*Investors Blog*

Wow ......look at what the Bank Selloff did to the VIX

Screenshot 2023-03-10 at 16-57-40 Public ChartLists StockCharts.com.webp
 
Next week could be interesting. Old man said inflation not hot.....

Imagine how much worse inflation would be if oil was not drained from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ?

I absolutely love Dr Doom and he takes the words out of my mouth describig all the problems we are facing that folks on TV say to ignore.

He called out CZ at a crypto conference and did not hold back destroying him. (y)


 
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Imagine how much worse inflation would be if oil was not drained from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ?

I absolutely love Dr Doom and he takes the words out of my mouth to all the problems we are facing that folks on TV say to ignore.

He called out CZ at a crypto conference and did not hold back destroying him. (y)



The SPR release lowered gas by about $0.25 per gallon. Not groundbreaking.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0887


Fun fact, under Obama US gas and oil production increased more than under any other president in history - a nearly 100% increase.

"Between 2009 and 2015 oil production had increased by 4.4 million BPD. This was the fastest increase in oil production in U.S. history, and marked the largest increase in oil production during a single term of any president. If natural gas liquids (NGLs) are included, the gains during Obama’s first seven years were 6 million BPD. U.S. net imports of finished products like gasoline turned into net exports during Obama’s second term, and next imports of finished products plus crude oil fell by over 6 million BPD."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...-the-last-nine-us-presidents/?sh=5ab111671a8b
 
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Gasoline and diesel dropped much more than 25¢ per gallon at the pump here in Florida soon after Biden release from SPR. This is a fact.

I don’t know about your area / region of the country.

I was constantly looking at gas / diesel prices online at Loves, Flying J, RaceTrac here in Florida and California about twice a day and prices no doubt dropped waaaay more than 25¢ per gallon.

Diesel in California was almost $7 per gallon before Biden SPR release…… I just checked website now and it’s $5.50 a gallon. I very closely follow the trucking industry and when truckers complain about diesel prices, I follow the prices daily. I’m not kidding. 100% of American economy revolves around the trucking industry and I’ve invested money based on what long haul truckers talk about.

Some people can laugh at that statement, but I have the screenshots.


I respectfully 100% disagree with gas / diesel only dropping 25¢ per gallon. ZERO possibility that it only dropped 25¢.
 
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Gasoline and diesel dropped much more than 25¢ per gallon at the pump here in Florida soon after release from SPR.

I don’t know about your area / region of the country.

I was constantly looking at gas / diesel prices online at Loves, Flying J, RaceTrac here in Florida and California about twice a day and prices no doubt dropped waaaay more than 25¢ per gallon.

Diesel in California was almost $7 per gallon before SPR release…… I just checked website now and it’s $5.50 a gallon. I very closely follow the trucking industry and when truckers complain about diesel prices, I follow the prices daily. I’m not kidding. 100% of American economy revolves around the trucking industry and I’ve invested money based on what long haul truckers talk about.

Some people can laugh at that statement, but I have the screenshots.


I respectfully 100% disagree with gas / diesel only dropping 25¢ per gallon. ZERO possibility that it dropped 25¢.
Yes, there were other market forces at work too. Did you read the link?

"There are additional factors that could also impact crude prices. First, some of the sales were anticipated in advance. Second, private US crude stocks have increased by 17 million barrels from a low on March 25 to the most recent value on July 15. The impact of these factors is likely second order and not accounted for in our analysis."

"Following this action, the Department of Energy is in the process of releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR over six months while International Energy Administration (IEA) partners are releasing an additional 60 million barrels".

Additionally, gas demand falls in the fall and winter and it's fallen from its height in July 2021 in general. That probably had the largest impact on price.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1320443/average-monthly-us-gasoline-consumption/
 
A look at what Buffet recently sold : What do they have in common ?

Sold: U.S. Bancorp (USB)​

Buffett has a long history of big bets on bank stocks. In the first quarter of 2022, Berkshire sold off its last remaining shares of Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) after more than 20 years of holding the stock, leaving U.S. Bancorp as Berkshire's longest-running bank stock holding. Buffett first invested in U.S. Bancorp back in 2006, but he trimmed his stake by 31% in the third quarter and another 91% in the fourth quarter. Berkshire now holds just 6.6 million shares of USB stock worth $290.9 million, and Buffett may completely exit the position in the first quarter.

Sold: Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK)​

Bank of New York Mellon is a trust bank, which means it has a unique business model that includes managing cash for large investment funds, providing day-to-day funding for large corporations and serving as a fixed-income clearing firm. The bank generates much of its income from transaction fees. Buffett first invested in BK stock back in 2010, but he reduced his stake by another 59% in the fourth quarter after selling 14% of his shares in the third quarter. Berkshire now holds about 25 million shares of BK stock worth roughly $1.1 billion.

Sold: Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)​

Ally Financial is a financial holding company that specializes in auto financing and mortgage lending. Ally shares dropped 47% in 2022 as supply shortages hit the auto market and rising mortgage rates weighed on the housing market. Buffett passed on the opportunity to buy the dip in the fourth quarter, instead reducing his stake by 200,000 shares. Ally shares are up 34.6% year to date in 2023 through Feb. 14, thanks to a fourth-quarter earnings beat in January. Fortunately, Berkshire still holds 29.8 million shares of ALLY stock worth about $728.6 million, making Ally a top Berkshire performer in 2023.

Now we know why Buffet sold some of his Bank holdings .😃
 
First Republic Bank, you know, that evil media extravaganza that trashed it yesterday?
Pre-market its up 60% so far. (not a mis-print)
Oh well Schwab I felt good about and it is good but is only up 12%, still not bad after owning it for 5 minutes before the market closed yesterday.
 
First Republic Bank, you know, that evil media extravaganza that trashed it yesterday?
Pre-market its up 60% so far. (not a mis-print)
Oh well Schwab I felt good about and it is good but is only up 12%, still not bad after owning it for 5 minutes before the market closed yesterday.
Sure but at that point its a casino bet. No one knows whats on its balance sheet except those with insider knowledge. I have done similar stupidity - sometimes it works, sometimes not - don't bet any more than you would take to Vegas.
 
Sure but at that point its a casino bet. No one knows whats on its balance sheet except those with insider knowledge. I have done similar stupidity - sometimes it works, sometimes not - don't bet any more than you would take to Vegas.


That’s the key to proper investing. The 4% rule is a prudent one.
 
Meta staffing in 2019 was 45K

Meta staffing in 2022 was 86K - at least to start.

Not the only reason, but these guys all geared up thinking being locked at home was here to stay, so now there all way overstaffed. Twitter seems still functional and how many did they part with?

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/...s total number of,a 30.4% increase from 2019.
 
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