*Investors Blog*

There was some conversation about analysts. I mentioned they are no more than weather forecasters, actually forecasters are much more accurate. No one seems to keep track of how many times they are wrong, even huge fund managers when we all know simple index funds beat most of them.
So this is how easy the public lets them off the hook, just like the weatherman.

Keep in mind Tesla peaked at roughly $400 a share, at roughly $275ish or whatever the "famous" Cathie Woods was big on Tesla, her ark fund to this day still buying it which is maybe smart since she sho grossly overpaid for it already.
Ok, then we have Forbes, oh, well, what do you know, just out of nowhere today, they reduce their price target by 25% TWENTY FIVE PERCENT on TESLA and in the same article remain bullish.
So all I say is dont listen to the double talk from these people. DO we accept now, being off by a whopping 25% of your money their new target price? It's easy to keep adjusting your numbers down! Until you get to the point that one day you will be right *LOL* and the public forgets all the wrong! I cant help wonder what Forbes price target might have been when it was $300 a share, its never mentioned by these companies how many times they are wrong.

So today, Forbes remains bullish on the stock but for all the people that follow them you just lost a fortune because they changed their price target from $272 a share to $217 ... *LOL* cant make this stuff up and let's be honest, Im just using them as the most recent minutes ago price adjustment. Never mind people who may have followed people like Cathie Woods on Tesla, sure Cathie, someday you will be proven right, now that you lost 50 plus % of your investment in Tesla. Now that Forbes cut its price it MIGHT be a good time to buy! *LOL* and I am not kidding!

(im not picking on Tesla, its just the news stock of the year, they do this all the time) drive me nuts...
Tesla is so beat up I almost want to buy it but long term I dont believe in it. To me, if they were the low cost producer from the start (like an Amazon of the auto industry) I might have but I cant help feel they are going to get run over by low cost producers.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...tive-on-the-stock/?sh=19fa78c5302f#open-web-0
 
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Tesla getting hammered today. 🫣 🤕😵‍💫

I was thinking new year….. new optimism for Tesla.

Tesla still waaaaaay overpriced.
 
I wonder if Elon still feels the same today as he did back in May 2020….. ?


75D9F2D3-A901-4B57-BEFB-2D42CE035D71.png
 
Pablo said:
Maybe. Only bought 100 shares.

Flat so far.

TSLA maybe overpriced.

AMZN not so much.

LT trade anyway.
Click to expand...
oh, I thought you were kidding... I have some play money and actually thought about buying a little to kill the boredom here in our temporary apartment while our new house is under construction.
This was my reasoning for fun. I do think over time (and I could be flat out wrong) Tesla will be priced close to the legacy automakers P/E ratios. But that is just me, we all know my feelings.
At the same time there are many retail investors who will look at this as a bargain right now and maybe run it up even 10 or 20%... meaning never say never but there were people paying 50,60,70, 80, 90, 100 times earnings... who may buy in to average things out think, like Cathie Woods is doing. SO a short term, like one week return of 10 or 15% sounds nice but ...

Sometimes I think too much... :unsure: and most likely just watch.
Now, amazon hmmmm ... I thought is interesting one, car companies are a dime a dozen but online retailers are more limited. (think, Walmart and Best Buy) who knows... even though I hate Amazon, I do use them and I know most people love them.
Let's see if the FED once again after being too late to the game is also to late to end these increases.
 
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alarmguy,

Best not to buy anything right now and wait for the rug pull. When will that happen ?

I don’t know when it will happen but I’m hunkering down, checking weather radar and building my cash position.
 
Dave Hess said:
alarmguy,

Best not to buy anything right now and wait for the rug pull. When will that happen ?

I don’t know when it will happen but I’m hunkering down, checking weather radar and building my cash position.
Click to expand...
Interesting “story” I’m always skeptical of the media, and I have not looked any further into this other than what I just read, I’m assuming there is some truth to it
According to the story, fourth-quarter new orders were actually down from the previous quarter and down year over year. Anyway, this guy is a known Tesla bear and has been forever but it looks like there may be some valid points here and again I’m not reading any more into it right now I just happened to be sitting on the couch looking at the news.

