eKrampitzjr, become amish, and 99.9999999999999% of your worrys will go away.
Made a decision today; new world coming
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Okay... so what are you going to do now? I can't see how continuing to drive an aged Escort is any improved solution over buying a new vehicle. (Other than it simply saves you some cash.) Now, if you said you were going "off grid" I could see your purpose. Why won't you be abandoning all fuel burning vehicles, or at least going to a high MPG hybrid vehicle?
A little less radical would be to take steps away from 'consumerism'. Things I do: vegetable garden, planted fruit trees, installed a wood stove. Each takes skills like running a tiller, log splitter, tree sprayer. But you can learn from books or friends. We currently have chickens and have had goats in the past. You can get off the 'grid' with solar panels but requires an investment. And read Mother Earth News.
W just about kissed the Saudi Princes the other day in TX.quote:
Originally posted by rjundi:
However until the day you quit driving you kiss theirs?
ekrampitz: Join up with www.rigzone.com and get them to email you their daily newsletter. The people you are getting your information from aren't giving you the truth...they are trying to convince you to lay down and watch gas prices go nuts. The rigzone newsletter will give you information on sooo many new wells you will get right back to your normal life and forget you even thought about your current car being your last car.
Steve
Steve
Of course there are new wells, the higher prices have made formerly unprofitable wells more feasible. But number of wells on the surface is a short term phenomena and has little relationship to the amount of oil under the ground.
Dont give up.
But if you fold on life.That will be another less person using gas..
But if you fold on life.That will be another less person using gas..
Brian: After WW2 we rebuilt Germany's infrastructure (and now most of them hate us) yet our infrastructure is crumbling.
We continue to give billions away to foreigners
while many here are without healthcare.
Many of our industries can't compete with those
of Germany and Japan (that we rebuilt) who do not have a huge Military to support. Most of our politicians are more concerned about Israels' survival than our own.
Social Security is going broke while 30 year old drug addicts and alcoholics collect benefits.
It's almost unbelieveable. That's why I,m pessimistic about our future.
Ed, I may agree that the Midddle Eastern oil situation may be in decline. That just means the USA, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, etc. take up the slack.
Alternative fuels will be a reality, but we're not asleep at the wheel, imho.
BP, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Petro Canada, etc. are constantly developing new sources and technologies, so I don't get too concerned over the Middle East situation relative to oil.
Perhaps they do misstate there capabilities, reserves, and capacity to give themselves more power and influence. So what?
Don't know the percentages, but much of the fuel used in N/A is not directly sourced from the Middle East.
We may have them over the barrel someday if need be.
Alternative fuels will be a reality, but we're not asleep at the wheel, imho.
BP, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Petro Canada, etc. are constantly developing new sources and technologies, so I don't get too concerned over the Middle East situation relative to oil.
Perhaps they do misstate there capabilities, reserves, and capacity to give themselves more power and influence. So what?
Don't know the percentages, but much of the fuel used in N/A is not directly sourced from the Middle East.
We may have them over the barrel someday if need be.
Srivett:
Keep pushing up oil prices and consumers readjust their expectations. Now if we saw $2USD gas there would be shouts of joy.
I agree with conservation, fwiw, but I think OPEC is purposely keeping production low to maintain high prices. This article has an interesting take on OPEC.
http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/R2004-171.pdf
This seems right to me. I think OPEC is happy to keep with the excessive demand/China and India consuming more mantra.
Keep pushing up oil prices and consumers readjust their expectations. Now if we saw $2USD gas there would be shouts of joy.
I agree with conservation, fwiw, but I think OPEC is purposely keeping production low to maintain high prices. This article has an interesting take on OPEC.
http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/R2004-171.pdf
This is one reason I like this group- much experience and mucho links to industry info!
OK,
I read the article from the MIT prof, I thought it was a bit strong on feelings and shy on hard research.
Then I went over to Rigzone as advised. I did a search of "peak oil" in their archives and found 3 news articles -dated November 2003, May 2004, and March 2005.
After reading the 3 articles all I can say is-
Guys, I think it's time to sell your SUV's !
Cheers,
Mark
Guys, this will be my last BITOG post, so I'd better make it good.
