*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Thats exactly right. Few understand it but that but thats the case. I think we get one cut in September, with more to follow in early 25.
I vote June. September is too close to November and it will look too obvious. No Fed meeting August and I think July(?)
I suspect not. We are at historical norms. GDP down, but I don’t think out, it was just one quarter and inflation is still there.
Distinctly a possibility
This is 1 year core PCE - the fed's own favorite inflation index. There clearly is not reason based on this graph to lower rates. Or any other objective data either - CPI, GDP, whatever.
Having said that, it was clear to me in mid December that Janet is JP's boss, so he will do what he is told I suppose. What that will be is anyone's guess, but if he does lower in June, I will be buying commodities and energy hard, and really won't be concerned about 25BPS spreads in Junk debt.
Having said that, it was clear to me in mid December that Janet is JP's boss, so he will do what he is told I suppose. What that will be is anyone's guess, but if he does lower in June, I will be buying commodities and energy hard, and really won't be concerned about 25BPS spreads in Junk debt.
Excellent question, and I am not that knowledgeable on commodities outside of oil, so I would likely buy more oil stocks and spread the rest around some of the ishares ETF's for Gold, gold miners, Copper, industrial metals, etc. Lumber I think will do well but I looked into that before and its hard for a retail investor to get into. These would be short term trades. If they managed to push longer rates down I might just buy another house.
Except I don't think this will happen. At least not in June. Maybe in November
Rising long term rates gives them room to cut how exactly?
See Dave’s post.
They will have slightly more room to lower rates. Exactly as it reads. If rates are even medium they will cut rates when stuff hits the wind motivator.
Lost (as usual). Not even sure which of Dave's post you refer to? Powell legacy?
Rising long term rates signals expectation of longer term or structural inflation. Not the signal to cut short term rates. Although we both know short term rates don't matter for inflation all that much either way, at least not the small amount of bps were talking. Now if they were to go back to zero, thats different.
I agree, other than you will be 2 months too late - IMHO.I will buy 30 pieces of silver to add to my other 30 pieces of silver collection.
Expect the house of cards to come crashing down in the beginning of 2025.
I will sell everything in Jan 2025.
Crashing in what sense though? Stocks? Bonds? All risk assets? USD?
I will buy 30 pieces of silver to add to my other 30 pieces of silver collection.
Expect the house of cards to come crashing down in the beginning of 2025.
I will sell everything in Jan 2025.
All I meant, WHEN the crash happens, FED will drop rates. When have they NOT?
Oh yes for sure. And they will also do QE and lower long term rates. But hard to do that with the S&P at 5000.
USD/JPY blowing out. Almost $157
It’s a sophisticated technique that requires a great deal of care. Leverage works both ways. It can wipe you out quickly. So, for someone who is carefully investing using it, and fully engaged, perhaps.
A good friend, a retired Marine, trades futures and options. Every day. Every day he gets up at 05:00, reads the WSJ, watches all the financial news channels, and puts his orders in before the market open, then goes fishing (the fishing part is on most days, not all).
He does well. He no longer needs to work.
But when you look at the hours he puts into the effort, it is nearly a full time job.
For him, sure, trade on margin, he is a full time investor.
But for the other 99% of us? We aren’t paying close enough attention.
It does allow one to sell naked CALLS. The RISK is you gotta choke up the shares($) if executed......now you could just have the cash, or buy the shares after the option - but just in case neither, margin $.
