Lexus RZ, first EV for the brand DOA

DwightFrye said:
For example, in California the Tesla Model 3 is the best selling car. Period. It outsold the very popular ICE Camry. Yes that is not a worldwide number but the California car market isn't small potatoes. 5 years from now Toyota may be wishing that they took the EV market more seriously back in the early 2020's.
Click to expand...
"may" is speculation and speculation is ok if you believe it. Having a top selling model of a car is not the most vehicles sold in the country.
GM, Toyota blow away Tesla sales. Tesla has a long road ahead. Chart was for Dec I think but I posted it for the YTD of 2022 which is the full year number.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2022-us-auto-sales-figures-by-manufacturer/

Screenshot 2023-02-10 at 1.58.26 PM.png
 
Last edited:
@DwightFrye
Related to the above, not that it matters but it is an example of when I say, Tesla is just another car company.
As far as what happens in Five years is almost impossible to say. There is no right or wrong, we speculate in our investments.
No secret that my feelings are that Tesla has a boatload of competition heading its way for the small niche market it holds.
Doesnt mean I am right but my feelings are that it would be silly to discount long term. No right or wrong.

No sooner than I posted the reply above this one, this hits the wires. Good or bad? It might be good, companies can only grow and get better if someone in the company notices that they flounder in areas.

https://stocks.apple.com/AadegqtP_Q_Ctyla0R1zJSQ
 
I know who Ross Gerber is and he is a smart guy. Being a "friendly activist" on the board is not a bad thing. Hopefully he is smart enough to know that a lot of the "FUD" that he refers to is generated by those in the media who hate Elon for many reasons including what he is doing with Twitter to expose the politicians that said media are lapdogs for. If he uses his power and influence to "nip it in the bud" as Barney Fife used to say regarding the FUD, his presence on the board will be a positive.

One thing that sticks out like a sore thumb in the sales chart above is that while 8 manufacturers outsold Tesla in 2022, all 8 of them posted negative numbers. Tesla was up 77.51%. Certainly the trend of both negative and positive sales numbers for ALL manufacturers is going to change over the next few years, but I continue to believe that Tesla, with the amount of money they are generating will continue to be a hard target to beat by the other manufacturers.

But we are all idle speculators aren't we ?
 
DwightFrye said:
I know who Ross Gerber is and he is a smart guy. Being a "friendly activist" on the board is not a bad thing. Hopefully he is smart enough to know that a lot of the "FUD" that he refers to is generated by those in the media who hate Elon for many reasons including what he is doing with Twitter to expose the politicians that said media are lapdogs for. If he uses his power and influence to "nip it in the bud" as Barney Fife used to say regarding the FUD, his presence on the board will be a positive.

One thing that sticks out like a sore thumb in the sales chart above is that while 8 manufacturers outsold Tesla in 2022, all 8 of them posted negative numbers. Tesla was up 77.51%. Certainly the trend of both negative and positive sales numbers for ALL manufacturers is going to change over the next few years, but I continue to believe that Tesla, with the amount of money they are generating will continue to be a hard target to beat by the other manufacturers.

But we are all idle speculators aren't we ?
Click to expand...
It's easy to be up when you sell such little numbers with a new engine. Pretty soon everyone else will have the same engine.

True Tesla up 77% but a LONG way to go to the top 5 whom have just started production of Teslas product/engine and already Teslas market share is falling by double digits. Also note in 2018 Tesla was up 277% and never happened again in the triple digits.
It's reality when you sell 10 Bic Pens one year and 20 Bic pens the next, your sales are up 100%.

It would be unrealistic for GMs sales to be up 77% in 2022 as that would mean they would have had built an additional 1.7 million vehicles instead of the roughly 220,000 more that Tesla sold in the USA. BTW Tesla unlike other automakers hide their USA sales numbers so all USA sales are estimates by outside companies. They didnt even pay USA corporate taxes in 2021 because there was no profit. Im unsure about 2022.

Dont misunderstand my posts, I am not anti Tesla, I look at any company by the way I see it. To me, its just a consumer car, even an economy car, no way do I see it as luxury class, just because its priced that way doesnt make it so. Actually with recent price reductions it looks more attractive, they were actually forced into it because sales were starting to slow.

Agree. The board needs a Ross Gerber, who knows, maybe he will one day replace Elon. I think that might actually be a good thing and I like what Musk stands for (no politics) but he has gone a little off the rails.
 
Last edited:
alarmguy said:
"may" is speculation and speculation is ok if you believe it. Having a top selling model of a car is not the most vehicles sold in the country.
GM, Toyota blow away Tesla sales. Tesla has a long road ahead. Chart was for Dec I think but I posted it for the YTD of 2022 which is the full year number.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2022-us-auto-sales-figures-by-manufacturer/

View attachment 139771
Click to expand...

