*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Already own a few.
I’m curious on what you’re basing this recommendation. Care to elaborate?
See above.
Fungible refers to items that tend to be interchangeable and indentical in value. AI GPUs are not interchangeable, even within a given brand. They can also have specific uses.
High-end AI chips are currently treated as scarce, differentiated products. It is fair to say the industry is moving towards commodity components and that there are commodity components. That's part of the product life cycle.
Buy the rumor sell the news more than likely.
If I can run my LLM on a chip from any of the above mentioned companies to the same affect - how is it not fungible?
Performance can vary wildly from instant to unusable depending on requirements.
My point is, the technology continues to evolve and can be specialized. Fungible inplies interchangeable.
AI chips are not interchangeable commodities. There are differences in chip architecture, software capabilities and intended use, and performance.
They both will run the same LLM There not Asics. There may be differences but there nuanced. There may be differences in speed or energy use which can be solved by price.
From the perspective of a company looking to pay for some amount of compute, there paying per unit of compute, not based on which chip provides it. Fungible.
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Will there be a surprise ROI in the near enough future to stop the Doomsday clock?
What is your guess to the last question?
My uneducated guess would be Amazon, based solely on their real world footprint size.
There are far fewer players than there were in 2001 to pick from.
Also if it happens what will the AI bust be called? Maybe AI knows the answer
I am clearly just speculating out loud and no one knows the future. However if a FLOPs (measure of compute) is cheaper at one datacenter over the other, no one will care which chip. Hence the moat the chip makers themselves claimed to have doesn't really exist. Of course if a chip maker can make and sell one cheaper, then they win - but again there goes there margin.Will there be a surprise ROI in the near enough future to stop the Doomsday clock?
What is your guess to the last question?
My uneducated guess would be Amazon, based solely on their real world footprint size.
There are far fewer players than there were in 2001 to pick from.
Also if it happens what will the AI bust be called? Maybe AI knows the answer
So assuming this is potentially accurate, there are some huge differences to 2001. For one, the big datacenter players - AWS, MSFT, GOOG have massive positive cash flows from there other businesses. There is also still a shortage of data centers so there margins are still pretty good - for now. I suspect they will at some point simply stop spending the horrific amount of money there spending on soon to be obsolete chips / datacenters. This is my guess - why play in a commodity business. This might actually cause those stocks to rise - better earnings.
In this scenario the chip makers themselves have the problem. Which again, the three above make chips as do others. Which to pick?
Comparing to 2001, the chip makers to me seem like the hard drive makers back then to me. Whomever could make the most storage for the least money was winning at that instant. Race to the bottom.
Obviously there is no way to time any of this - and they could all double from here. Which is why I consider myself a trader, not an investor. I am not married to any holding.
I need something to buy, long term in the sense of months and depending on the ride years.
Still in Walmart for over 5 years and thank GOD I didnt sell AMZN which I bought a while back (year?) around 220
However the other 1/3+ I sold at 720+ and that was META. .I was thinking I would get back in at this price 600 but my mind is not feeling the love right now, which means I should most likely buy but my brain wont let me.
Still in Walmart for over 5 years and thank GOD I didnt sell AMZN which I bought a while back (year?) around 220
However the other 1/3+ I sold at 720+ and that was META. .I was thinking I would get back in at this price 600 but my mind is not feeling the love right now, which means I should most likely buy but my brain wont let me.
- Joined
- May 5, 2018
- Messages
- 26,542
AmazingI am clearly just speculating out loud and no one knows the future. However if a FLOPs (measure of compute) is cheaper at one datacenter over the other, no one will care which chip. Hence the moat the chip makers themselves claimed to have doesn't really exist. Of course if a chip maker can make and sell one cheaper, then they win - but again there goes there margin.
So assuming this is potentially accurate, there are some huge differences to 2001. For one, the big datacenter players - AWS, MSFT, GOOG have massive positive cash flows from there other businesses. There is also still a shortage of data centers so there margins are still pretty good - for now. I suspect they will at some point simply stop spending the horrific amount of money there spending on soon to be obsolete chips / datacenters. This is my guess - why play in a commodity business. This might actually cause those stocks to rise - better earnings.
In this scenario the chip makers themselves have the problem. Which again, the three above make chips as do others. Which to pick?
Comparing to 2001, the chip makers to me seem like the hard drive makers back then to me. Whomever could make the most storage for the least money was winning at that instant. Race to the bottom.
Obviously there is no way to time any of this - and they could all double from here. Which is why I consider myself a trader, not an investor. I am not married to any holding.
I bragged you up yesterday to one of the mods here
A trader and not an investor....yup that be eye....
NVDA Already sold.
Easy $2500.
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Now I'm glad I sold SWKS yesterday!
Date
May-05-2026
Symbol SWKS
Symbol description
SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS INC
Type
Margin
Shares
-XX00.000
Price
$71.96
Today= >Skyworks Solutions $64.74
-7.82 (-10.78%)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Look at:
BINC
JAAA, PAAA, FAAA
BUXX, BILS, SGOV. GSST, etc those sort of ST bills funds
VNLA
For interest
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My loaned share money came in yesterday, over $700 for April. Easy money.
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I bought FINS and exercised my DHY rights
SEMI for the win... Lam is my old company; wifey is still there. Something about that AI stuff?
- Joined
- May 5, 2018
- Messages
- 26,542
Someone was looking for dividend stocks here not long ago. Paging whomever.
