*Investors Blog*

Oracle announced thousands of layoffs. These are very good paying jobs.

Companies see the bad news on the horizon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oracle-reportedly-plans-lay-off-193212079.html

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people may be jumping to conclusions about company layoffs. Most of it i think has to do with people refusing to go back to the office rather than some economic calamity waiting to happen

They would mostly hit marketing positions for software and customer service.,,,,,thats a quote from the article so sounds to me like young people dont want sitting in an office again if they can do the work from home. think it was jaime dimon or some goldman bigwig threatening to fire people if they didnt want to come back to headquarters
 
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...been sayin for 2 weeks energy futures are a dumpster fire now its out of control LOL.... if oil cant rebound above 90 by the end of the week its dead and will start falling quickly to 75 a barrel

ES is bit more stubborn but it will drop violently probably 70 or 80 points for a few days straight

if the FED raises rates anymore it will be a crime since energy costs the biggest inflation component

the two .75 rate raises isnt whats causing energy declines thats purely technicals...its been signalling a drop for over a month
 
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after lumber bounces to 600 it will fall to 250 which is the march 2020 covid lockdown price...the entire equity market will follow futures lead and drop to precovid levels within the next year... lumber prices at home depot are NOT due to the econ 101 text book definition of inflation

unfortunately i dont trade lumber futures cause its so illiquid but it obeys technical chart signals...maybe when i get braver ill trade it LOL
 
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The U.S. added a sizzling 528,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to pre-pandemic levels in a muscle-flexing display for the economy. Yet the robust report could add to inflation worries and push interest rates even higher.

Interesting times, indeed.
 
The U.S. added a sizzling 528,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to pre-pandemic levels in a muscle-flexing display for the economy. Yet the robust report could add to inflation worries and push interest rates even higher.

Interesting times, indeed.
More people working, and being hired at higher pay rates, means more people have more money to spend. And since they have more money, they won't mind spending more money for inflated items they want or need. If everyone worked and made $1M/year, prices of goods would be totally out if control.

A big reason all this inflation woke up and became a monster is because people were pent-up for 2 years and are now ready to get out and spend money on big stuff they held back on. Flood gates opened and demand skyrocketed, which caused a shortage of goods which couldn't be handled due to the Covid wind down, which caused a perfect storm for inflation. And people will keep buying as long as the feeling of missing out over-rides the pain if paying more for goods. At some point people will not buy stuff, except for items of necessity. The supply needs to go up, and the demand go down ... when will that balance happen. :unsure:

The perfect storm for deflation is to make way more goods than demand, and then people with less disposable income will buy if the prices are low enough for them to justify. There might be a big price snap-back on some items like cars if the dealerships are someday flooded by over production of cars as the demand goes down.. maybe.
 
More people working, and being hired at higher pay rates, means more people have more money to spend. And since they have more money, they won't mind spending more money for inflated items they want or need. If everyone worked and made $1M/year, prices of goods would be totally out if control.

A big reason all this inflation woke up and became a monster is because people were pent-up for 2 years and are now ready to get out and spend money on big stuff they held back on. Flood gates opened and demand skyrocketed, which caused a shortage of goods which couldn't be handled due to the Covid wind down, which caused a perfect storm for inflation. And people will keep buying as long as the feeling of missing out over-rides the pain if paying more for goods. At some point people will not buy stuff, except for items of necessity. The supply needs to go up, and the demand go down ... when will that balance happen. :unsure:

The perfect storm for deflation is to make way more goods than demand, and then people with less disposable income will buy if the prices are low enough for them to justify. There might be a big price snap-back on some items like cars if the dealerships are someday flooded by over production of cars as the demand goes down.. maybe.
Good points. In Econ, they teach us that high employment results in inflation, just as you say. World events turned everything upside down and played havoc with the supply chain. So it is a true double whammy; consumers have more money and supply is decimated.

High employment is tougher on small business, because they cannot offer the total compensation the big companies can offer. I've heard even Wally World is offering education reimbursement and other bennies. Not sure...
The good news is, the better pay is focused more on the lower paying work and of course they need it the most.
 
The U.S. added a sizzling 528,000 new jobs in July and the unemployment rate fell to pre-pandemic levels in a muscle-flexing display for the economy. Yet the robust report could add to inflation worries and push interest rates even higher.

Interesting times, indeed.

I would like to see a breakdown of the pay of those jobs.

Big difference between $12/hour part-time job with zero benefits……. and $50+ an hour full-time job with great benefits.
 
I would like to see a breakdown of the pay of those jobs.

Big difference between $12/hour part-time job with zero benefits……. and $50+ an hour full-time job with great benefits.
Here's an article from the WaPo... There are other articles as well. Wages and jobs are up across the board, which is to be expected in a hot labor market. And, of course, everything is regional.
 
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The stock market has never been the economy, but much of time generally follows the economy.

The economy is far bigger and more complex than that. In fact, the stock market is part of the economy.
Is this a typo or are you agreeing with me...... because your contradicting yourself ?

BTW : When I said the "Stock Market IS the Economy" I mean the S.M. is trending down because the impact of higher rates and high inflation will have on the economy (Dont Buy).

And when I said the "Stock Market ISN'T the Economy" I mean the S.M. is trending up and is ignoring the bad economic news (Buy).
 
Well, I still not sure we are in a "recession". Yes we are per definition, but I feel COVID19 had changed things economically. We cannot assume normalcy yet. Supply chains still in chaos, curtailments, when I see the shelves full,(ammo shelves empty) empty drive-thru, and car lots full and not moving inventory, then I will worry.
 
Is this a typo or are you agreeing with me...... because your contradicting yourself ?

BTW : When I said the "Stock Market IS the Economy" I mean the S.M. is trending down because the impact of higher rates and high inflation will have on the economy (Dont Buy).

And when I said the "Stock Market ISN'T the Economy" I mean the S.M. is trending up and is ignoring the bad economic news (Buy).
I posted the definitions of the economy and the stock market in post #328.

Regarding "much of time generally follows the economy.", if you graph the economy and markets over time, there is a general correlation.
 
The bears sure got quiet.
Not sure why some of them are not playing both ways. Makes zero sense to be inverse then just go to cash. Long or short term.

I get that we still have hella inflation and we have boobs in charge, but making hay is making hay. Get your stops in buy more inverse junk at the peaks, etc

Right?
 
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