What I’m trying to say is if this is correct, that’s really bad news for a high flying stock that was supposed to have according to the CEO an “epic” quarter and here this guy is saying fourth-quarter sales orders are actually down from the previous quarter and the previous year.

https://stocks.apple.com/AHqDNwVcHQfq2_WBSCNgMcw

This is what caught my attention, and I know this stuff is already known, but in the mess of things, sometimes one can forget=

“This is a company that’s valued for tremendous growth,” Johnson said. “They’re valued at around two times Toyota. Toyota sells 11 million cars a year; Tesla sells 1.3 million cars a year. So if they’re valued at double Toyota, then they should be growing significantly, right? But they’re not.”

Anyway, this is all in fun watching and observing when it was flying high at 100 times earnings. I thought that was insane, that turned out to be correct what it does from here, short term is anyone’s guess.

It really depends on the public who drove it up to these insane valuations. The question is, did they learned a lesson? Including many funds.
Long-term I don’t see why it would be valued any differently from any other car company as far as the price/earnings ratio.
It’s just a car.
 
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Sometimes it's a bullish contrarian sign when everyone thinks a stock should be lower.

Yeah I AM better off than those HODL's since whatever over $200/share, but that is no refuge from the prowling bear. I just muzzle the risk by keeping the allocation low and NOT doubling down on the way down. If Hess calls a bottom, maybe I'll go 200 shares wooohoo!!
 
Pablo said:
Sometimes it's a bullish contrarian sign when everyone thinks a stock should be lower.

Yeah I AM better off than those HODL's since whatever over $200/share, but that is no refuge from the prowling bear. I just muzzle the risk by keeping the allocation low and NOT doubling down on the way down. If Hess calls a bottom, maybe I'll go 200 shares wooohoo!!
Click to expand...
I kind of feel the same way, although who knows with tesla and this economy? But I think when people start targeting a bottom, it may already be here, and you missed. Then again, like I said, I probably was thinking the same thing when Tesla was $150 a share...and I think I said at the time...now might not be a bad time to dollar cost average in. And look what happened! It dropped nearly 30% since. So, do I dollar cost average now? When people are saying this is a $18 dollar automaker stock and nothing more?? Because I don’t think that’s ^^^ really the case either, right? Maybe I should start buying at around $108?

I have friends that do this stuff for a living (manage funds/portfolios). It’s their business, it’s all they do. It’s their job. And they feel very strongly about Tesla - told me they are increasing their position on Tesla (back a few weeks ago when it was $150), with a warning that yes, it is a volatile stock, and yes, they have sold the stock before, BUT with strong belief that this company is much more than just an automaker. And now I really don’t know what to think, but I keep thinking I should buy.
 
doublebase said:
I kind of feel the same way, although who knows with tesla and this economy? But I think when people start targeting a bottom, it may already be here, and you missed. Then again, like I said, I probably was thinking the same thing when Tesla was $150 a share...and I think I said at the time...now might not be a bad time to dollar cost average in. And look what happened! It dropped nearly 30% since. So, do I dollar cost average now? When people are saying this is a $18 dollar automaker stock and nothing more?? Because I don’t think that’s ^^^ really the case either, right? Maybe I should start buying at around $108?

I have friends that do this stuff for a living (manage funds/portfolios). It’s their business, it’s all they do. It’s their job. And they feel very strongly about Tesla - told me they are increasing their position on Tesla (back a few weeks ago when it was $150), with a warning that yes, it is a volatile stock, and yes, they have sold the stock before, BUT with strong belief that this company is much more than just an automaker. And now I really don’t know what to think, but I keep thinking I should buy.
Click to expand...
To be analytical I would ask those friends how they felt about Tesla when it was $400 a share, then, $350, then $300, Then $250, Then $200 ect.
Not in anyway to discount anything your friends say but it sounds like they are speculating because the hard numbers and facts do not reflect what they are saying at this point.
A "strong belief" can be very dangerous or very rewarding but it's not based on fact and why it can be very dangerous or very rewarding.
I use this example a lot, look up Cathie Woods and her ARK her fund did just as bad as Tesla did in 2022 and she has been buying Tesla all the way down.
Anyway, just this mornings thoughts, I am not proclaiming to be an expert in anyway, nor in any subject but anything I look at I like to see facts and figures that match up and right now, nothing matches up with Tesla except speculation and with the legacy car makers coming out with the same product as Tesla, Tesla is losing USA market share by the boatloads and the legacy makers are only just getting started. I have been saying this all last year best I can remember.
This also at at time just in the last week or so that the "experts" have now slashed their predictions on public adoption of EV's by 50% in the year 2030

