Investors....come in please!

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Originally Posted By: JHZR2
I picked up some AXAS, and my LINE did well today. Wondering, as Id like to pick up some AT and PBI, but they were both up nicely today. I either missed my chance friday (prices were just slightly above my desired entry point) or will have my chance in a week...


Some profit-taking hit PBI yesterday, so it closed well off the highs, but still up about 13% ytd (now up 1% today). BUT, it is still down 14% over 3 months with a PE of around 4 and a great (safe) dividend of $1.50/yr.

I think PBI has some good upside. I am holding my position (mostly added in the past 2 months).


Tim
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek


I haven't decided what to with gold/silver miners. They are very good value compared to metals, but could go down if we have indiscriminate selling.


LOL! Market answered my question loud and clear. I should have sold it when I had doubts.
 
Just got over $900 in Dividends from NYMT!
banana2.gif
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek


I haven't decided what to with gold/silver miners. They are very good value compared to metals, but could go down if we have indiscriminate selling.


LOL! Market answered my question loud and clear. I should have sold it when I had doubts.


Tell me about it. Tried to take a stab at the bottom in miners and immediately got stopped out. Oh well. Same with JO, although I got a small profit on it.

I can't believe I'm thinking about trying the widow maker...

http://www.businessinsider.com/1994-federal-reserve-tightening-story-2013-1

If yields start busting through all their resistance, it'll be the trade of a lifetime.
 
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/another_use_for_the_yield_curve/

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/the-10-year-relationship-between-the-sp500-and-fed-funds-rate/

You can see in the chart in that article what happens each time the Fed raised rates during the last 3 maturing business cycles; it's started the blow off top in the stock market and treasuries tanked. Who knows if it will happen this time but it looks like things might be lining up. Unemployment claims are hitting 5 year lows as well.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Weekly-Unemployment-Claims.php

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/cherry-picking-timeframes-on-alleged.html
 
Originally Posted By: LT4 Vette
Yep, love those dividends.

I only own 400 shares of NYMT


It's better than nuttin'.

I got around 3,500 shares of NYMT.
 
Thanks for those links, Drew! It'll be interesting...

I'm up 15% short-term on BMY in my Roth. Hummm... I like DG Investing, but it's nice to grab some profits too.
 
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek


I haven't decided what to with gold/silver miners. They are very good value compared to metals, but could go down if we have indiscriminate selling.


LOL! Market answered my question loud and clear. I should have sold it when I had doubts.


Tell me about it. Tried to take a stab at the bottom in miners and immediately got stopped out. Oh well. Same with JO, although I got a small profit on it.

I can't believe I'm thinking about trying the widow maker...

http://www.businessinsider.com/1994-federal-reserve-tightening-story-2013-1

If yields start busting through all their resistance, it'll be the trade of a lifetime.


Feels like capitulation in miners, but you know what they say about falling knives. I read it as a complete lack of fear and that agrees with VIX reading as well as numerous sentiments reading that are certainly topping.

I would not short treasures now. I believe they will go higher before they can go lower. Check COT readings on 30 year T-notes. Small speculators are currently shorting those.
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
I read it as a complete lack of fear and that agrees with VIX reading as well as numerous sentiments reading that are certainly topping.



Short term, you're probably right. If you draw a resistance trendline from the 2 52 week highs from 2012 on the SP500/Dow, the market is now right there. But given the fact that the Republicans are punting on the debt ceiling, that won't be a big market event for several more months.
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Sold everything today. That's not to say it wont go higher though.


I got out of my longer term savings/SPY today. I don't know what you look at, but the put call ratio on the SP500/NYSE on a weekly basis bottomed and ticked up for the first time since the top in Oct. of 2012, indicating a potential intermediate top is here (as people are starting to buy more puts over calls to hedge positions). It's one of the best indictors I've found as it actually gives signals in advance of moves in the stock indexes.
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Sold everything today. That's not to say it wont go higher though.


I don't know what you look at


Just my greed indicator this time. I looked at the $CPCE on a weekly and the cross on the MACD. Is that what your looking at?
 
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Originally Posted By: Drew99GT
Originally Posted By: Warstud
Sold everything today. That's not to say it wont go higher though.


I don't know what you look at


Just my greed indicator this time. I looked at the $CPCE on a weekly and the cross on the MACD. Is that what your looking at?


I watch the put call volume ratio on freestockcharts.com/Worden and the CPCE, but I like the faster oscillators to decipher the data. Look at CPCE with Stochastics RSI weekly, it ticked up to green meaning put buying is now outpacing call buying. Everytime it does that, it's been a market top. Doesn't mean it will be this time, but it's a pretty darn good indicator.

Michael Gayad is sounding the alarm as well that this may be the final shakeout before the great rotation back into stocks/yields finally bottoming and rising.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000143232
 
Quote:
The economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/30/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE90T07520130130

"Unexpectedly", ya right, only for people who pay no attention. IMHO this is the beginning of the bad news.

The data was clear about upcoming recession, but only if ones looks at real data and not fabrication by government economists http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Durable-Goods-Real-Per-Capita.php

Full disclaimer: short on stocks as of couple of days ago.
 
One more thing. According to alternative sources of economic numbers, we are entering a third dip recession now if you use growth numbers adjusted to Real inflation. Interesting how the ever efficient stock markers haven't pick up on it yet.

commentary_2010_gdp_bls_cpi_ppi_full.png
 
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