*Investors Blog*

The mid east war is horrible beyond words, but speaking purely of economics, the port strike will affect the US economy much more. Israel has been fighting off enemies since forever. The economic effect of the war will likely be contained to that region, mostly.
I’m really not an alarmist, not at all.
At the same time, I caution not that means to do anything about it, but be aware sometimes a spark can ignite a big fire, and even the threat of one can affect world markets.

As of right now, somethings going on in Tel Aviv and Israeli jet fighters just shot something down over the ocean no information doesn’t mean anything just something to be aware of. I would think.
And explosions and smoke have been seen over Tel Aviv
 
I’m really not an alarmist, not at all.
At the same time, I caution not that means to do anything about it, but be aware sometimes a spark can ignite a big fire, and even the threat of one can affect world markets.

As of right now, somethings going on in Tel Aviv and Israeli jet fighters just shot something down over the ocean no information doesn’t mean anything just something to be aware of. I would think.
And explosions and smoke have been seen over Tel Aviv
I think it's bad. I think it's horrible. All of it. Innocent proletariat pay a horrible price.
 
How do you guys invest in Bitcoin? I've never had trust in it but it seems like it's resilient enough to dip my toe in it.
 
How do you guys invest in Bitcoin? I've never had trust in it but it seems like it's resilient enough to dip my toe in it.
This is a good place to start.
How do you guys invest in Bitcoin? I've never had trust in it but it seems like it's resilient enough to dip my toe in it.
This is a good source of information plus US based and maybe now the largest.
I only have a very small amount, left over from a sale when I sold off most all of it once it hit a high price of around 11k maybe around 2017 (yeah I know, dont remind me) *LOL*

Anyway as far as security after a few bumps in the road years back I feel just as safe there as any banking website if that matters. I like that it's USA based too.

https://www.coinbase.com/how-to-buy... buy bitcoin&utm_content=[how to buy bitcoin]
 
Question?
Why would anyone want to buy Tesla as a technology company when you have Meta selling at a very reasonable PE and knocking them dead with the new technology that they are coming out with?
Never mind a couple billion people already on their platform.
Just today’s feeling, I got in at 500. And it’s still selling at a very reasonable P/E ratio.

Yeah, technology companies. You never know. This is the first time I’m in one as an individual stock purchase and I’m kind of liking what’s taking place so far not that that means anything but we shall see.
 
Question?
Why would anyone want to buy Tesla as a technology company when you have Meta selling at a very reasonable PE and knocking them dead with the new technology that they are coming out with?
Never mind a couple billion people already on their platform.
Just today’s feeling, I got in at 500. And it’s still selling at a very reasonable P/E ratio.

Yeah, technology companies. You never know. This is the first time I’m in one as an individual stock purchase and I’m kind of liking what’s taking place so far not that that means anything but we shall see.
If I may parse your question. Purely my opinion and not trying to be argumentative.

on META - 98% of their revenue is advertising, and there user base is aging. Young people are not using Facebook, and even Instagram at this point is loosing the youngest generation to snapchat, tik-tok - so declining customer base. Additionally, as we saw when Elon bought Twitter the user numbers were significantly over-inflated. Since Meta runs there platforms on very similar principals it likely would surprise no one their numbers are inflated as well. Lastly, yes they have a bunch of AI but its aimed at the whole online content universe - the other AI companies are looking at disrupting entire industries, not just content creation.

So generically while I can see them being successful, not as much as Google, Microsoft, Apple - which have much more diverse business models. But of course it just takes that one new shiny object to juice a stock so who knows.

As for TSLA - those investors are waiting on robo-taxi or humanoid robots or whatever. If that happens Elon goes from being the smartest guy in the room to Tony Stark - literally. Again, I am not betting on this - but that is the bet there. The other part is all the non-believers have been washed out. So from a purely stock price action point, its the lowest risk of all the tech stocks. They missed shipments and went down what - 3%, which they have made up this AM. I don't think the company has legs - but the stock actually looks pretty good right now?

IMHO only.
 
So jobs report crushed it. Will likely be revised down later but I suspect the fed knew this was coming - which was their giant rush to get in 50bps - they knew they could not if they waited.

So the question is - who are they trying to save. The treasury? Banks? Foreign banks?

My second biggest holding outside cash is TLT - I dumped all my oil stock money in there when I sold. Its going away today at some point, so trying to figure out where that money should go? Should have stuck with T-bills :ROFLMAO:
 
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If I may parse your question. Purely my opinion and not trying to be argumentative.

on META - 98% of their revenue is advertising, and there user base is aging. Young people are not using Facebook, and even Instagram at this point is loosing the youngest generation to snapchat, tik-tok - so declining customer base. Additionally, as we saw when Elon bought Twitter the user numbers were significantly over-inflated. Since Meta runs there platforms on very similar principals it likely would surprise no one their numbers are inflated as well. Lastly, yes they have a bunch of AI but its aimed at the whole online content universe - the other AI companies are looking at disrupting entire industries, not just content creation.