You thought my concerns were overblown or even funny. Yesterday in Parade, the Sunday newspaper supplement, is a report that Iraq's oil production may well be in trouble not just because of insurgent action, but also because of the possibility of damage to the oil fields from current pumping practices. Keep in mind that we're shedding blood over there. Also keep in mind that one of Shell's major fields in Indonesia collapsed because of pumping practices; now it's largely unproductive. Fears are that the major Saudi fields will go the same way.
Matthew Simmons, mentioned in my original post as one who is raising alarms about Saudi oil production, is one of President Bush's primary energy advisors. There should be no doubts that Bush is aware of Simmons's stance on Middle East oil production.
Laugh now. My intent is primarily to save the money that a new car would have cost to be able to prepare for what's to come instead. My suspicion (and I hope I'm wrong) is that we'll be in real trouble in about 10 years. And yes, I'll try to keep driving as long as I can with what I have now. When fuel prices start shooting into the stratosphere, I might be able to keep driving just a little longer than others whose income is tied up with expensive vehicle payments or who (like idiots) willingly drive gas guzzlers.
I must reiterate that many recent government actions make sense only when viewed in this light. Example: despite new planes from Airbus, the government is cutting funding for aeronautical research at NASA Langley and NASA Glenn in favor of increasing spending on space exploration. You would think we'd need the research to find ways to make aircraft more fuel efficient, but that's not how the money is going to be spent.
The decision makes perfect sense, however, if the administration is looking at the day when there will be little or no aviation sector because cheap fuel is gone and no one will be able to afford to fly except for perhaps a few elite and some emergency military personnel. And in the place of the aviation sector we will have manned space exploits to distract the population with a bread-and-circuses spectacle. (By the way, in the past I have been an advocate of spaceflight. This is different.)
Also, where many on the left had advocated requiring our teens to perform some kind of national service, now I see more and more on the right voicing the same opinion but with the service being military. Again, this makes sense if the government expects to draft our youth to fight for cheap oil sometime soon.
We Americans need to face a fact: we have no special claim on the world's resources and we will have to learn to do with less, especially as things hit the fan with oil supplies. The bulk of our production has moved overseas. Most of the high-tech and information jobs that were supposed to be our new economy have also moved overseas. We produce little clothing, appliances, steel, etc., compared to our historic practices. Our resources are depleted. Potential foreign markets are now themselves developed. Our brave new future will be filled with minimum-wage jobs with no benefits or pensions and little promotion potential. Where do we get off expecting to continue using so many resources and so much oil anyway? Let alone when the wells decline. . . .
We allowed government and corporations to have too much power. In turn, we have willingly consumed what these corporations have produced, even when it made little sense (example: SUVs and other gas hogs). Our comeuppance is coming; but many of you don't seem to want to admit it yet.
The way out is to go to a hydrogen economy (with the hydrogen derived from seawater) and to do this on a war footing. The technology is there; we just need to spend the money, do more research, and make the effort. I have copies of relevant technical papers that discuss how to do all this. The problem is that we won't until it's too late. We're too busy consumin', being too bloody optimistic, and not paying attention.
I love BITOG and these forums, but I fear that many of you are too busy laughing at Cassandras such as me to see the larger picture. I hope I'm wrong. But for now, adios.
You thought my concerns were overblown or even funny. Yesterday in Parade, the Sunday newspaper supplement, is a report that Iraq's oil production may well be in trouble not just because of insurgent action, but also because of the possibility of damage to the oil fields from current pumping practices. Keep in mind that we're shedding blood over there. Also keep in mind that one of Shell's major fields in Indonesia collapsed because of pumping practices; now it's largely unproductive. Fears are that the major Saudi fields will go the same way.
Matthew Simmons, mentioned in my original post as one who is raising alarms about Saudi oil production, is one of President Bush's primary energy advisors. There should be no doubts that Bush is aware of Simmons's stance on Middle East oil production.
