*Investors Blog*

[ecotourist]

The folks here that think they can predict the future crack me up .

There have been 3 times that the stock market has moved "sideways", (not gone up). Once for a period of 25 yrs and twice for a period of 10 yrs.
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I suspect these sideways markets don't factor in the dividends. The famous 1929 - 1954 apparently doesn't.

You may think dividends aren't important (and dividends in the US have been very low in recent years). But dividends have been much higher in the past.

Many of my (Canadian) investments are paying dividends in the 4 - 5% range. And that's enough to count.

 

[PimTac]

The folks here that think they can predict the future crack me up .

There have been 3 times that the stock market has moved "sideways", (not gone up). Once for a period of 25 yrs and twice for a period of 10 yrs.
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It’s even worse than that. The period between 1966 and 1982 was a secular bear market.

 

[PimTac]

I'm not sure what his point is either . Did you notice the dates ? 1906 , 1929 , 1973 it's a whole different ballgame these days .

That saying usually precludes a bear market. I heard it said in 1999 and before 2008.

 

[ecotourist]

2022 was a disappointing year. Our investments were down as was our Net Worth. But being realistic we were just giving back some of the recent excess gains (from 2021 in particular).

Over the 2 year period (Dec 31, 2020 - Dec 31, 2022) our investments are up nicely as is our Net Worth.

We calculate our family's Net Worth every January 1. We take into account our investments, estimated house value, estimated vehicle values (using the same approach every year), and all liabilities. I use my best estimate of the potential sale value of all assets, erring on the conservative side if anything.

A plot of Net Worth over time gives a very good picture of how your family is doing financially.

 

[ecotourist]

2022 was a disappointing year. Our investments were down as was our Net Worth. But being realistic we were just giving back some of the recent excess gains (from 2021 in particular).

Over the 2 year period (Dec 31, 2020 - Dec 31, 2022) our investments are up nicely as is our Net Worth.

We calculate our family's Net Worth every January 1. We take into account our investments, estimated house value, estimated vehicle values (using the same approach every year), and all liabilities. I use my best estimate of the potential sale value of all assets, erring on the conservative side if anything.

A plot of Net Worth over time gives a very good picture of how your family is doing financially.

I should add that (as I've been retired for a number of years) there was no income from employment over that 2 year period. I think an increase in Net Worth over any period is "good going" for a retired guy.

 

[incognito_2u]

Just checked my portfolio numbers……for 2022, ended up +1.69% overall in a VERY toxic environment. Something’s better than nothing.
Here’s hoping 2023 is better for everyone all around!

 

[Dave Hess]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2022-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html


Tesla should pop on Tuesday.

I would like to see Tesla drop 30-40% more (from 52 week low) during the 2023 recession.

 

[alarmguy]

So Tesla missed 4th quarter delivery estimates, but unsure how the stock will react being the vast majority are retail investors?

Also the stock has been beat up all year, Tuesday and the coming month, will be interesting either up, down or sideways.
Personally from here on into the future I think the stock will always be pressured but that’s just me.
I’m unsure if that means they won’t be some good short term plays but I find it scary

 

[PimTac]

So Tesla missed 4th quarter delivery estimates, but unsure how the stock will react being the vast majority are retail investors?

Also the stock has been beat up all year, Tuesday and the coming month, will be interesting either up, down or sideways.
Personally from here on into the future I think the stock will always be pressured but that’s just me.
I’m unsure if that means they won’t be some good short term plays but I find it scary

The delivery numbers were not that far off from the analyst estimates what I have read.

The stock is not scary if you hold a prudent position of 5% of your portfolio or less in it. Those that have overextended themselves on TSLA are feeling the pain.

 

[SC Maintenance]

The delivery numbers were not that far off from the analyst estimates what I have read.

The stock is not scary if you hold a prudent position of 5% of your portfolio or less in it. Those that have overextended themselves on TSLA are feeling the pain.

If I was going to own an automotive I think I would buy Tesla - there the only one without a mountain of debt. However there still tied to the tech industry / nasdaq overall - so where the nasdaq goes so to does Tesla still I think.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The delivery numbers were not that far off from the analyst estimates what I have read.

The stock is not scary if you hold a prudent position of 5% of your portfolio or less in it. Those that have overextended themselves on TSLA are feeling the pain.

The numbers were about 15K short, I believe. A few pessimistic analysts about 400K; the optimists were thinking more than 430K. 420-ish sounded doable; Tesla missed. I know they have been trying to smooth deliveries over the course of a fiscal quarter, to aid in cost to manufacture and delivery bottlenecks.