Totally get by volume that Tesla is way behind, but it's shocking a car company has existed less than 20 years in a price point that is somewhat premium and they're everywhere in small town midwest at least where I'm at. They must be doing something right. I wasn't an early adopter but plenty more have bought after we did. I can't go a day without seeing one. I know if I go to Madison I'll see a fleet of them since they think they're midwest California. I live in a town of 16k people and work in a town of 12k and I see at least a couple in both places every time I go to work. I drove home from LaCrosse today (about 2.5 hours) and I saw 5-8 on the highway which is still near the middle of nowhere. I would've never thought 5 years ago I'd see a single one in this area.

I know this still isn't a ton of cars but they've went from nothing to something fast in big areas and are actually growing in rural areas.
 
I know that many Tesla model variations are priced in the luxury vehicle class. But I don't think most buyers think of them as luxury vehicles like if they were buying a Mercedes, BMW or Lexus ICE vehicle for the same money. The interiors for example are often criticized in Teslas. People are buying them because they are EV's and the price is not a determining factor.

I don't think Ross Gerber has the knowledge or experience to run a car company. He's a money guy, and a darn good one. Elon and his top level executive staff are primarily engineers, and Elon, besides being a brilliant engineer is also a very, very savvy businessman.

I live in a small mountain community in Southern California.California is the largest market for Tesla's at the moment. Even in my town which only has a population of around 3500, you couldn't swing a cat without hitting a Tesla. The most popular vehicles here are AWD SUV's with 4WD trucks and Jeeps making up the balance. Practicality being a driving factor, we don't get much snow but get enough that people want vehicles that can handle it on the steep and winding roads.

If Tesla were to introduce something with a form factor along the lines of (and priced competitively with) the popular Toyota RAV4, Mazda CX 5, Subaru Outback and Ford Explorers that are rather ubiquitous here and with AWD capability, they would sell a lot of them. I almost never see any Model X's, I think that one is a turkey and Tesla needs to rethink something in the mid sized SUV category.
 
DwightFrye said:
I know that many Tesla model variations are priced in the luxury vehicle class. But I don't think most buyers think of them as luxury vehicles like if they were buying a Mercedes, BMW or Lexus ICE vehicle for the same money. The interiors for example are often criticized in Teslas. People are buying them because they are EV's and the price is not a determining factor.

I don't think Ross Gerber has the knowledge or experience to run a car company. He's a money guy, and a darn good one. Elon and his top level executive staff are primarily engineers, and Elon, besides being a brilliant engineer is also a very, very savvy businessman.

I live in a small mountain community in Southern California.California is the largest market for Tesla's at the moment. Even in my town which only has a population of around 3500, you couldn't swing a cat without hitting a Tesla. The most popular vehicles here are AWD SUV's with 4WD trucks and Jeeps making up the balance. Practicality being a driving factor, we don't get much snow but get enough that people want vehicles that can handle it on the steep and winding roads.

If Tesla were to introduce something with a form factor along the lines of (and priced competitively with) the popular Toyota RAV4, Mazda CX 5, Subaru Outback and Ford Explorers that are rather ubiquitous here and with AWD capability, they would sell a lot of them. I almost never see any Model X's, I think that one is a turkey and Tesla needs to rethink something in the mid sized SUV category.
Click to expand...
Start the Model Y at $30k, and watch the Rav4s and CRVs disappear; heck internationally those subsidy filled corps everyones worried about would basically fold overnight. The quality concerns, the material choices being inferior will disappear overnight. That being said, I guess they cant since Wall St will shut them out from future capital they need (MARGINS, THINK OF THE MARGINS!), and the people who bought into the brand thinking this would be an alternative to a BMW X3, Lexus NX, Mercedes Luxury variant would basically engage "camp mode" for a refund in front of Freemont and Giga Texas.

My personal take is that the Model Y was designed as a Rav4 competitor, but since EVs have HUGE COSTS IN battery, their high ATP put them into running for premium/luxury owner $$$. If they designed the Model Y to be a compact/X3 competitor, the cost would be pushing way more then it is now.
 
Toyota has basically shunned EV's and have their heels dug into the dirt on electrifying (well except their hybrid crown jewels). I feel its very short sighted, they will lose market share until they can get a competitive offering out there.

Toyota, Honda and Chrysler are quite behind in EV development right now. Despite limited offerings right now the other legacies are at least getting the ball rolling and getting real world data and experience for their engineering teams as well as their dealer networks for the sales and service side.

Out of all the legacies I have to say Mercedes has shocked me the most with their major ICE to EV turnabout. The rate they are releasing EV specific models is eye popping to the say the least and now the recent announcement of their own charging network. They opened their big pocketbook when they saw Tesla conquering their clients. Seems Mercedes is all in on EV's right now and actually delivering on it.

We shall see how all the differing plans shake out over the next 5 years.
 
Last edited:
I think the big deciding factor in who will be developing and releasing EV models is who has the capital necessary to do it right. And not release some kind of kludge model just because they want to have something in that category.