Laugh now. My intent is primarily to save the money that a new car would have cost to be able to prepare for what's to come instead. My suspicion (and I hope I'm wrong) is that we'll be in real trouble in about 10 years. And yes, I'll try to keep driving as long as I can with what I have now. When fuel prices start shooting into the stratosphere, I might be able to keep driving just a little longer than others whose income is tied up with expensive vehicle payments or who (like idiots) willingly drive gas guzzlers.
I must reiterate that many recent government actions make sense only when viewed in this light. Example: despite new planes from Airbus, the government is cutting funding for aeronautical research at NASA Langley and NASA Glenn in favor of increasing spending on space exploration. You would think we'd need the research to find ways to make aircraft more fuel efficient, but that's not how the money is going to be spent.
The decision makes perfect sense, however, if the administration is looking at the day when there will be little or no aviation sector because cheap fuel is gone and no one will be able to afford to fly except for perhaps a few elite and some emergency military personnel. And in the place of the aviation sector we will have manned space exploits to distract the population with a bread-and-circuses spectacle. (By the way, in the past I have been an advocate of spaceflight. This is different.)
Also, where many on the left had advocated requiring our teens to perform some kind of national service, now I see more and more on the right voicing the same opinion but with the service being military. Again, this makes sense if the government expects to draft our youth to fight for cheap oil sometime soon.
We Americans need to face a fact: we have no special claim on the world's resources and we will have to learn to do with less, especially as things hit the fan with oil supplies. The bulk of our production has moved overseas. Most of the high-tech and information jobs that were supposed to be our new economy have also moved overseas. We produce little clothing, appliances, steel, etc., compared to our historic practices. Our resources are depleted. Potential foreign markets are now themselves developed. Our brave new future will be filled with minimum-wage jobs with no benefits or pensions and little promotion potential. Where do we get off expecting to continue using so many resources and so much oil anyway? Let alone when the wells decline. . . .
We allowed government and corporations to have too much power. In turn, we have willingly consumed what these corporations have produced, even when it made little sense (example: SUVs and other gas hogs). Our comeuppance is coming; but many of you don't seem to want to admit it yet.
The way out is to go to a hydrogen economy (with the hydrogen derived from seawater) and to do this on a war footing. The technology is there; we just need to spend the money, do more research, and make the effort. I have copies of relevant technical papers that discuss how to do all this. The problem is that we won't until it's too late. We're too busy consumin', being too bloody optimistic, and not paying attention.
I love BITOG and these forums, but I fear that many of you are too busy laughing at Cassandras such as me to see the larger picture. I hope I'm wrong. But for now, adios.
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ekrampitzjr
I too wonder about a neo "dark ages" coming in the future. Spirit alone will not conquer technological road blocks that we've managed to navigate around with compensatory actions. There are some bottom lines that can't be circumvented regardless of your ingenuity level.
Yes, we are 'unwise' in many respects.
That being said, you and I can fear the future ..or prepare ourselves to cope with it. Getting and staying out of debt would be a personal action that will reduce most impacts upon you...otherwise ..you're in the same boat as the rest of the world ..with us being at the top of the heap regardless if it is made of the most furtile of soil ..or the smelliest manure.
Any alternative energy sources will either be heavily subsidized ..or they will have to wait until they're competitively priced. Keep in mind that we have vast coal reserves that can be cleaned and processed into fuel. This isn't cheap ..but it's available ..and that's what really counts. Everything else will sorta work itself out.
I too wonder about a neo "dark ages" coming in the future. Spirit alone will not conquer technological road blocks that we've managed to navigate around with compensatory actions. There are some bottom lines that can't be circumvented regardless of your ingenuity level.
Yes, we are 'unwise' in many respects.
That being said, you and I can fear the future ..or prepare ourselves to cope with it. Getting and staying out of debt would be a personal action that will reduce most impacts upon you...otherwise ..you're in the same boat as the rest of the world ..with us being at the top of the heap regardless if it is made of the most furtile of soil ..or the smelliest manure.
Any alternative energy sources will either be heavily subsidized ..or they will have to wait until they're competitively priced. Keep in mind that we have vast coal reserves that can be cleaned and processed into fuel. This isn't cheap ..but it's available ..and that's what really counts. Everything else will sorta work itself out.
Eeeeek .......
