Is it reasonable to expect more than 15 years and 200k from an older car ?

What? Electronics go obsolete much faster than mechanical components. So with more electronics there are more parts to go obsolete, and the piece parts and IC's needed to make them are driven by much higher volume indistries - like Playstation, and go obsolete even faster. Been living it in the industrial world for 30 years. Drives fail all the time.
Seems to me some electronics fail much faster than others.

The ECU in my 1991 Previa is original and still works.

Touch screens on some 10 year old cars get awfully slow and then stop working altogether. I have no idea why the difference.
 
Seems to me some electronics fail much faster than others.

The ECU in my 1991 Previa is original and still works.

Touch screens on some 10 year old cars get awfully slow and then stop working altogether. I have no idea why the difference.
Definitely hit or miss. You don't know till you know. This person is having trouble with there 21 year old PCM:

The root issue is the PCM (Powertrain control module). The main chip loses communication with engine sensors. I have tried a few different used PCM’s, however they all do the same thing, to varying degrees. A new PCM is not available from Ford. I have not tried a remanufactured PCM. I sent my original PCM to a place to have it repaired, they sent it back and said they do not have access to the defective chip.
From this thread.

 
I wonder though, how much of it has to do with lubricant improvements. I think engines last longer in recent decades has less to do with metallurgy and engineering and more with oil.

Cylinder ridges at the top of strokes was a big thing decades ago. Now, you hardly see it in cars with 200k. Is that cause they’re using different iron and aluminum blocks?

I think it’s because of the superior oils of today vs yesterday. These oils protect better against corrosion, flow better, and last longer.
Engine/trans, powertrain in general is only part of it. Door hinges, interior in only 10 year old vehicles I remember being shot. Granted the hinges on Escape is wore out and the door is sagging but still closes normally. I remember cursing square bodies doors since those wouldn't close. Square bodies were also rattle traps, at least my dads 77 and gpas 85. In the 88 S15 the switch for the blend door or heater controls broke, couldn't find a replacement for some reason. No different than screens failing. Parts availability and Youtube have changed things drastically also.
 
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