Honda has really slipped lately in reputation and sales as has Nissan. That limits their ability to devote resources to an all new type of vehicle. Stellantis ? Well maybe we'll see an EV Jeep some day and it will likely be plagued with reliability problems like their other vehicles.

The luxury makers like Mercedes and Jaguar/Land Rover are embracing the EV category. They have the money to spend.
Toyota has the resources but has made a decision to put their EV lineup on the back burner. My guess is that will be seen in the future as a major mistake. Volkswagen will probably capture a lot of the market share that Toyota would have.

It will certainly be interesting to look back in about 2025 or 2026 at the EV marketplace and see who made the best gamble in 2022 and 2023.
 
DwightFrye said:
I know that many Tesla model variations are priced in the luxury vehicle class. But I don't think most buyers think of them as luxury vehicles like if they were buying a Mercedes, BMW or Lexus ICE vehicle for the same money. The interiors for example are often criticized in Teslas. People are buying them because they are EV's and the price is not a determining factor.

I don't think Ross Gerber has the knowledge or experience to run a car company. He's a money guy, and a darn good one. Elon and his top level executive staff are primarily engineers, and Elon, besides being a brilliant engineer is also a very, very savvy businessman.

I live in a small mountain community in Southern California.California is the largest market for Tesla's at the moment. Even in my town which only has a population of around 3500, you couldn't swing a cat without hitting a Tesla. The most popular vehicles here are AWD SUV's with 4WD trucks and Jeeps making up the balance. Practicality being a driving factor, we don't get much snow but get enough that people want vehicles that can handle it on the steep and winding roads.

If Tesla were to introduce something with a form factor along the lines of (and priced competitively with) the popular Toyota RAV4, Mazda CX 5, Subaru Outback and Ford Explorers that are rather ubiquitous here and with AWD capability, they would sell a lot of them. I almost never see any Model X's, I think that one is a turkey and Tesla needs to rethink something in the mid sized SUV category.
Click to expand...
A CX5 costs how much? Model X?
I think that's your disparity reasoning, lol
 
Ws6 said:
A CX5 costs how much? Model X?
I think that's your disparity reasoning, lol
Click to expand...


I think what he was saying is that consumers would go for a vehicle that has the seating capacity and utility like a CX5 or others in that class.
 
DwightFrye said:
I think the big deciding factor in who will be developing and releasing EV models is who has the capital necessary to do it right. And not release some kind of kludge model just because they want to have something in that category.

…

It will certainly be interesting to look back in about 2025 or 2026 at the EV marketplace and see who made the best gamble in 2022 and 2023.
Click to expand...
I think it will be who makes the vehicles consumers want at a price they can afford, 4 door sedans went out of style a long time ago.
The majority will stay with the convenience of the ICE until there is a better convenient alternative at a better price.
2026 is way too soon to know the market outcome of the honeymoon phase of a new engine and fueling method. EVs will still only be a fraction of the market.
Many “forecasts” use 2030 and they have drastically cut EV market penetration.

I agree it will be interesting but Americans are not going to want to be inconvenienced with charging and as Americans many can afford and will continue with the ICE.
I say many of course some others will love EVs. Choice is good until it’s forced. 🙃
 
Last edited:
PimTac said:
A poorly designed sedan.
Click to expand...

If there's a vehicle Tesla has done as an afterthought, it's the Model Y. It's the weirdest stretch a Model 3 into a basic crossover design and call it a day. I can't explain how much I dislike the look of it.
 
What I was saying was that Tesla needs to manufacture something about the same size as the very popular mid sized SUV's. It needs to have good ground clearance and AWD and sell for under $40k fully loaded and around $32K for a base model.
The Model 3 and Model Y are sedans, not SUV's. Most SUV's seen today can't really be considered to be "off road" vehicles as they don't have 4WD like some Jeeps but they do see use on some unpaved roads or in deep snow conditions. Having high door sills and good ground clearance are design features of most of them, something that sedans are lacking in.
 
DwightFrye said:
What I was saying was that Tesla needs to manufacture something about the same size as the very popular mid sized SUV's. It needs to have good ground clearance and AWD and sell for under $40k fully loaded and around $32K for a base model.
The Model 3 and Model Y are sedans, not SUV's. Most SUV's seen today can't really be considered to be "off road" vehicles as they don't have 4WD like some Jeeps but they do see use on some unpaved roads or in deep snow conditions. Having high door sills and good ground clearance are design features of most of them, something that sedans are lacking in.
Click to expand...
Is the Model Y marketed as a sedan from Tesla? I believe that the classic definition of what classifies as a CUV will change with EVs. They dont need to have high ground clearance or high door sills since its a range penalty. EV motors basically eliminate the need for complex gearing 4wd systems; motors and software have shown that it can put down power faster, and better then a traditional vehicle.

TLDR CUVs will move towards becoming Giant Rolling Eggs that minimize ground clearance due to ground effects but the passengers will sit higher in vehicle.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom