*Investors Blog*

Actually that's Economics speak. In times of high employment, inflation is a natural result. A "little" inflation is considered a good thing because it means the economy is strong.
Of course the current inflation level is hurting many, but it certainly isn't hurting spending. Consumption continues to be strong and corporate profits are through the roof. These are both drivers of inflation.
Slowing the rate of inflation while maintaining high employment is a rare occurrence.


I understand about background inflation.

If you ask for a 10% increase in next years budget and it gets approved for a 5% increase would you call that a cut? Most people wouldn’t but yet here we are.
 
I understand about background inflation.

If you ask for a 10% increase in next years budget and it gets approved for a 5% increase would you call that a cut? Most people wouldn’t but yet here we are.
Apples to oranges. Inflation is rising costs of goods and services over a period of time generally expressed as a rate, budgets are allocation of scarce resources in Economic speak.

I would never intend to question your knowledge.
But your example not a cut or increase in any terms. Future is forecast, not an actual.
I would call it a downward trend, or slowdown.
 
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Maybe that is a reason he lives and is based in the Bahamas.
Him and two of his deputies threw $69 million as political donations into the recent election. I don't think any account holders are going to get that money back.
Not sure if the law will bother to go after him, but I suspect at least some of the now broke account holders are connected. Hope Mr. Bankman-Fried has food tasters and a team of ex-SEALs guarding him.
 
I bought some TQQQ on Monday with anticipation it would pop on Wednesday after the election results and it didn’t pop.

Today it was up nicely and I sold everything on news of the ‘good inflation‘ report. :unsure:
 
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Anytime some pro athletes, Hollywood celebrities, actors, rappers, very sketchy people promoting something this silly….. you know it’s a pump & dump scheme.

Over 20,000 coins and lots of folks hyping this toxic trash 24/7.
 
Nice

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Twitter will never implode, he’s just getting his employees ready for what to come.
His company, his rules. End of Story.

“You do as I say…. or out the door you go !!! “
 
I hope you all faired well today... This year has been rough for us "hold 'em long term" guys, but today was simply stellar.
Really? As a "hold 'em long term" person the past year has registered as about a 0.5 on a scale of 1-10 of things I even think about on a weekly basis. It's the short-term people and the people that may need liquidity now/soon who should be worried. On the same token, yesterday's gains register as a big nothing burger because who cares? It's just one day, one little blip up on a curve that in 6 months you won't even know that blip was there and it's meaningless.

If you look at exponential regression models of the S&P 500 for the past 70 years we are still 25% above where we "should've been". If you look at the gains of the S&P 500 over the past 10 years (with my admittedly less accurate linear regression line) we're right where we should've had been had the weirdness of 2020 not happened. Based on exponential regression it can be argued there still hasn't been enough of a correction. These chickens were always going to and had to come home to roost.

For the long term people, they should be happy this happened now because it will result in a much healthier market moving forward with plenty of years of gains ahead.


S&P.jpg


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“For the long term people, they should be happy this happened now because it will result in a much healthier market moving forward with plenty of years of gains ahead.”


Unless you are at or near retirement age. Hopefully those people have adjusted their portfolios to cushion times like this. I am one of those people.
 
“For the long term people, they should be happy this happened now because it will result in a much healthier market moving forward with plenty of years of gains ahead.”


Unless you are at or near retirement age. Hopefully those people have adjusted their portfolios to cushion times like this. I am one of those people.
Those aren't "long-term people"...
 
Those aren't "long-term people"...


I am a long term investor. I started in my late 20’s and just before 50 started to migrate a little to fixed income. Right now I’m roughly 64/36 stocks to FI and others. I’ll likely stay that way until the grim reaper comes. Some people might be nervous about that ratio and that’s fine. Adjust your portfolio to your risk tolerance.

Investing is more than just stocks.
 
Really? As a "hold 'em long term" person the past year has registered as about a 0.5 on a scale of 1-10 of things I even think about on a weekly basis. It's the short-term people and the people that may need liquidity now/soon who should be worried. On the same token, yesterday's gains register as a big nothing burger because who cares? It's just one day, one little blip up on a curve that in 6 months you won't even know that blip was there and it's meaningless.

If you look at exponential regression models of the S&P 500 for the past 70 years we are still 25% above where we "should've been". If you look at the gains of the S&P 500 over the past 10 years (with my admittedly less accurate linear regression line) we're right where we should've had been had the weirdness of 2020 not happened. Based on exponential regression it can be argued there still hasn't been enough of a correction. These chickens were always going to and had to come home to roost.

For the long term people, they should be happy this happened now because it will result in a much healthier market moving forward with plenty of years of gains ahead.


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I am not sure if you are asking me a question... By the way, I love the regression curve. I coded a linear regression function in SQL Server to operate on millions of rows of sales data over a relevant range. Used it as a statistical forecast. It was a great challenge and proved to be remarkably accurate going forward. The best part was explaining why it was accurate, but that's another topic.

My point is, YTD has been rough on the market, but YTD is short term thinking. I don't invest that way. Living and working in SIlicon Valley, I am overweight in tech. Not a bad place to be if you start back in the 1980's.

The market seems to like the "better" inflation news. Today should follow the trend.
 
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