*Investors Blog*

[alarmguy]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/30/fac...pe-death-spiral-as-users-flee-sales-drop.html

Are people getting tired of all the drama on Facebook ?

It’s definitely mellowed out. The thrill gone, it is a venue for “groups” whether community HOA sites or things like your local gym.
I do think sometimes that might sustain them but …
I don’t know where they go from here, maybe their meta verse ideas will pan out, as a person who loves technology I just can’t see the vision.
Remember that company called “ My Space”?

Maybe if I could see the vision and believe I would buy in at this point but … what do I know?

 

[SC Maintenance]

I have two children in college. They haven't used Facebook in years - moved to other platforms. Those will fade too in the future - myspace anyone?

What made Meta so valuable to investors is it was supposed to be broad access to that particular segment coveted by everyone - 18 to 35. They won't be able to monetize much from old farts like me looking at a HOA page or other group for 3 minutes a day.

I actually recently finally signed up for faceplant - purely to access there marketplace and thats it.

 

[GON]

Higher taxes will fix that...the 50's had the highest marginal taxes and every old person I ever met couldnt stop waxing poetic how wonderful life was back then not to mention the economic boom higher taxes produced

I wonder what the adult employment participation rate in The USA was in the 1950s, and what the adult employment participation rate in the USA is today. When everyone is actively working and contributing to a nation- wonderful outcomes are possible.

I suspect tax rates are not the center of gravity difference between the 1950s and today. One of many differences between the 1950s and today was the USA was the world's producer of products and services. The rest of the world was recovering from a massive war in the 1950s. Those recovering countries in the 1950s, have recovered and some are now major producers.

 

[PimTac]

I wonder what the adult employment participation rate in The USA was in the 1950s, and what the adult employment participation rate in the USA is today. When everyone is actively working and contributing to a nation- wonderful outcomes are possible.

I suspect tax rates are not the center of gravity difference between the 1950s and today. One of many differences between the 1950s and today was the USA was the world's producer of products and services. The rest of the world was recovering from a massive war in the 1950s. Those recovering countries in the 1950s, have recovered and some are now major producers.

This has the information. You will have to change the chart to MAX.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate


From stories I have heard, jobs were plentiful in the 50’s. It depended on the region of course. Things picked up when Ike got the Interstate Highway System thru Congress.

Tax rates were high until Kennedy. Then it started to go downhill with LBJ and Vietnam.

Not political, it’s factual and part of economics history in case a mod is reading.

 

[GON]

This has the information. You will have to change the chart to MAX.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate


From stories I have heard, jobs were plentiful in the 50’s. It depended on the region of course. Things picked up when Ike got the Interstate Highway System thru Congress.

Tax rates were high until Kennedy. Then it started to go downhill with LBJ and Vietnam.

Not political, it’s factual and part of economics history in case a mod is reading.

PT,

Thanks for posting the link- the results were not what I was expecting.

My guess why the results are not what I suspect- in the 1950s probably a lot of stay-at-home adult woman. I'd love to see that same chart, but only including adult males.

 

[PimTac]

PT,

Thanks for posting the link- the results were not what I was expecting.

My guess why the results are not what I suspect- in the 1950s probably a lot of stay-at-home adult woman. I'd love to see that same chart, but only including adult males.

I wondered about that as well. I also wondered if this counted agricultural jobs too? There is such a thing as full employment but even then the UE rate is 3-4%.

 

[SC Maintenance]

PT,

Thanks for posting the link- the results were not what I was expecting.

My guess why the results are not what I suspect- in the 1950s probably a lot of stay-at-home adult woman. I'd love to see that same chart, but only including adult males.

Exactly - its an old economic tracking problem - most married women stayed home - they raised children, cooked meals, ironed the laundry and did all the other household items needed doing - but it wasn't counted in GDP. Now people eat out a lot, they hire daycare to raise their children, and drop their laundry at the cleaners - so all those activities are now counted in GDP but it wasn't in 1950. Not saying one way is better than another - just from a tracking standpoint it wasn't possible to put a GDP dollar value on a stay at home mother in 1950.

 

[Koainn]

PT,

Thanks for posting the link- the results were not what I was expecting.

My guess why the results are not what I suspect- in the 1950s probably a lot of stay-at-home adult woman. I'd love to see that same chart, but only including adult males.

