*Investors Blog*

[SC Maintenance]

That's the very definition of price manipulation.
The reason big oil can do this is, there is not a viable substitute.

Have you checked the big oil profitability lately? Oh yeah, and subsidies, both and indirect?

There are hundreds if not thousands of oil producers on earth, most independent. Oil is priced at the margin, so the last price per barrel is the new price for every barrel.

The oil market is probably the closest thing we have to a free market left on earth. Its literally the only true global market.

By your definition then all real estate transactions are price manipulation, since every house on the block resets based on whatever the last house that sold was, and builders make more or less houses depending on average price + demand.

 

[JeffKeryk]

There are hundreds if not thousands of oil producers on earth, most independent. Oil is priced at the margin, so the last price per barrel is the new price for every barrel.

The oil market is probably the closest thing we have to a free market left on earth. Its literally the only true global market.

By your definition then all real estate transactions are price manipulation, since every house on the block resets based on whatever the last house that sold was, and builders make more or less houses depending on average price + demand.

No, I 100% disagree. Without viable alternatives, that's hardly a free market. Manipulation abounds.

 

[4WD]

When most Americans (including myself) only buy high MPG vehicles - that’s the point where we might actually be reacting to a problem … (not just complaining) …
Oil & gas is pretty much middle of the road with ROCE - well, for one thing - the C is huge - and as some pointed out went through a rough crash not long ago … Many don’t survive in that sector - and those that do carry great exposure to policy change …

 

[Zee09]

Robinhood must be desperate
They were pounding members daily for $260k, no not $250k? Weird

Now they are soliciting the rift raft

Pm

 

[alarmguy]

Why do some expect gasoline to be cheaper (inflation adjusted) from anything else?
I suspect gasoline is one of the lowest inflation costs over the last 30 years.
How can it be cheaper? What people confuse are the taxes placed at the local, state, federal level AND on the refineries.
Tell me, how much cheaper do you want?
This is too cheap honestly and rock bottom. easily could be a reasonable $1 more a gallon and still be within reason.
I think those who complain need to look at their local state dynamics of taxes and fees placed on the industry in their area.

Today's prices near me, I live near the SC/NC border and am in SC all the time. NC prices are a few cents more up to around 10 cents a gallon or so but I dont make a special trip to SC for gas.
(and yes, that includes Shell at credit card prices)

 

[tbm5690]

Why do some expect gasoline to be cheaper (inflation adjusted) from anything else?
I suspect gasoline is one of the lowest inflation costs over the last 30 years.
How can it be cheaper? What people confuse are the taxes placed at the local, state, federal level AND on the refineries.
Tell me, how much cheaper do you want?
This is too cheap honestly and rock bottom. easily could be a reasonable $1 more a gallon and still be within reason.
I think those who complain need to look at their local state dynamics of taxes and fees placed on the industry in their area.

Today's prices near me, I live near the SC/NC border and am in SC all the time. NC prices are a few cents more up to around 10 cents a gallon or so but I dont make a special trip to SC for gas.
(and yes, that includes Shell at credit card prices)
View attachment 265867View attachment 265868

Agreed. I think the reason the expectation exists is because it has been so cheap for so long that any spike sets people off, and it's not something that you can really cut back on, especially if you are commuting for work. Gas is an absolute sliver of my monthly budget at roughly $150 for two vehicles...my wife short trips around town and my work commute is only 15 miles round trip so we drive far less than most but I frankly don't care what prices do.

 

[SC Maintenance]

There is a 12 day t-bill auction this week, for those of you fearful of commitment.

In all seriousness, this is third world banking stuff - truly. Borrow $40B for 12 days?

 

[Vil_Riker]

There is a 12 day t-bill auction this week, for those of you fearful of commitment.

In all seriousness, this is third world banking stuff - truly. Borrow $40B for 12 days?

View attachment 266200

Would you invest in a 10 year note today?

 

[SC Maintenance]

Would you invest in a 10 year note today?

No. Not advice - just my opinion.

 

[Vil_Riker]

No. Not advice - just my opinion.

Was a rhetorical question. We might be on the cusp of big inflationary pressures.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Was a rhetorical question. We might be on the cusp of big inflationary pressures.

I mean, a lot of people smarter than me keep saying yields will fall.

