Mack Truck laying off 100s in PA & MD

[skyactiv]

I remember seeing a YouTube video about a aftermarket motorcycle parts manufacture that sells custom handlebars. He tried to get made in USA ones but the U.S. manufactures wanted such a large minimum order that he could never sell such a quantity. A Chinese manufacture was willing to make a smaller quantity he needed.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Yes, but we already spent the money - so we can't austerity ourselves to success. If we did balance the budget tomorrow, unemployment would be 10%, and tax receipts would fall, meaning we would be back to deficit spending shortly.

True - but the millennials being asked to pay for all those wars were not even old enough to vote when they started

So yes you have a very good grasp of the problems that got us here, but don't seem to have realistic suggestions for how to move forward, other than stating you don't like current path?

So lets assume I buy into all this - what is the solution? You can't run a current account deficit forever.

When the Fed dropped interest rates by 0.50% in November, the 10 year bond went up almost a full 1.0%.

When the market sold off over the last few weeks - the 10 year bond sold off also (lost value, rising yield). This only happens in failiing economies, where no one wants to buy your bonds. Typically bond prices are the inverse of stock prices - a flight to safety. This is what happens in Banana Republics, not the USA.

So were out of globalism rope. Not saying the current strategy will work, but going back to what was 2 years ago is literally not an option - even if 100% of the people agreed we should. The US bond markets would implode.

Of course the market sold off because of all tariff nonsense and investors went looking elsewhere. Uncertainty breeds volatility and debt becomes more expensive relative to better managed economics.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Tariffs could be the answer. The issue is implementing them before the country has the production capacity to make up for imports. It took 60 years for the situation we have today. They are not going to reverse it in 6 months

It'll never happen at least not with the results you're expecting.

 

[Rmay635703]

I wasn't a member here during the "C" time period . Was anyone up in arms when whole states were getting their entire debt wiped clean ? Trillion dollars flushed down the toilet. Billions stolen and never recovered, is that what this country wants to go back to.

There was a many trillion $$$ shadow bank bailout in 2020, royally messed up housing and stocks.

It is very likely there will be another this year , so in my view that is regressing back to how things were already.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Simple response.

Interest rates are based on risk. Government bonds to finance debt are considered the safest instrument to safe guard liquid assets, based on the full faith and trust of a nation.

If you have liquid assets that you want to earn interest, and safeguard, the market often places this liquid assets into government bonds.

Historically, with the U S. As the world's reserve currency, the most easiest bond to buy it sell, backed by the full faith and backing of the United States, US bonds on a macro basis should always pay the lowest interest if any Western nation.

Why would institutions put liquid assets into Germany, paying two percent less that the U.S.? Why are institutions unwilling to by US. Debt unless the US. Pay two percent more than Germany?


This is an undisputable canary in a coal mine.

Simple, the current plan is bad.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

The US pays more for presciption drugs than any other nation on earth, and often significantly more . If the US is paying significantly more than any other nation on the globe for prescription drugs.... why are these prescription drugs not manufactured in the US????

SImple. People with the same skills are willing to do it for less.

 

[alarmguy]

AG, for the most part consumers are buying existing inventory; the tariff affected stock will take the requisite lead time to hit the shelves or be used in mfg assemblies.

The stock is already coming ashore my wife deals with this. You can’t say you need lead time to hit the shelves. The product was already on cargo ships when the tariffs were put in place that inventory now gets the additional tariff added to it on US Shores.
Your comment about hit the shelves you were talking about one aspect of the economy meaning what retail is a holding. The bottom line is the stuff was already shipped and it’s not just retail items. It’s commercial goods supplies endless products not just beanie baby toys for tots games.
It’s garments, shoes, sneakers, tumblers, coolers, sporting goods, promotional items, home items, furniture.


Customers have ordered product at one price arrives in US port tariff is tacked on and becomes a fiasco if the company in China is going to give in or insist the company buying the product in the USA is going to pay the tariff.

General impression coming from my wife is China companies are not giving in and paying the tariff.
Pretty much telling the US customer it’s their problem.

 

[scoot]

There was a many trillion $$$ shadow bank bailout in 2020, royally messed up housing and stocks.

It is very likely there will be another this year , so in my view that is regressing back to how things were already.

I got two words for you that caused that . DOBS FRANKS . 100%

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Albeit I am OCONUS, I haven't read a single article, that after peeling back the onion, the US is throwing any weight around. What I conclude is the US can't afford to be a patsy any longer.

Decades of massive trade deficits, monster federal debt, monster federal deficit. U.S. needs to be lean and efficient if it has any hope to prevent a financial collapse, and maintain a certain standard of living.

False premise. The US isn't a patsy. Trade deficits don't matter. Public spending is not related to trade deficits.

 

[4WD]

I got two words for you that caused that . DOBS FRANKS . 100%

I know a bank CEO who intentionally stopped growing over that law bcs once big enough - they could bully you into giving loans to unqualified people …
Sounds familiar

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I have done work in your valley - long ago, on the manufacturing side, when they did that there. Nice place to visit. I am likely viewed as too old to work there now. Its OK, I think I will stay in Charleston and automate factories here.

Your "solutions" are "Just learn to code." Where have I heard that before? Its not real solution. Even if we did, the Chinese would just steel the IP like they do now. Like I said, we have lots of engineers we graduate and don't use already. Graduating more does nothing for us - maybe creates more student loan debt.

The chips act was a bribe to CEO's to bring jobs back to America. Were broke. Thats the whole point - we don't have money to bribe more CEO's. Tariff does the same thing as a bribe. Only difference is what order the money gets paid.

No, there are no ready made workers in Phoenix for TSMC to hire. We haven't made chips here in decades. They will have to train some. The people in Taiwan didn't intuitively know how 30 years ago either. Once we have some trained workers, maybe more companies will come make chips in Phoenix.

It's a knowledge and capital mobility problem. Knowledge is essentially free and capital is mobile. You either stay ahead of workers who are competing against you or not. Capital will flow to areas where it can be put to the best use. Exhibit A: BMW has invested billions of dollars in upstate SC.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The stock is already coming ashore my wife deals with this. Customers have ordered product at one price arrives in US port tariff is tacked on and becomes a fiasco if the company in China is going to give in or insist the company buying the product in the USA is going to pay the tariff.

General impression coming from my wife is China companies are not giving in and paying the tariff.
Pretty much telling the US customer it’s their problem.

The fiasco has started.

The effects of the tariffs are barely starting. Give it a month. I suggest you Google "when will consumers see the effects of the tariffs" as I do not want to provide any links myself, for obvious reasons.

 

[SC Maintenance]

No, the price hike took effect immediately on products from China. Anything coming into US ports no matter how long the merchandise was at sea. It’s taxed with the tariff once it arrives

I have heard of goods just being abandoned at the port. Customer refuses shipment. No idea what happens then.

I also have heard many complete ships have been cancelled. It has a name I forget. Basically these big ships just make the same milk run continually. There booked out years in advance. Many have just been stopped and sit idle.

 

[scoot]

China has its hands full with many issues right now , all of it they created . I won't buy anything with a China label right now . If I have to go without something I'll go without. I won't starve . Let that place collapse.

 

[Rmay635703]

 

[loneryder]

The fiasco has started.

The effects of the tariffs are barely starting. Give it a month. I suggest you Google "when will consumers see the effects of the tariffs" as I do not want to provide any links myself, for obvious reasons.

Use google and all you're are going to get is leftist propaganda. I used duck duck go and asked a similar question and all I got were "the sky is falling" articles.

 

[loneryder]

Post 223 shows what happened the last time tariffs were installed which Biden left mostly in place. It appears nobody has read it.

 

[loneryder]

View attachment 276202

Easter weekend?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I have heard of goods just being abandoned at the port. Customer refuses shipment. No idea what happens then.

I also have heard many complete ships have been cancelled. It has a name I forget. Basically these big ships just make the same milk run continually. There booked out years in advance. Many have just been stopped and sit idle.

So less work for dock workers, truckers, etc. Less retail business, fewer dollars circulating.
Component shortages after safety stock is consumed. I do not know how much imported content American vehicle factories use; it varies. But it has to touch every vehicle.

Of course there will be some impulse buying; hording artificially lowers available supplier levels.

 

[Jetronic]

Truckers keep America rolling, they are the very first people in the USA to see a recession on the horizon.

When I travel for work out of state I will ask ‘Bob the Long Haul Trucker’ how were things going BEFORE these recent tariffs.

Some long haul truckers drive 140K miles per year crisscrossing the USA.

there's a downturn in freight every year around Christmas, until the Chinese new year is done. This year there wasn't due to front loading. That's what Shipping data shows.

If truckers noticed less work, it's because there"s more of them.