*Investors Blog*

Can't help but wonder who is the spin master author from Visa when this was Visa's big line just a few weeks ago when Visa signed an agreement with FTX:

""The payments processor has increasingly embraced the emerging cryptoverse, having recently praised non-fungible tokens for their ability to strengthen the speed of commerce.""

Strengthen the speed of commerce. LOL.


Seems like it was not about commerce at all.
 
I wait for the trend to be confirmed. One month is not it.
Dave and Pim, inflation right now reminds me of a Silverado movie quote by Scott Glenn, playing Emmitt : "You be careful. You're in it now. It's gonna get mean."
IMO, and I hope I'm wrong, we aren't even at the end of the opening stage of inflation. It's gonna get mean.
 
Dave and Pim, inflation right now reminds me of a Silverado movie quote by Scott Glenn, playing Emmitt : "You be careful. You're in it now. It's gonna get mean."
IMO, and I hope I'm wrong, we aren't even at the end of the opening stage of inflation. It's gonna get mean.


Generally speaking, inflation is curbed by raising interest rates and controlling spending. One half of that is being done as we speak. The other half is still on wide open throttle.
 
Generally speaking, inflation is curbed by raising interest rates and controlling spending. One half of that is being done as we speak. The other half is still on wide open throttle.
PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.
 
PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.


I am not talking about the general public.
 
PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.
I have seen several articles lately that indicate between $1 and $1.7T. Most of it is in the hands of the upper middle class - which is why you might be seeing it in well to do places - the poor don't fly.

Its getting burned off pretty quick. Amazon is laying off 10K - right before the holiday. I trust their analytics better than anyone - they have direct access to the consumer, and the definite ability to crunch numbers.

1668460337994.jpg
 
PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.
To add to that my wife and I find it amazing how packed the restaurants always are here even after large price increases on the menus.
It’s insane if you plan on going out to dinner without calling ahead as you will be sitting around at least an hour.

Oh and the new car lots are still empty we have noticed inventory coming in but it seems to go out the door as fast as they get them in.

I do think the tide is about to turn and I hope the Fed doesn’t overdo it on interest rates, really do they ever get things right
 
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I have seen several articles lately that indicate between $1 and $1.7T. Most of it is in the hands of the upper middle class - which is why you might be seeing it in well to do places - the poor don't fly.

Its getting burned off pretty quick. Amazon is laying off 10K - right before the holiday. I trust their analytics better than anyone - they have direct access to the consumer, and the definite ability to crunch numbers.

1668462110302.png
Looking at that "Personal Savings Rate" graph, seems that people have basically burned through their excess savings that started building up in the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. If they are still spending like crazy and now only saving ~3% of their disposable income, then that could signify that people are closer to living "paycheck to paycheck" now because of inflation and the resulting higher cost of living. Anyone with a logical mind for budgeting and spending money would realize that they need to stop spending money recklessly as inflation keeps going up and up. Only a fool with their money would keep blowing money on frivolous purchases.
 
PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.
Exactly. Basic Economics teaches us prices will tend to rise until consumption falls to unacceptable levels. Then you get into producers slowing output to increase scarcity. And much more...

Industries with higher inflation are able to increase profits more than industries with lower inflation, simply because prices for their industry are higher.
Government tools (basically Fed's federal runds rate) are slow to affect inflation rates, at best.
 
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PT,

I fly/travel a lot. Every single seat on every single flight is generally full. Even with the price of fuel, many major airlines are recording record profits- the airlines on a MACRO level are the most profitable in their history. And the prices of flights are often double than just a year ago, yet every seat is sold. I read somewhere today the American people still have Five Trillion Dollars in excess cash to spend.

With that kind of money in one's pocket- not sure how anyone can curb inflation.


Thinking about this some more, have the airlines fully recovered and are they flying the same number of flights now versus in 2018 pre pandemic?

I have a good friend that is a captain for Delta. They are still short on pilots and as a result a number of flights are not fulfilled. He is busy even during his off time as he will get called in.

So I believe your statement that flights are full but is that due to less flights in the air? I don’t have those numbers unfortunately.
 
Thank you WMT, slow and steady it moves but in my opinion safe and secure. Nice earning/sales beat this morning. Besides the 3 billion dollar one time charge for opioid settlement. This country has gone nuts with litigation but whatever, not the forum for that and the public pays for it.
 
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Thinking about this some more, have the airlines fully recovered and are they flying the same number of flights now versus in 2018 pre pandemic?

I have a good friend that is a captain for Delta. They are still short on pilots and as a result a number of flights are not fulfilled. He is busy even during his off time as he will get called in.

So I believe your statement that flights are full but is that due to less flights in the air? I don’t have those numbers unfortunately.
PT,

Yes, good analysis- some aircraft are still grounded across the world. Mainly older widebodies that are the least fuel efficient.

On the other hand, new aircraft with more capacity per like airframe are being put into the system daily. An example is the 737 MAX can now seat up to 230 PAX (how painful to be a PAX in that configuration), replacing 737s that seated thirty percent less PAX. And doubling down on the 737 MAX comparison- the 737 MAX was grounded in 2019 and put back into service late 2020.

All I can say- even at your homeport of SEA, every flight is full, every gate is full. Heck, walk through SEA at 10pm any night of the week and the place is jam packed with DEPARTING passengers heading to the east coast.

I sometimes wonder if capacity of all industries on a MACRO level increased profits as barriers to entry have reduced new competition from entering the marketplace. Who would have thought how things post MAR 2020 could turn so very profitable for some enterprises. Make less product, sell for much higher margins, more profitable than selling a lot of products, and no threat of competition taking away market share.
 
I sometimes wonder if capacity of all industries on a MACRO level increased profits as barriers to entry have reduced new competition from entering the marketplace. Who would have thought how things post MAR 2020 could turn so very profitable for some enterprises. Make less product, sell for much higher margins, more profitable than selling a lot of products, and no threat of competition taking away market share.
Consolidation is a natural occurance as an industry matures. When I started in SEMI, there were 4 large and hundreds of niche tool companies. Now there are Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA-Tencor. There are a few smaller companies, like Mattson, but not like the old days.

This is why Economics teaches us disrupters will emerge, offering viable alternatives. Industries consolidate and evolve into near monopolies. Sometimes governments will step in, but we are in a global economy. Look at today; if anything America is eperiencing far less inflation than much of the world. But some industries (think big oil) are sold on the world market.
 
BUTT WAIT - THERE'S MORE

Now GOOG maybe


Activist hedge fund TCI Fund Management called on Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG 3.55%increase; green up pointing triangle
to aggressively cut costs and reduce losses in long-term bets such as the self-driving car unit Waymo, claiming the company would be more efficient with fewer employees.

London-based TCI, which said it owned shares worth more than $6 billion in Alphabet, made the requests in a letter to Chief Executive Sundar Pichai on Tuesday, writing that it has been a significant shareholder since 2017.

“We are writing to express our view that the cost base of Alphabet is too high and management needs to take aggressive action,” TCI wrote in the letter, signed by Managing Director Christopher Hohn. “The company has too many employees and the cost per employee is too high.”
Alphabet didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

 
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