Yep, where did all those people calling us tinfoil hat fearmongering nuts go when we were making fun of these numbers a year ago?
The numbers are what they are and they are reported the way they are reported. Then they are revised to what they’re revised to. I’m agnostic to this process except to the lazy people who simply claim “election year” suggesting the BLS is partisan. Notice I’m not screaming they’re helping the other team on purpose now. As I see it:9999Yep, where did all those people calling us tinfoil hat fearmongering nuts go when we were making fun of these numbers a year ago?
Guess we were just nuts. The fearmongering tinfoil hat part was uncalled for
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/non...sed-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
The main thing is, either side, you can not take back the HUGE gloating, nor do 70-80% of the voting populace see the process through your educated view - and I doubt they know of the revisions! They don't don't too busy, right now, saying "see what my guy did"...........
Well one side will have to stop gloating (as much - still good numbers) and I’m sure the opposite side will use the issue to their advantage and those of us paying attention are not responsible for those who are not. Life goes on.
Fuzzy math to make someone look good…..
You find yourself on the “cutting edge” of following people who identified a model that maybe broken, good. That information will take time to disseminate and hopefully changes to the model will be made. You’re not who I’m talking about because there’s some reasonable rationale behind your comments that doesn’t just come down “election year” or bashing the motives of the BLS. However, I also don’t blame anyone who was skeptical of what you said because lots of people say lots of things.
Not sure you can really "fix" the model without breaking other parts. So they may "tune" the model. But this is the flaw in regressive models. They identify inputs that can be ignored. The problem is that when you hit an inflection point you don't know what inputs to stop ignoring. Until your here. They will tune the data points then it will miss the next inflection. Rinse repeat.
I’d like to believe this was true when numbers were off by an acceptable margin but this is the second time I’m aware of that the numbers were off by this magnitude and so hopefully, fingers crossed, this is a CTJ moment. We will have to wait and see.
Danielle Dimartino Booth has been the most vocal about it. She does have quite the edge, and is very political. Her data points are correct either way. Consider yourself warned.
Pretending jobs are strong and then revising them sharply lower the next month is a pretty neat trick. Many don't even notice it's happening. I guess this time they did. (re: 800k revision).
I look at groceries as dry goods and name brand merchandise. Everyone buys dry goods, which include trash bags and deodorant.
Agree but I thin it is more the market ignoring what is being posted in social media and mass media. Most of which didn't exist over a decade ago and we all are bewildered by the actual data which is great.
I keep telling myself the stock market is not dependent on the words of a lone man.I absolutely hate when Jerome Powell says he is “Data Dependent”….
They ask him a pre scripted question, he looks down at his notes and reads from script.
He’s data dependent on fake manipulated and lagging data ?
The stock market is machine vs machine. As soon as some report is posted the market jumps 2%. Do you really think that is human traders running to make a trade. Of course not. The Quants control things.
