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Ok, I didn’t realize what the penalties were. Thanks
*Investors Blog*
- Thread starter Warstud
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The early withdraw penalties may vary, so if you go the CD route checkout the fine print.
Also the level of risk OP is willing to take ?
Good to read OP is no longer a landlord.
I always imagined you were 10 years younger…
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I’ve always been a buy and hold, type. I imagine I can stomach some pretty sharp downturns. I’ve had a portfolio consisting of 90% s@p 500 and 10% bonds for probably over a decade. I have another portfolio in around 70% S&P 500, the rest in healthcare, reits, growth funds and only around 7% split between gold miners and bonds. I haven’t rebalanced a thing in ten years or so.
But it’s not like I could handle five years of downturns either. But I’m fine with gaining 20% one year, losing 20% the next and ending up with a 7% return after a few years. I guess I’d call myself somewhat aggressive. Not sure.
You will need to determine your own goals and your own risk tollerance. 500K at a brokerage will get you a 60/40 canned account, which isn't a bad way to go if you don't want to worry about it.
For the cash portion, you might wish to consider treasury's - T-bills specifically (<52 weeks) pay over 5%, incur no state income tax if you hold to maturity. If you buy them in a brokerage account you can sell them early at market if you really want (but then its a capital gain, which means you do pay state income tax) and there is no fine print. There is also no risk - the US treasury owes you money. If they can't pay were all hosed.
Used to be. I am a late bloomer, if that helps. Happily retired.
I think I've posted I got my 1st degree at 40.
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Did you know that "qualified" dividends have their own special rules for federal income tax? The dividends of many "Preferred Stocks" are "qualified", so you could be collecting a dividend as big as 9% and pay little or no tax on it, depending on your income? This is especially good news for many retirees because part of Social Security is not taxable and you could fall into the no tax zone on qualified dividends. Many preferred stocks issued by banks and other financial institutions are qualified.
I love the 1st of the month when rates are relatively high.
There I said it.
There I said it.
Any update on the recession monitor?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/01/walmart-says-it-is-not-advertising-on-social-platform-x.html
More companies avoiding X platform.
More companies avoiding X platform.
Its gonna be a dewzy
JHZR2
Staff member
And the thing is, look at the actual domestic market. If not for like seven or so companies, the rest aren’t doing as well or driving big rises in the markets. More like international. When the drivers of the domestic markets tide rising start to reverse, the rest of the US market that didn’t see the huge gains will go too. International will stagnate or rise.
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On the flip side (playing devils advocate), the rates may actually drop next year, and probably will. When that happens, what looks like a recession (or minor recession) may bounce and delay it even further. Yet I truly can’t see how we aren’t headed for a recession.
You would absolutely think that this thing is coming and coming BIG. Yet the last month has bounced it right back up to a 19%-20% gain for the year.
I watched an interesting video last night...to dollar cost average or go lump sum. The guy did a nice job explaining that perhaps a hybrid model would be better. If you have 100k to invest, take half of it and drop it at a point where you think it’s a good time (the bottom or a downturn). And DCA all the other months until the remaining 100k is gone. He said, if you choose the lump sum approach, you’ll hesitate, not be able to time it right, and find yourself stuck behind as the market decides to climb. The other thought process is every so often, and it’s not often, there is MAJOR events that destroys the market - these events I’ve always wanted to drop a large sum in, but I chickened out every single time. 911, tech bubble, 2007, covid. I chickened out every single time. I won’t miss out next time, but yet I don’t want to sit around for ten years waiting either. I bought boeing days after 911, and I checked out after a few weeks and sold it. I was young. I paid $34 dollars a share. I sold it for $37. It’s $233 right now, at one point it was $404.
Been reading and listening to a lot on the lag affect. Macro economist types - Dr. Lacy Hunt, Daniel Dimartino Booth, etc. There basic thesis - the lag affect takes 6 quarters to affect companies.
Rates going up don't affect businesses that have bonds until those bonds need to be rolled. Most businesses refinanced in 2001 when rates were 0. Even BBB was paying like 3%. If BBB has to refinance now its 8%. Most of these roll in 2024 / 2025. Even if rates drop there not going to zero. At the same time, the treasury ran their general fund way down in 2023, and there refilling it now - this was like a type of stimulus, which has now become a drag. The employee retention credit from the pandemic pumped $300B of cash into the economy in 2023 - its finally stopped. Student loan repayments re-started.
They don't go so far as to predict a date, but all seem to think one is coming. IMHO, were running a deficit of 7% of GDP, and have 5% GDP growth. Doesn't that mean the private sector is already in recession?
The good news is it will kill inflation likely. Anyone have a recommendation on what utility stocks to buy?
Rates going up don't affect businesses that have bonds until those bonds need to be rolled. Most businesses refinanced in 2001 when rates were 0. Even BBB was paying like 3%. If BBB has to refinance now its 8%. Most of these roll in 2024 / 2025. Even if rates drop there not going to zero. At the same time, the treasury ran their general fund way down in 2023, and there refilling it now - this was like a type of stimulus, which has now become a drag. The employee retention credit from the pandemic pumped $300B of cash into the economy in 2023 - its finally stopped. Student loan repayments re-started.
They don't go so far as to predict a date, but all seem to think one is coming. IMHO, were running a deficit of 7% of GDP, and have 5% GDP growth. Doesn't that mean the private sector is already in recession?
The good news is it will kill inflation likely. Anyone have a recommendation on what utility stocks to buy?
DCA is better for me going forward. I got lucky with some nice entry / exit points over the past 20 years.
- 2000 Dot Com bubble I lost $50K
100% my fault for being a dumb-dumb- 2001 Sept 11th attacks I stayed in and DCA
- 2007-2009 housing bust I stayed in and DCA
- 2010-2019 DCA in all accounts (90% ETFs / 10% individual stocks) big AMZN position
- 2019 late in the year I went heavy cash. I’ve spoken about this in the past and even sent a few PMs to some folks on here asking them if they were starting to get antsy with all the bad economic news.
$100B in nightly Fed bank repos, bank repos were increasing exponentially and it got me very worried, lots of debt bubbles, Warren Buffett having $130B cash on the sidelines (What did he know ?
). Yield inversion, long haul big rig truckers saying economy is slowing down, CSX parking locomotives, etc…- 2020 Covid shut down and markets tanked. Luckily I was about 80% cash and simply DCA back in.
Gov helicopter money and various stimulus really kicked things into overdrive. Trillions pumped into system and people were paid to stay home and stimulate the economy.
- 2022 Ukrainian War and I had a BIG position in 3X natural gas & 3X oil. Made very good money.
- 2023 my cash enjoying these higher Fed rates
You mentioned selling Boeing. I had immediately sold all my Boeing in 2013 just as the first report of 787 battery issues. I was hoping the FAA grounding of all 787 jets would hurt BA stock but it didn’t, their stock kept flying (no pun intended) higher and higher.
I sold BA and piled all that cash in AMZN increasing my holdings. My BA mistake turned out for the better.
Sometimes having a strategy pays off. I have a little casino cash for unexpected buying opportunities and not afraid of a momentum trade….. flavor of the month type hot stocks.
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