Investing Strategies. What is your move?

The US$ continues to strengthen vs other major currencies (euro, pound, etc). Commodities prices move inversely to the US$. On top of that demand (demand destruction) is also down for most commodities as the consummer slows their spending.

Corporate earnings need to be lowered.


One example this morning, Ford. They missed the sales estimates. Ford is down almost 50% YTD.


 
I just looked at precious metals charts and they all look broken headed much lower...like March 2020 levels short term. I don't know how many people here trade technically using charts but the monthly precious metals charts all look terrible.

On a fundamentals note platinum will probably be the worst preformer since it's purpose in cat converters is ending in electric cars like silver has never recovered after photographic film was discontinued because of digital cameras

I mentioned last week commodities signalling inflation has hit it's peak. The question is will corporations continue price gouging or not
 
I just looked at precious metals charts and they all look broken headed much lower...like March 2020 levels short term. I don't know how many people here trade technically using charts but the monthly precious metals charts all look terrible.

On a fundamentals note platinum will probably be the worst preformer since it's purpose in cat converters is ending in electric cars like silver has never recovered after photographic film was discontinued because of digital cameras

I mentioned last week commodities signalling inflation has hit it's peak. The question is will corporations continue price gouging or not
I don't believe PM charts are all that great in future telling. PMs are more manipulated than stocks.

More use for Pt than cats and cats are not "ending" for awhile.

Some companies already dumping inventories.
 
Oils under 99 a barrel right now...let's see how long it takes ur local gasoline station to drop the price a dime lol

They like to raise prices the same day oil runs up a couple dollars...I've seen shell raise prices twice in one day
 
Made my first order from Bullion Exchanges last week. Silver at about $1.80 over spot, about the cheapest I've found it. Most of the other exchanges have been around $3 over spot for limited quantities of 100 oz bars.
With the downturn today I'd like to grab some more, but the premium has gone up to $2.40 (including the 10 to 20 cent standard overquote for that dealer) over spot with 5 bars minimum. Since I won't pay that premium, I'll have to wait.
 
I mentioned last week commodities signalling inflation has hit it's peak. The question is will corporations continue price gouging or not.
Oils under 99 a barrel right now...let's see how long it takes ur local gasoline station to drop the price a dime lol

They like to raise prices the same day oil runs up a couple dollars...I've seen shell raise prices twice in one day
People are greedy, and my bet is everyone selling commodities will keep the prices as high as possible if/as their wholesale costs come down so they can ride the higher profit train as long as possible (price gouging). Nobody selling stuff wants to give up profits.

Only thing that will bring prices down after commodity seller's wholesale costs go down is compitition and price wars between sellers. And of course a decrease in demand would force some price decreases and maybe less profit for sellers if they don't want to be sitting on inventory.
 
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Is this due to supply constraints or softening demand? I'd buy a Maverick this afternoon if there was one available on the lot.


The article mentions that Ford has been better than most in response to supply chain issues.

The one thing missing is higher interest rates. One could speculate that higher rates are starting to deter buyers just as they are in the housing market.
 
Is this due to supply constraints or softening demand? I'd buy a Maverick this afternoon if there was one available on the lot.
All the car companies are struggling with supply chain issues. The biggie is still chip procurement, but it goes far beyond that.
Ford fell short of analyst's estimates. They did increase deliveries Q2 YOY, but still fell short of plan.
Look at Tesla. They ended 2 years consecutive delivery growth in Q2. They did beat analyst's numbers by just a little. June was the biggest month in their histroy. Shanghai was down for nearly half the quarter (I think) so deliveries went from about 330K to 250K. I am not exactly sure of the numbers, but they are out there if you are interested. Tesla manages the chip shortage better than others because they program their own firmware allowing for chip repurposing. Of course they make fare fewer vehicles than Ford, so the broken supply chain hurts them less in total numbers.
 
The Atlanta Fed late last week gave us a preview of the GDP number that will be announced later this month.

The Atlanta Fed's GDP annualized projection for the second quarter went deeper into negative territory... to negative 2.1%. This followed another week of economic data that showed additional slowing of business and consumer activity.
Chart GDP projection.jpg

The negative 2.1% number is the media headline that people will pay attention to, at least once the official second-quarter GDP appears on July 28.
 
I'm retired so I've been at 40% stock funds/60% bond funds for >2 years now. Some managed, some indexed, and around 12% non-US. This year, as always, my advisor re-balances among the various funds when allocations get out of whack. Having lived through three market downturns where we've always heard, "but it's different this time," I haven't gone into cash or tried to buy low. Timing the market means losing money around 75% of the time when the markets finally come back. Higher if you're an individual investor.
 
It will happen within the next 20 years.


I think so as well. The inter generational idea is also a good one. As housing becomes more and more expensive it will be passed on within the family.

I am also of the belief that future houses will become smaller to be more energy efficient and have less cost on maintenance as well as cheaper to build. We are already seeing that in many areas.
 
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