I disagree, respectfully. My entire discussion was macro and investment. Micro economics is supply / demand curves and their elasticity. My discussion had no bearing on how meals out spending is highly elastic and gasoline spending is not. Micro and macro are not all that joined at the hip. Macro may affect the supply/demand curve, but not much the other direction.
The macro economy is simply the sum of all private and government transactions. So it can and does turn rapidly. As mentioned its usually the result of a shock. Most recessions then, are some sort of shock. 1980 was a inflation shock and was short lived. 2001 was a combination of .com melt down followed by 9/11 which lowered sentiment. 2008 was a deflationary bank balance sheet bust, and the latest was clearly the pandemic - although government spending ended that, which lead to a growth shock (and 9% inflation). Shocks can go both ways.
Small business generally does not borrow more during low rate environments. Low rates almost always indicated a slow or slowing economy. Businesses do not want to borrow. This is part of Keynes paradox of thrift. In fact during the ZIRP periods, small business formation was significantly slower than during the most recent fed tightening cycle from March 22 till recently.
Ie the fed controls much less than they would like you to believe
I don't think were going have a recession with all the spending, but inflation will come and go in fits. We could have deflationary periods also. ie we will not have price stability. But I do believe were getting pretty close to fiscal dominance. That will make for a whole different set of theories.
And for the record, I am fully invested, mostly in S&P500 stuff - because TINA. Hat tip
@Pablo