If they go up much more, the fed will drive them down.

I seriosly considered it when they hit 4.8% a couple months ago.

 

[alarmguy]

This is a time where many learn a lesson.

Your investments are nothing more than vaporware until they are turned into realized profits/gains.

Sometimes I wish I would follow my own advice
I hope I’m wrong, but I got a really bad feeling or maybe better said my hard earned gains this year are turning into vapor.

Personally I’m well protected, the majority of my retirement and assets is not in the stock market, but I’ll admit I have a significant amount invested enough to be upsetting if this turns out to be the Big Bang.

 

[Pablo]

I was down 0.17% yesterday. Might be a buyer soon.

 

[alarmguy]

I was down 0.17% yesterday. Might be a buyer soon.

I hope so

 

[Pablo]

I hope so

Nibble when there is despair in the air.

 

[Pablo]

Buddy just texted me:

“How to play prepper theme?”

I raffed

 

[alarmguy]

Nibble when there is despair in the air.

You know? I long had the opinion that one day we would have to stop adding to the National Debit and once we stop living off that constant borrowing what might happen. Meaning false economy or not?

Maybe I am a bit jittery, we really have a new form of thinking in Washington. Not sure about the stability and what could become of a breeze against the house of cards we built.
Lots of unknowns. Hopefully it works out, Im not selling anything at this point. I just dont like giving up gains *LOL*
I do wonder what the average American might do when they look at their 401k's should we enter a correction.

My wife and I ? Are about to pull the trigger on two new iPhones, literally this morning, now all of a sudden I feel like I have time. However as of this morning for the month Apple increased the trade in value of our 2 iPhone 13's ... now I feel like I need to think if I really need it or not.

Worse for me, my wife who still works, deals with companies around the world, from her work station in our house and all of a sudden orders are being put on hold out of China so the end customer (through their salesperson) will know a correct price, tariffs now clouding the price. Cant quote prices if you dont know the prices. I get constant updates from her and this morning she keep walking in my office saying, another order on hold until pricing can be figured out. These are big numbers, not end user stuff.

Ps, also company wide sales as well as internationally are off to a slow start this year after a banner year in 2024/ down about 10%
With that said, you dont let one tiny fragment of one business affect your thinking but sometimes hard for me to ignore, though at times she has been a pretty good indicator there are always stocks that prevail. Like WMT did though Covid.

 

[Pablo]

Bought just a little LRGF.

 

[cptbarkey]

You know? I long had the opinion that one day we would have to stop adding to the National Debit and once we stop living off that constant borrowing what might happen. Meaning false economy or not?

Maybe I am a bit jittery, we really have a new form of thinking in Washington. Not sure about the stability and what could become of a breeze against the house of cards we built.
Lots of unknowns. Hopefully it works out, Im not selling anything at this point. I just dont like giving up gains *LOL*
I do wonder what the average American might do when they look at their 401k's should we enter a correction.

My wife and I ? Are about to pull the trigger on two new iPhones, literally this morning, now all of a sudden I feel like I have time. However as of this morning for the month Apple increased the trade in value of our 2 iPhone 13's ... now I feel like I need to think if I really need it or not.

Worse for me, my wife who still works, deals with companies around the world, from her work station in our house and all of a sudden orders are being put on hold out of China so the end customer (through their salesperson) will know a correct price, tariffs now clouding the price. Cant quote prices if you dont know the prices. I get constant updates from her and this morning she keep walking in my office saying, another order on hold until pricing can be figured out. These are big numbers, not end user stuff.

Ps, also sales company wide as well as internationally are off to a slow start this year after a banner year in 2024/ down about 10%
With that said, you don let one tiny fragment of one business affect you, though at times she has been a pretty good indicator but there are always stocks that prevail. Like WMT did though Covid.

This average American locked his 401k (again) in stable funds early last week, made several financial adjustments and family planning. Purchases are limited to hands on vocational tasks. I don't see much future in AI but I've only been in IT for my entire career so what do I know?

Bringing out a magic crystal ball, I think the US is going to attempt to become a pre WW2 industrial military complex again and focus on arms sales now that certain actions have been taken and its direct actions have been halted.

 

[SC Maintenance]

The question is how greedy to get on my VIX long. I will likely sell at least half shortly.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.