Looks like those High Interest Rates are kick'n in .
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
- Start date
Fair enough; I would agree, in investment speak.
The key difference between investment and speculation, in investment speak, is the amount of risk and timeline. An investment is gaining an asset with the expectation of making a profit over some period of time.
Buying individual stocks is not a good defensive strategy, IMO.
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Speculation vs Investing ..... I think depends on the stock or index your talking about .
Example : Bristol Myers vs Some Biotech Company working on a cancer drug or
S&P 500 vs Bitcoin
Yes. You and @SC Maintenance point out that speculation is defined as short term, high risk, "get rich quick" investing.
Investments are more like an nice index fund.
I over simplified the comparison.
People need to buy what they believe in. If they don't have their own thesis and convictions there better off giving their money to Vanguard et al. They have a lot of mine still since its locked in my employers 401.
Investing means assessing the risks and being paid for those risks. 0DTE derivative - definitely speculation. I don't consider my XOM stock speculation, but there is definitely risk, and I am paid to take that risk with hope for outsized returns. I did sell some a few months ago because it had appreciated to being more than I wanted in my basket.
As for defensive - is the S&P500, with the top 7 stocks being 28% of the value, with the equal weighted version being completely flat for 18 months, and with 50+ % of its value in passive flows defensive?
Investing means assessing the risks and being paid for those risks. 0DTE derivative - definitely speculation. I don't consider my XOM stock speculation, but there is definitely risk, and I am paid to take that risk with hope for outsized returns. I did sell some a few months ago because it had appreciated to being more than I wanted in my basket.
As for defensive - is the S&P500, with the top 7 stocks being 28% of the value, with the equal weighted version being completely flat for 18 months, and with 50+ % of its value in passive flows defensive?
Interesting, though I dont think I will live long enough as far as global adoption. I was just reading about your XOM regarding H2. Which I personally think will play a big role in the future, but again, maybe not my future with my time left on earth and honestly not making predictions on what form or how H2 will be used. Seems like they know though.
Anyway, not sure if you knew and this is not a thread for the H2 debate but just as an investing subject it has merit I think, though we are way ahead of the curve right now.
https://www.reuters.com/business/en...cale-hydrogen-plant-start-up-2027-2023-01-30/
Ps, I didnt know this was old news (1 year ago) but instead of putting the word "delete" in my post I'll leave it.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidb...rbon-hydrogen-hub-at-baytown/?sh=341bba5a762f
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Just reading through the word defensive made me think, what's everyone's definition of "defensive" in the context of that question. Is it protecting from loss in the short run, protecting from loss in the long run, is it protecting from performing worse than the market in the long run, in the short run, etc.
My "defensive" is (today) one large company that has a track record of the last 50 years, one of constant growth with even more potential (WMT)
The other is speculating for the short term (weeks or months at a time) of a tight trading range, P/E of this company in always low that gets no love but if played right can return double digit returns if you are disciplined (GM)
Granted these stocks right now are the entire portfolio in a SPECULATIVE Roth. I was also heavy in TMUS until I sold it sometime last year, did ok with it and I see it is still doing very well. Wish I didnt sell it, no I take that back.
I do have a company 401k that is just index funds, long term it is hard to beat the indexes and why I like them. I just leave it and rarely look at it.
Although I dont see myself as knowledgeable as some in here as far as investment vehicles. Im not ignorant either and at a point in my life that sometimes basics pays off pretty well if your disciplined.
We are past the point of no return. Meaning we have been so wasteful putting off the inevitable that great suffering is going to take place at some point in the future OR it will be generations long of stagnation while we wrestle the beast of debt that we voted for just so we didnt get uncomfortable. We still do not have the will to do anything about it, I bet we get closer to 50 trillion. The only time when it will be dealt with is when the camels back gets broken and we have no choice. It's just the way we operate now, we vote for free stuff without demanding it get paid for.
Great article !
Defensive, to me, is long term. It also depends on your age and portfolio.
1st is housing; ya gotta have a place to hang your hat. And fix what needs fixing; you won't be working forever. Due to high CA energy costs, a solar project made sense. It has paid off far better than calculations suggested. My goal was to minimize recurring costs as time progressed.
You will need something to supplement Social Security and Medicare. Be prepared.
Back off on riskier investments once you are in position to do so.
Once this is done, if your situation permits, riskier products may play a role.