SO you dont agree with the $18 a share but your good with $108 and nothing in-between like 50?
BTW I have no clue short term which way Tesla is going to go, for fun and possibly even lose money I was thinking about jumping in and out because there are still I THINK many faithful followers of Tesla so would not be surprised to see a bounce, at the same time, I wonder when it will be closer to $50 a share, maybe next year? or next week? Me/ Im clueless ... but I love thinking about things *LOL*
or should I just place it safe and go with GM and hope for another 20% bounce and get out.
 
doublebase said:
I kind of feel the same way, although who knows with tesla and this economy? But I think when people start targeting a bottom, it may already be here, and you missed. Then again, like I said, I probably was thinking the same thing when Tesla was $150 a share...and I think I said at the time...now might not be a bad time to dollar cost average in. And look what happened! It dropped nearly 30% since. So, do I dollar cost average now? When people are saying this is a $18 dollar automaker stock and nothing more?? Because I don’t think that’s ^^^ really the case either, right? Maybe I should start buying at around $108?

I have friends that do this stuff for a living (manage funds/portfolios). It’s their business, it’s all they do. It’s their job. And they feel very strongly about Tesla - told me they are increasing their position on Tesla (back a few weeks ago when it was $150), with a warning that yes, it is a volatile stock, and yes, they have sold the stock before, BUT with strong belief that this company is much more than just an automaker. And now I really don’t know what to think, but I keep thinking I should buy.
Click to expand...


The way to compare is to compute your average price you bought TSLA at. When you DCA you buy at various prices.
 
alarmguy said:
To be analytical I would ask those friends how they felt about Tesla when it was $400 a share, then, $350, then $300, Then $250, Then $200 ect.
Not in anyway to discount anything your friends say but it sounds like they are speculating because the hard numbers and facts do not reflect what they are saying at this point.
A "strong belief" can be very dangerous or very rewarding but it's not based on fact and why it can be very dangerous or very rewarding.
I use this example a lot, look up Cathie Woods and her ARK her fund did just as bad as Tesla did in 2022 and she has been buying Tesla all the way down.
Anyway, just this mornings thoughts, I am not proclaiming to be an expert in anyway, nor in any subject but anything I look at I like to see facts and figures that match up and right now, nothing matches up with Tesla except speculation and with the legacy car makers coming out with the same product as Tesla, Tesla is losing USA market share by the boatloads and the legacy makers are only just getting started. I have been saying this all last year best I can remember.
This also at at time just in the last week or so that the "experts" have now slashed their predictions on public adoption of EV's by 50% in the year 2030

SO you dont agree with the $18 a share but your good with $108 and nothing in-between like 50?
BTW I have no clue short term which way Tesla is going to go, for fun and possibly even lose money I was thinking about jumping in and out because there are still I THINK many faithful followers of Tesla so would not be surprised to see a bounce, at the same time, I wonder when it will be closer to $50 a share, maybe next year? or next week? Me/ Im clueless ... but I love thinking about things *LOL*
or should I just place it safe and go with GM and hope for another 20% bounce and get out.
Click to expand...
This is exactly what I said to him, that they now will have competition (something they really didn't have) and there will be much different price points, customer service, repair, accessibility to dealers, etc. And they seem to think that what we are witnessing is an extinction event, with developing technologies (Tesla being at the forefront) capable of wiping out automotive ICE manufacturing giants. That these companies are light years behind, won't be able to maneuver fast enough, don't contain the infrastructure, battery technology and assembly plants that can change in a matter of minutes to accommodate product. They call it a long term buy. An investment in a company that is strong, innovative, and way ahead of the game. A game they see is a forgone conclusion. And I've doubted it, argued against it...but yet then again I do see their point a bit.

