*Investors Blog*

There is market turbulence, for sure. When many things are grotesquely out of order, like they have been for years, it will take some time and a bit of pain to get our nation back on track. Imagine an alcoholic, chain smoking, obese patient visiting the doc. Doc insists many changes have to be made. So patient goes on a strict diet, and stops the bad addictive habits in order to live.

Patient is not happy and feels rotten, but the medicine will pay off. Its a necessity we will have to digest to get the nation back on track. China and others are NOT our friend. We have to wean ourselves off their economic poison. I am thankful things are changing. Better days are ahead.
 
gfh77665 said:
There is market turbulence, for sure. When many things are grotesquely out of order, like they have been for years, it will take some time and a bit of pain to get our nation back on track. Imagine an alcoholic, chain smoking, obese patient visiting the doc. Doc insists many changes have to be made. So patient goes on a strict diet, and stops the bad addictive habits in order to live.

Patient is not happy and feels rotten, but the medicine will pay off. Its a necessity we will have to digest to get the nation back on track. China and others are NOT our friend. We have to wean ourselves off their economic poison. I am thankful things are changing. Better days are ahead.
Click to expand...
Imagine hitting yourself in the head with a hammer and saying it hurts.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Imagine hitting yourself in the head with a hammer and saying it hurts.
Click to expand...
Then trying to do brain surgery on yourself when you're in a partial coma. Market down 678 right now. If all this chaos continues it will have long term impacts that will be hard to rectify very well or fast. It can all be thrown into chaos easily, but rectifying chaos is another story.
 
Pablo said:
Terrible analogies

Imagine becoming a heroin addict, but starting slowly without even having a high. Then the dose is slowly increased............until full blown Jones. And there is NO heroin left at all.
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You are calling the biggest economy in the world, by far, a junkie? The other gur called us an alcoholic...
And global tariffs is an answer? We will be lucky if we can avoid worldwide recession.
 
JeffKeryk said:
You are calling the biggest economy in the world, by far, a junkie? The other gur called us an alcoholic...
And global tariffs is an answer? We will be lucky if we can avoid worldwide recession.
Click to expand...
If one country puts on tariff and there is a worldwide recession, I guess that tells us something.

S&P still up 4% over 12 months. So the sun still comes up I guess?
 
SC Maintenance said:
If one country puts on tariff and there is a worldwide recession, I guess that tells us something.

S&P still up 4% over 12 months. So the sun still comes up I guess?
Click to expand...
Cherry picking numbers. How about YTD, which is more representative of hitting ourselves on the head with a sledgehammer, right?
 
JeffKeryk said:
Cherry picking numbers. How about YTD, which is more representative of hitting ourselves on the head with a sledgehammer, right?
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I am up YTD so sure, is fine? Current markets completely predictable - high volatility was baked in.

How is 12 months cherry picking and YTD not I guess is my question?

If globalism benefitted you, you want to go back to the old system. If globalism hurt you, your fine with current trajectory. People talk there book, same as always. Based on this conclusion I no longer care either way. Every man for himself is fine with me.
 
JeffKeryk said:
Cherry picking numbers. How about YTD, which is more representative of hitting ourselves on the head with a sledgehammer, right?
Click to expand...
You are acting like Henny Penny. Calm down. If you are so worried go all into MM's!!

Yes this did need to happen. You don't like it, which makes no sense - since you love taxes so much. Pay the tax, pay the toll, pay the tariff.

I'm doing just fine. Because long ago I knew tech was way overbought. I'm probably too much cash, but oh well.
 
Pablo said:
You are acting like Henny Penny. Calm down. If you are so worried go all into MM's!!

Yes this did need to happen. You don't like it, which makes no sense - since you love taxes so much. Pay the tax, pay the toll, pay the tariff.

I'm doing just fine. Because long ago I knew tech was way overbought. I'm probably too much cash, but oh well.
Click to expand...
I like cash here also.

