My taxes were in the mail last week. Will get a few bux back..
Had a good day today. FRO continues a steady climb..
Had a good day today. FRO continues a steady climb..
Investors....come in please!
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Congrats on being up 7%, OMG.
I've lowered my basis on some stuff, but just breaking even so far.
I've lowered my basis on some stuff, but just breaking even so far.
Originally Posted By: TheLoneRanger
Congrats on being up 7%, OMG.
I've lowered my basis on some stuff, but just breaking even so far.
Thanks, I scored big in Jan. FRO is carrying the freight for a couple things that are down at the moment. Got lots of divs due in the next few weeks.
Congrats on being up 7%, OMG.
I've lowered my basis on some stuff, but just breaking even so far.
Thanks, I scored big in Jan. FRO is carrying the freight for a couple things that are down at the moment. Got lots of divs due in the next few weeks.
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Careful bears,
If yesterdays lows hold or even if we drop below yesterdays lows by 1% or less between now and Mon. AM. there's a rather high chance the bulls will run you over for a week or 2.
Then you can come back to play.
Hey, bring on the bulls. I'm positioned to take some profits in even a modest run.
Careful bears,
If yesterdays lows hold or even if we drop below yesterdays lows by 1% or less between now and Mon. AM. there's a rather high chance the bulls will run you over for a week or 2.
Then you can come back to play.
Hey, bring on the bulls. I'm positioned to take some profits in even a modest run.
Originally Posted By: cmhj
Careful bears,
If yesterdays lows hold or even if we drop below yesterdays lows by 1% or less between now and Mon. AM. there's a rather high chance the bulls will run you over for a week or 2.
Then you can come back to play.
Should have said Tues., not Mon.
No promises of a 1-2 week rally here but it's in some of my cycle & pattern analysis.
Looks like my get out signal for Feb. 1 was right on target. Never argue with an old time options trader.
Careful bears,
If yesterdays lows hold or even if we drop below yesterdays lows by 1% or less between now and Mon. AM. there's a rather high chance the bulls will run you over for a week or 2.
Then you can come back to play.
Should have said Tues., not Mon.
No promises of a 1-2 week rally here but it's in some of my cycle & pattern analysis.
Looks like my get out signal for Feb. 1 was right on target. Never argue with an old time options trader.
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Originally Posted By: Oldmoparguy1
Hey, bring on the bulls. I'm positioned to take some profits in even a modest run.
In a perfect world we'll bottom by or on Tues. if we didn't today or don't tomorrow, then rally back to or near the early Feb. highs within 1-2 weeks & then really die.
The most optimistic outlook I can offer the bulls, at this time, is a trip up to around ^SPX 1420-ish. Only the greedy would hold out looking for this if they want to cut losses and get out before we take another and likely worse tumble.
Hey, bring on the bulls. I'm positioned to take some profits in even a modest run.
In a perfect world we'll bottom by or on Tues. if we didn't today or don't tomorrow, then rally back to or near the early Feb. highs within 1-2 weeks & then really die.
The most optimistic outlook I can offer the bulls, at this time, is a trip up to around ^SPX 1420-ish. Only the greedy would hold out looking for this if they want to cut losses and get out before we take another and likely worse tumble.
^SPX passed through 1400 on Jan. 15. Looks like you are pretty much on target. Things could get really nasty before too long. Going to take some patience...
These 1 day rallys we have are on low volume, and the drops are on big volume. Obviously the selling isn't over yet, although I heard an analyst say we're already discounting a mild recession.
Thanks for watching my portfolio guys!! Seems to have done fine.
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Hi. My name is Steve, I'm 40 years old, and I bought my first ever share yesterday.
Keep your eye on it.
Hi. My name is Steve, I'm 40 years old, and I bought my first ever share yesterday.
Keep your eye on it.
Making invest decisions based on recent events. First of all I'm not a "Trader" its not for me for the most part. I've done OK on GLD/OIL ETF's (Sold off now) I'm 62 and am 15% invested in Mutual Funds and currencies. Of that Currencies are probably 50+ percent bc my mutual funds are 80% Foreign. They are mostly Europe area-60%.
I have started selling some of the mutual funds (Fidelity Europe and Fidelity Nordic area). They have done well bc of the Euro/Krona, etc. I'm leaving my Canada fund intact bc of the Canadian dollar and its Energy rich.
Now to my point: I intend to slowly buildup more exposure to Commodities, Currencies, and Energy. Problem is that Commodities/Energies have been on a tear recently. And I feel the U.S. is going nowhere given lack of caring/corruption by Politicians and Fed Money policies.
Its difficult how commodities/Energy can continue to go at that rate without tanking the US/World economies. Increasingly they are being driven by folks like me looking for hedges.
Anyone want to predict how this will turn out in the next year and forward?
Cliffs Notes:
1. Don't have faith in the US economy and its Money Policy.
2. Switching more to currencies, commodities, Energy.
3. Looking for thoughts on timelines.
Oh yea any thoughts on DBC?
Also I worry about ETF's going belly up. That's a concern.
I have started selling some of the mutual funds (Fidelity Europe and Fidelity Nordic area). They have done well bc of the Euro/Krona, etc. I'm leaving my Canada fund intact bc of the Canadian dollar and its Energy rich.
Now to my point: I intend to slowly buildup more exposure to Commodities, Currencies, and Energy. Problem is that Commodities/Energies have been on a tear recently. And I feel the U.S. is going nowhere given lack of caring/corruption by Politicians and Fed Money policies.
