll be banned from that casino, and likely other casinos as well as they share security concerns.
But, on that one night, in January 1986 when I gave it a try, no one was looking at the college kid who was playing five dollars a hand. I was a small player. Not betting big, not a “serious” player in their eyes. Just a kid, in their eyes.
I walked into the casino with $250, and four hours later I walked out with over $700. Playing $5 BlackJack. Not really Luck, because I played hundreds of hands, but the level of effort is high, as is the risk.
Not sure I would ever try it again. I’m not really a gambler, I just enjoyed the challenge.