But I am not the whale you are. My cash pile is small :(
 
Pablo said:
You are acting like Henny Penny. Calm down. If you are so worried go all into MM's!!

Yes this did need to happen. You don't like it, which makes no sense - since you love taxes so much. Pay the tax, pay the toll, pay the tariff.

I'm doing just fine. Because long ago I knew tech was way overbought. I'm probably too much cash, but oh well.
Click to expand...
Do you understand why I like paying a lot of taxes? Let's just say paying $120K to the IRS means I had a pretty good year; it's a great problem to have.

Tech is overbought? That's your opinion. Mine is, it's been hammered for no good reason. And that's the numbers.
Targeted tariffs, surgical tariffs, make perfect sense and are an important tool. Worldwide tariffs (except 2 notable countries) is wack.
 
alarmguy said:
Well, yeah, it does. My wife tracks and facilitates orders around the world. A LOT of product comes from China. In ways and areas many havent thought about.

I dont expect many people to have thought about this, however, this one order today (out of many) that has shipped from China, 6000 items ordered months ago customized and sold to a customer by a sales rep here in the USA. How does that sales person explain the price will be 245% higher for those 6000 items when it arrives?
If this customer was lucky possibly it was already re-quoted at the 145% increase, now before they are to get it, will be told another 100% had to be added on. If the customer declines they are stuck with 6000 customized items, however chances are they will be sold to the customer (MAYBE) and the USA company will take a big hit or the customer will rightfully "bail out" on the transaction.

We are in uncharted territory. Many Americans have no clue how every aspect of their lives would change if this isnt resolved. However I know it will be. There is no other option. Good news is, for sure, over the next decade companies will look at China as an unreliable source and a steady move away form relying on them will occur. It was only a matter of time that our trade with our enemy wouldnt last forever. That horse is already out of the barn. Even the big names like Apple are now offshoring from China but a long way to go.

This is just one tiny example.
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One major industrial supplier of high margin electrical components has already done this. They have claimed force majeure and said all orders now are + tariff. Will be interesting to see how that affects their overall sales, but almost nothing industrial controls is made in USA, nor has it been in a long time, so in reality it will be the same with their competitor unless someone wants to eat the cost?

In the industrial world, things like copper wire and conduit are priced with a contract multiple of the price of copper. For example your spool of wire might be price + 0.5X the price change in copper from time ordered to time delivered or something to that affect.

Same thing happens when priced in other currencies - price is in euro x dollar exchange rate at time of delivery.

A friend of mine sells servo motors from one of the major suppliers, and in the pandemic motor delivery went from 8 weeks to 40 weeks. When the 40 weeks were almost up, they came out and said all orders were +25%, but they could cancel without penalty if they didn't want to pay. My friend thought he would have no customers left, but in the end no one cancelled. Not one.

If macro things change the game, commercial buyers understand this behavior. There doing the same thing on the other side of the transaction to their customers.

Retail sellers will use it as an excuse to make margin on the tariff if they can.
 
I did two Tesla flips today.
A wild boring ride. I bought at 3:35 AM at a then good deal but later I bought it far cheaper and flipped it at 7PM.. it's money but very tiring.
Hard work is easier... 😁
 
There's a difference between trying to change something at warp speed and with chaos, vs. planned out and mythological and keeping the impact low as possible. What's being tried to be undone literally took decades to get here, and trying to change it at warp speed is going to cause lots of chaos and long term ramification. When a lot of small businesses go under, and supply of goods decreases and become more expensive when made here, not many people are going to be jumping up and down cheering ... more like cutting back spending and that will further push the economy down. Check back in 6 months and a year from now if this "plan" stays on track, because only time will tell but it certainly doesn't look like this "patent" is getting the right "medicine". The patient can be killed or severely damaged from the medicine too if the doctors don't know what they are doing. What's happening now is just the "injection" ... takes some time to see the impact of some experimental "cure all medicine".
 
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