Al is looking at me funny and has a knife in his hand. Wait a minute put that fork down ..... Um you dont need that cooking pot Al.
Repeat after me
Bugshus taste Bad
Bugshus taste Bad
Bugshus taste Bad
Everyone join in together
Bugshus taste Bad
Al stay away from me with that serving set ......
Eeeeeeek
Plop Splash Sizzle
Um Al ..... You should know that 30 weight isnt a proper cooking oil
Um
HAPPY HAppy Happy happy "echo echo echo" Motoring All I mean Al,
Bugshu
Al is looking at me funny and has a knife in his hand. Wait a minute put that fork down ..... Um you dont need that cooking pot Al.
Repeat after me
Bugshus taste Bad
Bugshus taste Bad
Bugshus taste Bad
Everyone join in together
Bugshus taste Bad
Al stay away from me with that serving set ......
Eeeeeeek
Plop Splash Sizzle
Um Al ..... You should know that 30 weight isnt a proper cooking oil
Um
HAPPY HAppy Happy happy "echo echo echo" Motoring All I mean Al,
Bugshu
- Joined
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Hmm ..come the revolution ..I'd better lose some weight ..otherwise I might be the "Hey, Gary, you should hang with us. We need people like you." kinda guy.
There is a little truth on both sides of this issue. Statistics serve the master that creates the assumptions.
All estimates of petrolium reserves are based on what the current reserves are doing, production wise, and estimates of new reserves.
Likewise, consumption estimates are based on current useage, and growth potential.
Combine the most conservative reserve estimate with the most agressive consumption estimate, and you end up with a crossing on the graphs in just a few years.
The absolute truth is that we do not know what the real reserves of petrochmeicals are. We do not even know how oil is produced in the earth. The best experts on the Pleistocene era now admit that the known reserves exceed the biomass available in that era. The method of oil production in the earth is up for new theories.
Siesmic data is the base of some reserve estimates, and is known to be incorrect in some instances. A large reserve was just discovered in Utah, in an area abandoned by the readers of seismic data. If there is a slowdown in oil production, we will have lots of warning. A well does not just stop, there is a decline of 5-10 years or more in the usual cases.
I do feel for you, ekrampitzjr. I felt the same way in the 1978-1979 time period. The estimates of the day placed the graph crossing point before 2000, and social collapse before that. I sold my gas hog, and headed to the Ozark hills, Mother Earth News in hand. Two years later, I came to my senses, and rejoined American society. Advice to eliminate debt and live within your means is good advice, in any year, with or without any crisis
All estimates of petrolium reserves are based on what the current reserves are doing, production wise, and estimates of new reserves.
Likewise, consumption estimates are based on current useage, and growth potential.
Combine the most conservative reserve estimate with the most agressive consumption estimate, and you end up with a crossing on the graphs in just a few years.
The absolute truth is that we do not know what the real reserves of petrochmeicals are. We do not even know how oil is produced in the earth. The best experts on the Pleistocene era now admit that the known reserves exceed the biomass available in that era. The method of oil production in the earth is up for new theories.
Siesmic data is the base of some reserve estimates, and is known to be incorrect in some instances. A large reserve was just discovered in Utah, in an area abandoned by the readers of seismic data. If there is a slowdown in oil production, we will have lots of warning. A well does not just stop, there is a decline of 5-10 years or more in the usual cases.
I do feel for you, ekrampitzjr. I felt the same way in the 1978-1979 time period. The estimates of the day placed the graph crossing point before 2000, and social collapse before that. I sold my gas hog, and headed to the Ozark hills, Mother Earth News in hand. Two years later, I came to my senses, and rejoined American society. Advice to eliminate debt and live within your means is good advice, in any year, with or without any crisis
Man, if Americans did that (especially with our current day logistical/economic situation where most textiles and consumer products are made abroad), I think the country would have collapsed many years ago. And that is my worry about the United States and the way we are. If China and India turn into neo United Stateses, then I think we'll have to turn Antarctica into a Landfill! Hey, that'll provide workquote:
Originally posted by OMCWankel:
Advice to eliminate debt and live within your means is good advice, in any year, with or without any crisis
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