Its difficult how commodities/Energy can continue to go at that rate without tanking the US/World economies. Increasingly they are being driven by folks like me looking for hedges.
Anyone want to predict how this will turn out in the next year and forward?
Cliffs Notes:
1. Don't have faith in the US economy and its Money Policy.
2. Switching more to currencies, commodities, Energy.
3. Looking for thoughts on timelines.
Oh yea any thoughts on DBC?
Also I worry about ETF's going belly up. That's a concern.
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Quote:
1. Don't have faith in the US economy and its Money Policy.
2. Switching more to currencies, commodities, Energy.
3. Looking for thoughts on timelines
1. It's fine to not have faith, but you can't ignore it either. I have found these guys to be pretty good: http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/index.htm (PRPFX) As stated everywhere the market will remain volatile, but there is money to be made in certain companies. I do fear if "hope" is elected, we will get whacked really hard. Like it or not the USA still the largest single economy, by far. Ignoring that does not seem like prudent advice nor does thinking we will always spiral downhill.
2. I wouldn't play currencies unless you are a knowledgeable trader, because things like alas, even the US dollar has it's day. At 62, sure you can do some very small speculation, but stick with what you know, live and breath. I think the utilities have some way to go back up after Jan/Feb. Nothing huge and immediate, I'm looking at XLU. Also, you know eventually we will need nuclear, so I'm looking at companies like PGN.
3. I know nothing of your timeline. Not sure what you mean. As soon as this summer passes and the housing thing seems to have settled out, corporate credit gets back on track, I suspect some slow but steady growth.
DBC seems expensive, but maybe has a ways to go
Have some ETF's gone belly up? I know some companies have closed a few small ones, but people get their NAV. Tell me more. Are you worried about a nuclear winter scenario or something?
1. Don't have faith in the US economy and its Money Policy.
2. Switching more to currencies, commodities, Energy.
3. Looking for thoughts on timelines
1. It's fine to not have faith, but you can't ignore it either. I have found these guys to be pretty good: http://www.permanentportfoliofunds.com/index.htm (PRPFX) As stated everywhere the market will remain volatile, but there is money to be made in certain companies. I do fear if "hope" is elected, we will get whacked really hard. Like it or not the USA still the largest single economy, by far. Ignoring that does not seem like prudent advice nor does thinking we will always spiral downhill.
2. I wouldn't play currencies unless you are a knowledgeable trader, because things like alas, even the US dollar has it's day. At 62, sure you can do some very small speculation, but stick with what you know, live and breath. I think the utilities have some way to go back up after Jan/Feb. Nothing huge and immediate, I'm looking at XLU. Also, you know eventually we will need nuclear, so I'm looking at companies like PGN.
3. I know nothing of your timeline. Not sure what you mean. As soon as this summer passes and the housing thing seems to have settled out, corporate credit gets back on track, I suspect some slow but steady growth.
DBC seems expensive, but maybe has a ways to go
Have some ETF's gone belly up? I know some companies have closed a few small ones, but people get their NAV. Tell me more. Are you worried about a nuclear winter scenario or something?
I hear what you're saying Al. Pablo's point about the election affirms your pessimism about the market (Mr. Hope could really tank it)
However, U.S. exports are growing (I'd love to see the trade deficit expressed ex. crude oil).
In any case, there is no reason to worry. The government will take care of all your needs, just not as well as you would have.
However, U.S. exports are growing (I'd love to see the trade deficit expressed ex. crude oil).
In any case, there is no reason to worry. The government will take care of all your needs, just not as well as you would have.
I've got DBC but I also picked up GCC to counter-balance it because it is lighter on oil. Oil is way too unpredictable for my taste because the price movement is so dependent on unpredictable exogenous events like political shocks and OPEC moves. No way to anticipate these events. But, I find it hard to imagine that the broader commodity indices (like agriculture and basic materials) are ending their bull run any time soon. With massive interest rate slashing, increasing global demand for food and infrastructure by emerging markets, etc. I'm willing to bet it is not ending soon. Of course, my disclaimer is if the Fed raises rates anytime soon, then I'll reduce my commodity positions. But if the Fed continues to slash, then they will create another bubble somewhere and I imagine commodities is one possibility. I'll also dump my commodity holdings when my mailman and neighbor start buying commodities. So far, they haven't yet.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Tell me more. Are you worried about a nuclear winter scenario or something?
First of all: Thanks. I did like the 3 suggestions ( PRPFX, PGN, XLU ) They fit into my comfort zone. I suppose I am worried about the Nuclear Winter. Unfortunately, as a practical matter we are all on the same Titanic with too few life rafts. But your info is what I was looking for (in addition to my own picks/thoughts). I suppose one could always tell me to seek competant financial advice. From what I am seeing though..the professionals don't get it as right as those on this board.
Thanks again
And thanks also Groucho.
Tell me more. Are you worried about a nuclear winter scenario or something?
First of all: Thanks. I did like the 3 suggestions ( PRPFX, PGN, XLU ) They fit into my comfort zone. I suppose I am worried about the Nuclear Winter. Unfortunately, as a practical matter we are all on the same Titanic with too few life rafts. But your info is what I was looking for (in addition to my own picks/thoughts). I suppose one could always tell me to seek competant financial advice. From what I am seeing though..the professionals don't get it as right as those on this board.
Thanks again
And thanks also Groucho.
Thanks Al - my worry question was more directed at your ETF concern. As in ETF's being more of a concern than other MF's, etc?? Something I'm not seeing as a risk, perhaps??
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