So generically while I can see them being successful, not as much as Google, Microsoft, Apple - which have much more diverse business models. But of course it just takes that one new shiny object to juice a stock so who knows.

As for TSLA - those investors are waiting on robo-taxi or humanoid robots or whatever. If that happens Elon goes from being the smartest guy in the room to Tony Stark - literally. Again, I am not betting on this - but that is the bet there. The other part is all the non-believers have been washed out. So from a purely stock price action point, its the lowest risk of all the tech stocks. They missed shipments and went down what - 3%, which they have made up this AM. I don't think the company has legs - but the stock actually looks pretty good right now?

IMHO only.
VERY well spoken and contrary to what some might think in here :) I enjoy point - counter - point stuff. Believe it or not I have a very open mind to thoughts and ideas.
This is good in my eyes and why maybe the stock is a bargain to me and others on this side of the fence. But that is what investing is about. I look at Tesla and all the stuff they are supposed to come out with is already in the price, speculation. Even Robots, other companies make them already, so to me it's another product that many have in the pipeline. Example, not sure if you saw my post, BMW in Spartanburg already was experimenting with humanoid robots (you know arms, legs and hands) doing work on the production lines. Simple tasks that humans already have to do.

I already posted why I like Facebook, they to have products many are not aware of, including Possible iPhone killers, some analysts are amazed by the Rayban glasses, others the possibilities of teaming up with EssilorLuxottica. Supposed to be amazing stuff, like WOW.
But the thing is, since I use the platform I have seen a MAJOR transition in the way Facebook is used and its AI algorithms to keep people engaged and 2.5 billion of people no less. We live in a large community with 4 FB user groups, every community I know of has them.
I do not think they will kill the iPhone anymore than Tesla will be the world leader with some ground breaking tech. I see the advertising revenue and it's going to continue to explode while they build on everything AI and devices you will not have to hold in your hands. (as you can see this is a possible disruption to entire industry) So killing the iPhone can be a possibility.
I still think Tesla is a $60 to $80 stock, but this is why we invest as we do. I rarely hold a stock long term except WMT but I am thinking I am staying all in with META and maybe adding significantly more... Im already in big for this account might go all in, 50/50 Meta WMT

Im unsure about the demographics you see I know lots of people in this forum say META users are aging but the numbers dont lie. They are right in the cusp world wide of the prime spending demographics. I do think the change has been more older people are now more tech savvy and that has led them to places like Facebook, a place they never knew how to even begin to.

Ether way, I look at the future and this company is running on all 8 of 8 cylinders with what I think is "mind blowing" tech IF and only IF costs can be brought down to the masses. I see Tesla floundering about on hopes and prayers. I certainly think Meta with Facebook right now has a more stable base of over 2 billion people than Tesla relying on the automotive industry.

Good Conversation and IMHO only too! If everyone invested the same, then no one would be able to make money.
I pulled up Facebook Demographics only because I do not see it as an old people platform. I know many do in here *LOL*

Now I have to go drink my coffee, sleepless night last night, a lot going on in my life. One day I will may post that adventure. It is good to plan but make sure you are enjoying life as you do, you never know what is around the corner of life.
If I need to repeat it, Im just explaining my current reasoning and love of META. I am NOT saying I am right. If I knew that, I would risk far more but if I am wrong and hold it will sting.

USA -
Screenshot 2024-10-04 at 10.06.30 AM.webp


World wide (but you can get numbers on all the major countries)
Screenshot 2024-10-04 at 10.08.20 AM.webp


This is the unknown technology speculation that is currently available and to be refined for quite some time. But the product has impressed some of the financial world (I only learned this very recently) and why I say META is a Tech company. I hope I am right but this is what speculation is about right? and to me a bargain stock price at the time $500 a share. now $582 and you know now that I replied in here about all of this, I will lose my shirt on this company :p

"The latest generation of Ray-Ban Meta glasses, introduced by EssilorLuxottica and Meta in the Fall of 2023, have advanced technology built seamlessly into Ray-Ban’s iconic frames. They give consumers superpowers, including the ability to make phone calls, capture and share photos and videos, listen to music, and livestream content. "
Source- https://www.essilorluxottica.com/en...tica-and-meta-announce-long-term-partnership/
 
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Market popped cause of job report.
Are these mostly McJobs than won’t support a family ?

I’m at near all time highs in my 401K, IRA and brokerage.
 
VERY well spoken and contrary to what some might think in here :) I enjoy point - counter - point stuff. Believe it or not I have a very open mind to thoughts and ideas.
This is good in my eyes and why maybe the stock is a bargain to me and others on this side of the fence. But that is what investing is about. I look at Tesla and all the stuff they are supposed to come out with is already in the price, speculation. Even Robots, other companies make them already, so to me it's another product that many have in the pipeline. Example, not sure if you saw my post, BMW in Spartanburg already was experimenting with humanoid robots (you know arms, legs and hands) doing work on the production lines. Simple tasks that humans already have to do.

