*Investors Blog*

[alarmguy]

Im hanging in there, I think there are way to many nervous people in the stock market right now for there to be a significant prolonged downturn.

In a few weeks, days or months, the economy, growing like crazy is going to continue turning great profits.
Once everyone is a sure thing and everything is hunky dory, that is when I get nervous, certainly not now.
Still have my index funds in the 401k

Still have WMT, WFC and TMUS in my speculative Roth. I look at these three stocks as already being in a defensive position in my Roth.

I dont "play" the market like some in here for massive profits, its not for me, looking for good solid returns in a secure way, sure its nice to hit a good one once in a while but my intention is simply to build wealth in what I see as semi conservative way... (lack of better words) even though the world as we know it can end tomorrow and I will be eating my words!

 

[Dave Hess]

What people tends to forget is, both economic collapse and hyper inflation are bad for long term economy. It is healthy to have growth and recession and we are sort of overdue for one.

We will have a recession or depression, just not sure how big and when, to clear out the garbage in our economy (crypto? NFT? failing tech startup?), reset some debt and wipe out some greedy folks' life savings, then start another cycle with a clean slate.

Eventually it has to happen, the longer you postpone it the bigger the bubble and the bigger the crash.

Lots of bubbles that need to pop.
Feels like the dot com bubble on steroids.

 

[PandaBear]

Lots of bubbles that need to pop.
Feels like the dot com bubble on steroids.

Hard to say, we are less of a bubble like dot com back then than the roaring 20s IMO.

Back in the dot com days people were using real stock option to get real rich (basically people get 3x as many options as RSU today, so if they go up their grants go up 3x, but if they go below cost there is nothing left, vs RSU there is usually some cash value). They also use tiered exit priority to protect new investors so older investors, employees, founders get shafted instead of the later investors. So there are far fewer people getting rich off start up today than before. Back then people can buy 3 houses in cash if their employers IPO, today if they are lucky they get a downpayment, but if they are unlucky they get wiped out and you probably smash your workplace in retaliation (happened once on the news a few years ago).

The real money today is the FAANG stocks growth from big tech companies, sort of like back then in roaring 20s the big money is from electric companies and the "tech giants" like RCA, Westinghouse, GE, etc.

Will it pop like dot com? or will it roar into a great depression?

 

[Dave Hess]

Panda,

Lots of zombie companies barely keeping their head above water.

Tons of bad news in the next 6 months.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Pretty much agree with you, Panda. Dot.com companies business models in the 2000 bubble could best be compared to the South Park Underwear Gnomes business model:

1. Steal Underwear
...
3. Make a lot of money

For the dot.coms it was:

1. Start a web site
...
3. Make a lot of money.

Hmm, maybe the internet car companies that we hear about on BITOG that are selling cars for less than they pay for them are using the same model.

 

[ZeeOSix]

With the every increasing inflation, and future increases in key things like energy and gas (ie, world wide oil prices) due to the recent strife overseas, it's just a matter of time before there will be a recession - but who can best call the point of the "pop" - ?. If gas becomes $5-$6/gal and stays there a long time, you can bet it will have far reaching impacts on how people spend. At some point, people will just throw in the towel and stop spending money.

 

[Dave Hess]

Some folks are already curbing their spending habits.

Will there be less cars on the road during summer vacation season ?

A drop in air travel this summer ?

 

[Warstud]

Is anyone selling there oil related stocks ?

 

[PandaBear]

Some folks are already curbing their spending habits.

Will there be less cars on the road during summer vacation season ?

A drop in air travel this summer ?

Most likely people stop buying crewcabs and SUVs, and go back to their Civics / Corollas?

 

[PandaBear]

Is anyone selling there oil related stocks ?

Wife sold her Sinopec she got almost a decade ago, lost 50%. It was paying dividend well but it was just too much stress on her, and those dividends never recover the stock value drop.

 

[Warstud]

There fight'n to keep the SPX above 4300

 

[Dave Hess]

Most likely people stop buying crewcabs and SUVs, and go back to their Civics / Corollas?

I do believe there will be an increase of crewcabs and SUVs traded in for more fuel efficient vehicles in the near future.

 

[Warstud]

Crude Oil Up Again

 

[JeffKeryk]

I do believe there will be an increase of crewcabs and SUVs traded in for more fuel efficient vehicles in the near future.

You mean because I just filled up the piggy GS350 with Costco 91* @ $5.17 per gallon?
Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining because there are people in Ukraine with real problems...
Anyways Sue is driving the Tesla to work every day now. Yup.

 

[ArrestMeRedZ]

Shortly after the C19 depths I put about the price of a relatively inexpensive new car into ExxonMobil stock. I figured the dividend would cover all my gas expenses no matter what happened to the price of gas. Gas goes up, XOM profits (and eventually dividend) goes up to match.
So far it's been a strategy that works to isolate us from gas prices. I don't think it will work with food, though. My wife won't let me buy a ranch.

I just saw gold top $2000 an ounce for a moment. I suspect we might see new highs if the unpleasantness in Europe continues.

 

[JHZR2]

Best investing advice I ever got came from this man, Louis Rukseyser who could have passed for George Washington;

View attachment 88257

I used to think that too. Loved the theme music as a kid.

 

[JHZR2]

Shortly after the C19 depths I put about the price of a relatively inexpensive new car into ExxonMobil stock. I figured the dividend would cover all my gas expenses no matter what happened to the price of gas. Gas goes up, XOM profits (and eventually dividend) goes up to match.
So far it's been a strategy that works to isolate us from gas prices. I don't think it will work with food, though. My wife won't let me buy a ranch.

I just saw gold top $2000 an ounce for a moment. I suspect we might see new highs if the unpleasantness in Europe continues.

I did exactly the same thing.

The timing was right.

 

[Dave Hess]

Last week I put a little money in leveraged energy and oil ETFs.

I warned a few folks by PM that very bad news on the horizon and to have cash ready.

Late 2019 I also warned a few folks on here by PM when I saw out of control nightly bank repos and weak economy.

 

[Oily_Thing]

Is anyone selling there oil related stocks ?

Now is the time to buy. Oil stocks are on sale!

 

[Kjmack]

Markets go too high , markets go too low . The market is far from way too low yet .
When this emergency is past then China is going to invade Taiwan . This turbulence is here for a while , long while . And election is 3 years out. Uggggg