There must not have been secretaries,nurses, teachers or stewardesses back then

 

[SC Maintenance]

There must not have been secretaries,nurses, teachers or stewardesses back then

Since this is from the bureau of lies and statistics I presume its public domain. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/05/art2full.pdf

Copied here so you don't have to click the link. These are what is known as standard demographic charts - its the population of a country, each bar is 5 year increments, men on the left, women on the right. Dark bars are total population. Light bars are those in the labor force. Check the differences between 1950 and 2000

 

[PimTac]

There must not have been secretaries,nurses, teachers or stewardesses back then

There were, A lot of women dropped out of the labor force when they had children.

A bit of history, those old enough might remember the long lists of help wanted ads in the newspaper classifieds for Keypunch Operators.

 

[SC Maintenance]

There were, A lot of women dropped out of the labor force when they had children.

A bit of history, those old enough might remember the long lists of help wanted ads in the newspaper classifieds for Keypunch Operators.

Keypunch was way before my time, but when I first became a manager and was assigned a secretary for our department, She was more than twice my age and took meeting minutes in shorthand.

 

[Koainn]

Since this is from the bureau of lies and statistics I presume its public domain. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/05/art2full.pdf

Copied here so you don't have to click the link. These are what is known as standard demographic charts - its the population of a country, each bar is 5 year increments, men on the left, women on the right. Dark bars are total population. Light bars are those in the labor force. Check the differences between 1950 and 2000

View attachment 119135

Rosie the riveter got fired to make room for the retuning Gi's.

 

[PimTac]

Rosie the riveter got fired to make room for the retuning Gi's.

Those that came back. I believe over 400,000 didn’t.

Then there was Korea.

 

[Dave Hess]

Really a disappointment end of quarter isn't increasing market prices for better short opportunities. Keeping ES flat might just mean a longer than just a short-term bottom and deadcat bounce. Need to start looking at yearly charts since getting close to Christmas and possibly a 3 months rally

When do you think the Fed will pause rate hikes and take a ‘wait and see’ approach ?

 

[SC Maintenance]

When do you think the Fed will pause rate hikes and take a ‘wait and see’ approach ?

Well given that most predictions are usually wrong, here are some things a bunch of financial blogs and sites say about what to watch for.

Again, this is what "they" say - which I am not smart enough to agree or disagree

-- The fed doesn't want to start / stop - gives the appearance of them being clueless and doesn't instill confidence - so they will continue until they get to where they want to which many think is around 4 to 5 %. The might slow, but not pause.
-- For the last decade the fed has had a dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Labor shortages persist, so they don't have to worry about that. A lot of people are saying to look at the Alan Greenspan fed if you want a clue on how the current fed will think.
-- The fed is like a general - always fighting the last war. Jacking interest rates may not work this time since a lot of this is supply side / labor shortage / government created - hence they will over shoot for sure.
-- You hear a lot about CPI and core CPI - but I have read in a number of places that speculate the fed is looking at either median or trimmed CPI as calculated by the Cleveland fed - which minimizes the far outlying anomalies. Those both continue to rise.

They likely change their mind multiple times a day themselves.

 

[Koainn]

When do you think the Fed will pause rate hikes and take a ‘wait and see’ approach ?

I don't do fundamentals Dave. If I want to know what the fed has in mind I look at this:.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.quotes.html

There's an expedited meeting Monday I guess so u may get your answer tomorrow

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20221003closed.htm

 

[Dave Hess]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lloff-in-five-charts-36-trillion-and-counting

 

[PimTac]

This last minute Fed meeting is quite unusual. This article might shed some light.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/01/the...t-on-edge-as-risks-rise-around-the-world.html

 

[Koainn]

This last minute Fed meeting is quite unusual. This article might shed some light.


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/01/the...t-on-edge-as-risks-rise-around-the-world.html

The fed had nothing to do with last week's implosion of England's currency,it was the surprising tax cut by the new prime minister. Things are bad when even the rich beneficiaries of tax cuts turn their backs on them cause it's become so obscene that the bank of England had to intervene

 

[PimTac]

The fed had nothing to do with last week's implosion of England's currency,it was the surprising tax cut by the new prime minister. Things are bad when even the rich beneficiaries of tax cuts turn their backs on them cause it's become so obscene that the bank of England had to intervene

Which, if I understand correctly is a proposal and hasn’t been implemented yet.