My goal was to get to this point. The most defensive product I own is a double tax free CA Muni Bond fund; I could live on this and Social Security.
XOM does a lot of things. They own or lease fields all over the world, but I honestly don’t pay much attention. Their price goes up and down with a barrel of oil. They have a very low production cost and even when it’s low they have no problem paying their bonds and there dividend which they have raised 42 years in a row. So when it gets cheap enough, I buy it and they pay me a hefty dividend to sit on it, which I may do for years, and then, eventually their price goes way up and I sell it. Rinse/repeat.
2/20/24-
WMT, I don’t think we could ask for better earning news but details scare and need to be dissected. Even though I’m thrilled its PE its on the high side. So it’s good that expectations have been widely beat.
Up 3% pre market at this post.
Going to be a fun next few weeks to see how it all shakes out as the 3 for 1 split takes place this week too.
Once again I feel safe in that I won’t take a bath and has been good to me since around 2018/19. I rounded out the amount I own from those years with a purchase of more in last Mondays market downturn along with some GM.
BTW so far so good but I don’t let myself forever fall in love with any company it’s just in 5 years it has proved safe to me and I really like that. If that ever changed I would sell in a heartbeat
WMT, I don’t think we could ask for better earning news but details scare and need to be dissected. Even though I’m thrilled its PE its on the high side. So it’s good that expectations have been widely beat.
Up 3% pre market at this post.
Going to be a fun next few weeks to see how it all shakes out as the 3 for 1 split takes place this week too.
Once again I feel safe in that I won’t take a bath and has been good to me since around 2018/19. I rounded out the amount I own from those years with a purchase of more in last Mondays market downturn along with some GM.
BTW so far so good but I don’t let myself forever fall in love with any company it’s just in 5 years it has proved safe to me and I really like that. If that ever changed I would sell in a heartbeat
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Not a bash on WMT - but same store sales were up 4.0%, but CPI is up 3.35% - so really 0.65%. And foot traffic was up 1.1%. I would say the consumer is tapped out.
The split will likely be good for the stock if the market holds up. If the market looks good on friday I may buy some for a very short trade?
The split will likely be good for the stock if the market holds up. If the market looks good on friday I may buy some for a very short trade?
It's all good, we all have our reasons to buy or not buy. My statements have always been WMT for stability and a reasonable return over time. Also an investment I feel safe with. Long term, it just slowly moves up, crisis, economy, covid etc. I dont get concerned about the economy because when middle class and upper feel stressed the more they go to Walmart. But key here is the CEO is pretty pragmatic and forthcoming to forward looking statements compared to lets dare I say Tesla?
I dont see risk if you can hold for the short periods of small down turns. I do hope longer term it MIGHT be more than that. Lots of stuff going on, I dont pay attention much to dissecting stats because they are so large I cant put faith in any one number. Such as e-commerce up 23% globally, advertising up double digits, Walmart Family Medicine... etc.
Also, the key is it beat all Wallstreet estimates.
So its ok to bash *LOL* Who knows, its up 5% right now in the first 20 minutes and can end up down on the day, either way, Im way ahead just for last Monday additional rounding out shares to my original shares I paid in the $90 range. This will be the first time in my life (believe it or not) that I held a stock long enough that the shares are actually splitting. *LOL*
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/walmart-wmt-q4-2024-earnings-.html
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I should have said my comments were not really related to WMT.
WMT sales are up 0.65% when adjusted for inflation. I believe WMT stats more than the BLS. This was for Q4, which should be pretty definitive. In my mind that seems to indicate the consumer isn't exactly strong. Of course there not declining either.
I presume WMT will hold these gains, and may do well long term because the consumer trade down will continue.
Yes, Doug McMillon (I like this guy BTW, do you know he started out I think working part time in a Walmart Warehouse?)
Mentions this often as times get tough. Middle Class and Higher start turning to WMT to save money.
The next 20 years are going to be historical in the USA. We cant keep running the country and boasting the economy by borrowing money.
There is some truth in this. But despite you guys not getting it - people such as my wife go down a rung to Target, and just sometimes WMT.
Not saying Target is investable (have not looked) just saying it's full of chicks of all ages flush with money. That said also - this theory didn't work for me with Uniglo when I saw people lined up to throw money at the stores in USA and Canada. I mean lots of money.