Price? I have no idea. I think more important is forecast in the segment. Has that changed? EV vehicles are coming, right? Incentives are coming. Infrastructure, advancements in technology...but will Tesla really be in the driver's seat? I have no idea. But I find it very interesting because this is something that I may miss out on. And I hate that. Then again, I thought $150 was "good". Now I have no idea.
 
alarmguy,

Are Tesla’s best days behind them and will never see a stock price of $400 ever again ?
Tesla got a jump start on EV industry and did very well, now other manufacturers are doing everything to build EV.

Look at the 25 year chart of Cisco (CSCO) and even 20+ years after the dot com bubble….. Cisco has still never hit its all time high from 2000.

Tesla is a very good company that benefited from the crazy amount of cash being pumped into the economy, near 0% interest rates and lots of accounts buying Tesla. I admit my accounts greatly benefited by having Tesla, Apple and Amazon being pumped up from every angle, luckily I got out in 2021 when I felt it was another 2000 on the horizon.

Trying to time the market ?
No, just using common sense. Only a fool would think the big tech would keep going up and up….
 
Dave Hess said:
alarmguy,

Are Tesla’s best days behind them and will never see a stock price of $400 ever again ?
Tesla got a jump start on EV industry and did very well, now other manufacturers are doing everything to build EV.
Click to expand...
Well, I’m not invested so it’s easy for me to say, but no Tesla will never see 400 again.
I do expect to see stock price bumps up and down throughout the year.
But there is absolutely positively no doubt in my mind. The fierce competition is coming, and Tesla is not in a position to handle it.

When I say fierce competition, the competition is already there after all, they are all just cars, but as we now know the existing competition will be offering the same battery powered electric engines as Tesla does for those who want them and at much better prices.

Tesla is a car manufacturer and its ultimate price earnings ratio will be the same as the other car manufacturers and sometimes I even doubt that as Americans will be able to go to every corner of the nation and actually look at vehicles from legacy car manufacturers in showrooms.

Tesla may have captured the Internet vehicle orders for now, but all I can say is my wife and I love to shop and we love to look and if I’m buying a new vehicle that I’m going to love I’m going to drive to a showroom and actually see one in a showroom and one I know I could bring it back to for any issues.

I think sometimes success which we have many successful people in this forum forget about the general population, and what’s on their mind much like a politician, they’re living in a different world, and I don’t mean that in a negative way.
But they’re not in touch and I’m telling you right now $60,000 compact cars no matter how fast they go 0 to 60 mph or do an 1/4 mile are not going to be the mainstream in America. Americans are gonna buy beautiful lovely cars whether they are gas powered or battery packs, price will be a major factor if one could get a nice comfortable super smooth riding SUV or a compact electric car try to imagine what they will choose. If it’s not a second car.

To me when Cisco hit a high in 2000 (using your facts) other companies had to get on board and start manufacturing a product, in this case with Tesla, the product has been out there for the last hundred years and currently manufactured by dozens of manufacturers all over the world, the only difference is those manufacturers will be putting an electric engine in a certain percentage of them for those that prefer battery power.

Oh, and guess what, as they revise the numbers down with Americans excepting electric vehicles by the year 2030 the legacy manufactures will still have a product. Sometimes I think there’s going to be so many electric vehicles on the market place that they will be an over supply like years ago with LC/LED panels.

I don’t buy this whole electric vehicle thing in its current form of driving around with a battery pack as a chassis, this is just a steppingstone to something better if there is to be mass adoption of over 50%

Lithium batteries and charging them is a major inconvenience to a significant portion of the population, it’s actually crazy, I am interested in what seems like a disaster of a company right now called plug power of which, if I’m correct even Amazon is investing in, h2

No, I’m not buying the stock but it’s fun to watch. They’re losing money like crazy but they’re big into the whole H2 thing and have actual products. Fuel cells

With all the above said, I can’t help but think there are much more safer investments🧐
Let me know when you find a really good one!

Something tells me you expect of a long reply like this LOL
Sometimes I think too much!
But it’s fun
 
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