The pain on when they bought, right?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I guessed Tesla would deliver 420K + vehicles. Probably 50% increase YoY over Q4 2021.
Market expectations on Tesla are enormous; explosive growth is considered disappointing. We'll see what the new year brings.

 

[alarmguy]

The delivery numbers were not that far off from the analyst estimates what I have read.

Ahhh, yes, I don’t disagree with you and why I think it will be an interesting week.

Reading Barrons I think it was, the stock is (at its multiple) “priced for perfection” compared to its peers which are at lower multiples, so Barrons added to my prejudiced view simply because Tesla said to expect a 50% increase from last year and didn’t quite cut it.

As we know the market looks forward and the last two months we have been seeing Tesla incentives to get rid of inventory. So are we on a downward path?

I don’t know because we now have the taxpayer funded subsidies kicking in but that is just the USA.

Sooooo for me, I find this really interesting. Is this already taken into account in the stock price or is the stock price where it is (instead of lower) because investors were looking for a ray of hope that the numbers would have come in higher than the estimates and also come in as Tesla announced as an expectation.

I think we can all agree when companies fall short or even meet expectations sometimes the stock will sell off because investors were looking for a solid “beat”
This is a wild card no matter what company but Tesla is certainly in the spotlight being the biggest flop for 2022.

 

[PimTac]

The numbers were about 15K short, I believe. A few pessimistic analysts about 400K; the optimists were thinking more than 430K. 420-ish sounded doable; Tesla missed. I know they have been trying to smooth deliveries over the course of a fiscal quarter, to aid in cost to manufacture and delivery bottlenecks.

The pain on when they bought, right?

I always take the analyst estimates with plenty of salt .

 

[PimTac]

This is a wild card no matter what company but Tesla is certainly in the spotlight as the biggest flop for 2022.

It is but look at the main reason for this downturn. It was Elons purchase of Twitter and his actions and statements. It’s a disconnect.

When investors buy or sell based on emotions the results are usually unforgiving. That said, TSLA was overpriced and this has let the air out of the balloon. This could be healthy in the long term.

 

[alarmguy]

It is but look at the main reason for this downturn. It was Elons purchase of Twitter and his actions and statements. It’s a disconnect.

When investors buy or sell based on emotions the results are usually unforgiving. That said, TSLA was overpriced and this has let the air out of the balloon. This could be healthy in the long term.

I agree! Good choice of words with much less words than mine LOL
That’s my question if all the air is out or not, I guess we will know in a year. But I’ll be interested short term this week.
One thing for sure if people thought it was a good company at 100 times earnings they should be all in at less than 40

I understand how the Twitter thing is an affect but I’m not all onboard as that’s the reason they have to cut prices to move vehicles. I find that more as a convenient excuse and if it’s fact that means he is a poor CEO.
With all that said, it was just a high flying stock that finally came down closer to reality. I just don’t think it’s there yet.
Time will tell and fun to watch.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Analysts have pretty lofty expectations for Tesla. There is a reason for it; they are usually right.
Gee, ya didn't have quite 50% YOY growth? What's wrong with you?

 

[Warstud]

How do you get the price of food to come down ? Reduce the demand . It's food though .

 

[SC Maintenance]

How do you get the price of food to come down ? Reduce the demand . It's food though .

Much of the food inflation, and inflation in general - is on the supply side. Look for example at automobile costs. Part of it is all the money sloshing around, but were also experiencing millions of fewer new vehicles being sold. The number of drivers is not decreasing, so there is a supply shortage. Increasing interest rates will decrease demand, but it won't increase supply - in fact it might make it worse since it will make financing new factories and other capex equipment more expensive.

Lots of analysts think inflation is here to stay for a while?

 

[alarmguy]

Analysts have pretty lofty expectations for Tesla. There is a reason for it; they are usually right.
Gee, ya didn't have quite 50% YOY growth? What's wrong with you?

No, analysts are no different than weather forecasters.
Whether a stock goes up or down a certain percentage will always be right.
So if the stock gets trashed over the next year this analyst will look like a hero.
My track record on Tesla was more accurate in 2022 than many of the best (just using as an example) but it just means I was on the right side of the coin this once.
https://stocks.apple.com/Aw_hdQE4HSl6b1sQmVADp4A

“After Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk predicted an “epic” end to the year, Tesla proceeded to cut vehicle prices and production in China, then offered $7,500 discounts in the US. Concerns about rising interest rates, inflation and other economic headwinds”