*Investors Blog*

[alarmguy]

When is the commercial real estate market going to crash.... and how has it not, already ?

I might be in my own little world here but the economy is cooking hot, not sure why commercial will crash?
I know the stories of falling commercial but to me that is a product of company consolidation of office space since Covid. Regional too as companies move out of less business friendly states is getting much easier than ever.
I would like to see for example, stats on Charlotte NC and various areas of Texas. True northern states getting hammered but for a reason.


... and while that is at it, residential will continue to climb as interest rates fall.
Just my thoughts but as long as the USA continues to borrow money and make believe things are good, they will be good. The day that it stops will be the pay back, maybe 10 years? 20? I dont know. I hear we are now close to paying one trillion dollars a year in interest payments but that doesnt matter because we borrow 3 trillion *LOL* or more.
http://usdebtclock.org as long as this keeps humming a along, no problem, the younger generation will pick up the tab one day.

 

[alarmguy]

Actual REALIZED/LOSS so far this year on trades, total gain = 16.93% Does not include current holdings.
Still trying to analyze this myself *LOL*

Following trades on the list is the following order,
GM
GM
APPL
GM
WMT
NVDA
NVDA (this was one share bought by mistake)
Last line = Account Total

 

[alarmguy]

Current positions - Following order
GM
META
WMT
(GM and Meta purchased very recently GM days ago, Meta a couple weeks ago)
Last line is total gain, second chart is percent of account. (gulp)

 

[Pablo]

NVDA zoomed up from 103 to 118

Bought back my contracts right quick and again enjoying the upside. Hate selling covered calls on my phone so will hold off until next week.

In general paid the card off as usual and have been ATH W-Th-F

 

[demarpaint]

NVDA zoomed up from 103 to 118

Bought back my contracts right quick and again enjoying the upside. Hate selling covered calls on my phone so will hold off until next week.

In general paid the card off as usual and have been ATH W-Th-F

Covered calls are sweet. I love put spreads on high fliers too.

 

[Owen Lucas]

You guys need to start your own ETF: BITOG

 

[Dave Hess]

Boeing machinists going on strike to get what they deserve…...
I’m 100% in favor of a strike for however long it takes.

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/nx-s1-5110310/boeing-machinists-union-strike

 

[Pablo]

Boeing machinists going on strike to get what they deserve…...

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/nx-s1-5110310/boeing-machinists-union-strike

Ridiculous

Greed is not just for management anymore

 

[Dave Hess]

I’m in favor of the worker ‘ants’ making more money and having better benefits.

If that means not working for 2, 4 or 6 months….. then that’s what they need to do.

*** Full Disclosure ***
I’m NOT a union member.

 

[Pablo]

I’m in favor of the worker ‘ants’ making more money and having better benefits.

If that mean not working for 2, 4 or 6 months then that’s what they need to do.

The offer was more than generous

Joke complete idiotic greed

 

[gfh77665]

The yield curve is no longer inverted.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I am 100% in agreement that workers should be allowed to organize if they wish, and all that goes on with it. I also believe in right to work - freedom goes both ways.

However since this is the Investors blog, when I was bottom fishing I looked carefully at Boeing. I am not an analyst, but I honestly do not know how they won't end up in Bankruptcy. I am not talking liquidation - just they have way too much debt in anything other than a ZIRP world to survive, so they will need to shed that debt - IMHO. Or sell a lot more airplanes. So I have a feeling the Union is of the opinion they have a lot more leverage than maybe they do. They have exactly 52 days before no one cares anymore.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Boeing machinists going on strike to get what they deserve…...
I’m 100% in favor of a strike for however long it takes.

https://www.npr.org/2024/09/13/nx-s1-5110310/boeing-machinists-union-strike

Ridiculous

Greed is not just for management anymore

What's fair? Depends on what side of the deal you are on and who has the power.

Capitalism baby!

 

[Pablo]

What's fair? Depends on what side of the deal you are on and who has the power.

Capitalism baby!

They can and should be free to ask but refusing a 24% hike? Laughable.

 

[SC Maintenance]

They can and should be free to ask but refusing a 24% hike? Laughable.

When was there last raise? If it was pre pandemic that’s reasonable actually.

 

[Pablo]

When was there last raise? If it was pre pandemic that’s reasonable actually.

If they didn’t have annual adjustments maybe, I am unsure about what annual adjustments they received

 

[Dave Hess]

I once had a nice chunk of BA stock, sold everything when 787 battery problems and bought AMZN.

Boeing is a company with lots of problems, no doubt these problems have been festering over the past decade.

No denying the company is in shambles due to terrible, terrible, terrible leadership.

 

[mjk1967]

Real estate as a whole is highly regional. It is one of the most pure instance of supply vs demand. With interest rates expected to drop, mortgages become cheaper so home prices are likely to rise, all else being equal.

Good luck if you are in the market.

I'm just using the eye ball test. I drive for a living. The amount of completely empty office space is staggering.
I was on the General Mills campus about a month ago, and had a conversation. There used to be 4k workers onsite. It now has perhaps 100, mostly construction workers, security, and facilities maintenance.

I asked the person 'how long can this go on' ? In this case, it is different as they have functions weekly from employees across the globe. They'll never sell.

On the other hand, Honeywell has a property near me. That property had 2k employees, now all gone (jobs moved to other states, or areas of the metro).

They've tried to rent out space over the years, and can't get a sniff. The infrastructure is essentially 80s and 90s tech.

Then again there is a dirty secret under the property that is going to cause this community to go nuclear. Forever chemicals have been found in the ground water... shhh.

 

[alarmguy]

They can and should be free to ask but refusing a 24% hike? Laughable.

It even caught union leadership, surprised it was voted down so strongly. They thought they did good with the 25% bump in pay from roughly 76k a year to 106k and a WHOLE shooting match of other benefits including over a 4k increase to each workers 401k's, better health care, etc etc ... Union leaders said it was “the best contract we’ve negotiated in our history.”
Workers dont agree, I guess that they got their ideas from the auto unions. Good for them, whether they dig their own grave or not, sometimes stupid put many of their fellow workers out of a job. Good news for South Carolina, good news that Boeing moved some production here.
source https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/economy/boeing-strike-union-contract.html

Ps, the difference here is he auto companies where doing well when they were voting on a contract. Boeing seems like a sick company though I do wonder what could be in two years, feast or famine in the stock price, sometimes I wonder if this company will ever do anything right anymore. They need a better CEO or something.

 

[JeffKeryk]

They can and should be free to ask but refusing a 24% hike? Laughable.

24% of what?