I already posted why I like Facebook, they to have products many are not aware of, including Possible iPhone killers, some analysts are amazed by the Rayban glasses, others the possibilities of teaming up with EssilorLuxottica. Supposed to be amazing stuff, like WOW.
But the thing is, since I use the platform I have seen a MAJOR transition in the way Facebook is used and its AI algorithms to keep people engaged and 2.5 billion of people no less. We live in a large community with 4 FB user groups, every community I know of has them.
I do not think they will kill the iPhone anymore than Tesla will be the world leader with some ground breaking tech. I see the advertising revenue and it's going to continue to explode while they build on everything AI and devices you will not have to hold in your hands. (as you can see this is a possible disruption to entire industry) So killing the iPhone can be a possibility.
I still think Tesla is a $60 to $80 stock, but this is why we invest as we do. I rarely hold a stock long term except WMT but I am thinking I am staying all in with META and maybe adding significantly more... Im already in big for this account might go all in, 50/50 Meta WMT

Im unsure about the demographics you see I know lots of people in this forum say META users are aging but the numbers dont lie. They are right in the cusp world wide of the prime spending demographics. I do think the change has been more older people are now more tech savvy and that has led them to places like Facebook, a place they never knew how to even begin to.

Ether way, I look at the future and this company is running on all 8 of 8 cylinders with what I think is "mind blowing" tech IF and only IF costs can be brought down to the masses. I see Tesla floundering about on hopes and prayers. I certainly think Meta with Facebook right now has a more stable base of over 2 billion people than Tesla relying on the automotive industry.

Good Conversation and IMHO only too! If everyone invested the same, then no one would be able to make money.
I pulled up Facebook Demographics only because I do not see it as an old people platform. I know many do in here *LOL*

Now I have to go drink my coffee, sleepless night last night, a lot going on in my life. One day I will may post that adventure. It is good to plan but make sure you are enjoying life as you do, you never know what is around the corner of life.
If I need to repeat it, Im just explaining my current reasoning and love of META. I am NOT saying I am right. If I knew that, I would risk far more but if I am wrong and hold it will sting.

USA -
View attachment 243588

World wide (but you can get numbers on all the major countries)
View attachment 243589

This is the unknown technology speculation that is currently available and to be refined for quite some time. But the product has impressed some of the financial world (I only learned this very recently) and why I say META is a Tech company. I hope I am right but this is what speculation is about right? and to me a bargain stock price at the time $500 a share. now $582 and you know now that I replied in here about all of this, I will lose my shirt on this company :p

"The latest generation of Ray-Ban Meta glasses, introduced by EssilorLuxottica and Meta in the Fall of 2023, have advanced technology built seamlessly into Ray-Ban’s iconic frames. They give consumers superpowers, including the ability to make phone calls, capture and share photos and videos, listen to music, and livestream content. "
Source- https://www.essilorluxottica.com/en...tica-and-meta-announce-long-term-partnership/
Again, I don't own the stock, my analysis is less pragmatic. There is a big difference in a 25 year old having a Facebook account, and someone that spends any time there. Also given META's advertising revenue coincides with Twitters loss in revenue - which makes sense - since META uses the same manipulation funneling that Twitter used to and advertisers love that stuff. And while us old farts are too dense to notice, the younger crowd realizes immediately when there the product.

Anyway I do hope it pays out for you. I likely have enough in all my SPY holdings that it would be OK for me too.
 
Market popped cause of job report.
Are these mostly McJobs than won’t support a family ?

I’m at near all time highs in my 401K, IRA and brokerage.
Same garbage - household survey says things still suck, establishment survey which has less than 40% response rate says things are great - so the headline is things are great. Will be revised out on the next QCEW report. But its the last jobs report before election, so you do the math.

Continued bouncing around the channel until something real changes.

"Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.8
million, changed little in September. These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the
jobless rate was 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.3 million. (See table
A-1.)"
 
Market popped cause of job report.
Are these mostly McJobs than won’t support a family ?

I’m at near all time highs in my 401K, IRA and brokerage.
No. Fake jobs that will be revised away Jan-Feb 2025

Yeah me too, even though some of my bond funds got beat a little today.
Hiring was concentrated in construction, health care, leisure and hospitality, and government jobs. White-collar sectors like business and professional services and finance added a negligible number of new jobs, while hiring outright declined in manufacturing. Gains were not evenly distributed.

The numbers will be revised, but are still remarkable.

Regardless of revisions, the numbers blew past economists’ estimates. Forecasts were for 150,000 new jobs in September.
The strong figure has raised optimism on Wall Street that the economy will achieve a soft landing, defined as a scenario in which inflation comes down and there’s no recession.

Put on your economist's hat; there's more benefit in the near future: The Federal Reserve's larger-than-expected interest rate cut last month is still taking hold which economists say should help spur demand in industries sensitive to borrowing rates, such as manufacturing, housing and autos.

This economy is bulletproof. And anyone can make money in this market.
 
Irrational Exuberance
Actually it's called Economics. The economy is like a huge sailing ship; it does not turn on a dime. It takes time for interest rate changes to take effect.
The US economy is the envy of the rest of the world.

I would be interested in your thoughts; why you agree or disagree. At least post credible economics articles.
Let's have a discussion!
 
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