RichlandWhere we going bro
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
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What's that old saying about the two best days in a boat owner's life?
It is not something like I made money on that deal and phew glad to be rid of that loser like the stock market
First day and last day of ownership
Labor market growth slows dramatically in August with U.S. adding just 54,000 jobs, ADP says
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/04/adp-jpb-data-august-2025.htmlIf this data is true the economy is in bad shape.
Is your employer / career field currently hiring ?
How old are you?
Unemployment will still be under 4.5%. When since 1965 has this been a problem? Inflation will cool a bit.
Yep. Plenty of applicants, very few qualified. Lots of BS'ers though.
No one is hiring. Everyone is trying to figure out what / if AI will do to their staffing needs. Little has to do with the fed / macro economy IMHO - but it is slowing also.
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Everything is beautiful ....
Probably some of this
I have mentioned in-laws that work Amazon doing database manipulation/design. Real work more or less. But also one who works for Snowflake and another at Facebook. Neither knows what they are actually supposed to be doing. These are not unintelligent people. Eventually companies- well they used to trim dead wood
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I should have invested in coffee.
With all the doom and gloom in this thread for 3.5 years. The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are at all time highs.
Everyone should’ve been making money with their eyes closed as all three indexes are up roughly 50%.
That is nothing compared to some of the best stocks in the indexes.
But even that 50% is better than any savings bank, bond funds(?) …money market funds. I don’t know. Call me crazy maybe one day I’ll be crying.
But I don’t think so, not with Meta, WMT and Amazon
Though as always, I can change my mind tomorrow. I’m not a trader just what I look at myself as conservative investor with companies that make money. Though having an entire portfolio and just three stocks is not conservative.
Pretty much that’s my mythology roughly everything divided by 1/3 (a bit less of a third on Amzn) more like 38/38/24 so not to say if I find something better one of those stocks can be changed out at any time.
Everyone should’ve been making money with their eyes closed as all three indexes are up roughly 50%.
That is nothing compared to some of the best stocks in the indexes.
But even that 50% is better than any savings bank, bond funds(?) …money market funds. I don’t know. Call me crazy maybe one day I’ll be crying.
But I don’t think so, not with Meta, WMT and Amazon
Though as always, I can change my mind tomorrow. I’m not a trader just what I look at myself as conservative investor with companies that make money. Though having an entire portfolio and just three stocks is not conservative.
Pretty much that’s my mythology roughly everything divided by 1/3 (a bit less of a third on Amzn) more like 38/38/24 so not to say if I find something better one of those stocks can be changed out at any time.
Over 50.
AI inflection point. But the other part too. Uncertainty abounds.
AI will directly affect customer service, mfg, etc but will indirectly affect just about everything from an information standpoint.
Wait till the models are honed...
Not so long ago, businesses had tons of bookkeepers and accountants. Computers, especially connected PCs, and lowly programmers retired them. AI is the logical extension but on another level altogether.
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If you look over time the big employment shifts were 100 years ago people went from agriculture (machines) to manufacturing, then over the last 30 years manufacturing has shrunk (robots and off-shoring), and you had a huge increase in healthcare, education and business services / trade. You lost some book keepers and secretaries, and added IT and other services, but those sectors were growing rapidly anyway so Net-Net employment growth continued.
So when you look at AI, obvious losses come in medical admin / billing, legal, accounting, etc. Question is what sectors will be growing? Maybe ones we don't even know about yet.
One really interesting thing - one of the largest occupations by name is "driver". Truck driver, delivery driver, uber driver, etc. So if self driving becomes a thing - that would be a giant disruptor by itself.
There will not be enough jobs to go around. This is the AI inflection point; profound societal implications.
Owen Lucas
$100 Site Donor 2023
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Whatever growth there will be, IMHO it will be the bottom line of businesses the successfully leverage AI, and this will be truly be at the cost of head count.
I've read that some CEOs are already telling their teams that they are being inefficient by hiring new employees and to lean into AI harder to increase productivity / throughput.
Real world results aren't as inspiring now, but as you mention, once the models are perfected, we will see the real carnage. The current AI models, which we look at as amazing now, will look basic in a year or 2.
The end game will be a class of unemployable people and I think it will impact medium killed white collar jobs before it trickles down to robot janitors and plumbers.
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The trucking industry displaced railroad employees, and replaced them exponentially. When/if self driving replaces those employees, the new numbers will be exponentially fewer. Quite the disruption to be sure.
The bigger issue is AI / robots don't consume. So who will drive the economy that is made up of 70% consumer spending?
Makes it easier to understand both the call for onshoring manufacturing and also UBI. Not saying I agree with the policies - just saying the dots for the urgency align.
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We may have to acquire a taste for Soylent Green
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