Investing Strategies. What is your move?

I believe since 1957 the average return for the S&P500 index is between 10-10.5%, so is it lofty or just the historical average.

Fees are lower, so more of any gains stay in my pocket.

Doesn't mean it will continue. But there is a pretty good history of the long term average being in line with those expectations.

Edited to add, I buy more every couple of weeks so if it's down right now, it's like a Black Friday sale at Macy's.
Here is a quote from Investopedia:

"
  • While that average number may sound attractive, timing is everything: Get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns."

Not telling people they shouldn't invest in low cost funds. Just trying to bound expectations.

The amusing part of the quote to me is well.....timing DOES matter.
 
Here is a quote from Investopedia:

"
  • While that average number may sound attractive, timing is everything: Get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns."

Not telling people they shouldn't invest in low cost funds. Just trying to bound expectations.

The amusing part of the quote to me is well.....timing DOES matter.

It's not something one would trade. It's an investment vehicle for those with a long time horizon.
 
I just don't look every day. I peek in every week or so and usually wish I'd not done so. But then I tried to not look when things were going up at a high rate of speed.

I am glad I'm not retiring today, but I am aggressively in, and hoping to do so, best case 5 years, worst case 7+

But I'm not panicked at the moment.

I hear you. I've lost enough out of my 401K since 1/1/22 to buy a home/property in my area. At 51 it makes me worry. I've been putting a decent amount in this thing for over 25yrs.
 
Here is a quote from Investopedia:

"
  • While that average number may sound attractive, timing is everything: Get in at a high or out at a relative low and you will not enjoy such returns."

Not telling people they shouldn't invest in low cost funds. Just trying to bound expectations.

The amusing part of the quote to me is well.....timing DOES matter.
Poorly written/edited when that is taken by itself, as someone could easily read than and think to themselves, oh I need to time the market, instead of, oh look at the long term rate of return.
 
I hear you. I've lost enough out of my 401K since 1/1/22 to buy a home/property in my area. At 51 it makes me worry. I've been putting a decent amount in this thing for over 25yrs.

I don’t want to sound like a broken record and keep repeating this….
Late last year I felt the ‘everything bubble’ was growing and it was time to exit and lock in my gains.

- Big Tech reaching new highs, had a crazy up run over the past 5 years
- Over 18,000 cryptocurrencies as of March 2022, celebrities pumping up cryptos
- NFT of monkey and other silly things selling for big $$$. Celebrities pumping NFTs

- Celebrities pumping SPACs - (from Wiki)
“A special purpose acquisition company, also known as a "blank check company", is a shell corporation listed on a stock exchange with the purpose of acquiring a private company, thus making it public without going through the traditional initial public offering process.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ce...ms-to-a-rod-fueling-the-spac-boom-11615973578
- Reddit short squeeze and young folks opening Robinhood accounts and trading their stimulus checks
- Housing in some areas of the country up 20%+ year over year
- Crazy amount of debt, pending vehicle repos and foreclosures that are in the pipeline and will soon affect the banks

Everything just gave me a bad feeling all this frenzy will not last. You just have to listen to your gut feeling and exit the casino when there’s soooo many red flags. Some say I’m timing the market, I say I’m using common sense to get out of this mega bubble.

Lets not forget about Quantitative Tightening and increasing interest rates.
 
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I don’t want to sound like a broken record and keep repeating this….
Late last year I felt the ‘everything bubble’ was growing and it was time to exit and lock in my gains.

- Big Tech reaching new highs, had a crazy up run over the past 5 years
- Over 18,000 cryptocurrencies as of March 2022, celebrities pumping up cryptos
- NFT of monkey and other silly things selling for big $$$. Celebrities pumping NFTs

- Celebrities pumping SPACs - (from Wiki)
“A special purpose acquisition company, also known as a "blank check company", is a shell corporation listed on a stock exchange with the purpose of acquiring a private company, thus making it public without going through the traditional initial public offering process.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ce...ms-to-a-rod-fueling-the-spac-boom-11615973578
- Reddit short squeeze and young folks opening Robinhood accounts and trading their stimulus checks
- Housing in some areas of the country up YOY 20%+


Everything just gave me a bad feeling and all this frenzy will not last. You just have to listen to your gut feeling and exit the casino.
Yes indeed!
 
Of course.

And even over time - timing matters.

Start early and leave it alone a long time.

Ha!
That's what I told my kids. Start early, increase what you add as you get pay raises. If you do it right, you can invest for 20 years and then never have to add another dime.

Postpone some gratification to let time work it's magic of compounded returns.

At least one has taken it to heart.

If someone puts the same sort of bite out of their earnings for 20 years, one starting at age 25 going to 45 and one starting at 45 with at the same periodic investment, the one starting at 45 will never catch up.

Example numbers: and assuming 9.4% annual return, so a full percentage point lower than the historical average.

Person A starts at $300 / month for the first year, or $3600 for the year. Increase contributions by 3% each year, so $3708 the second year on up to $6312 in the 20th year.

That person will have $250k after 20 years. Never put another dime in it for the next 20, and they will have $1.5 million.

Person B starts at year 21 putting in $6502/year and increases contributions at the same 3% ending up at $11401 in year 40.

At the end of the 40 years A has just under the $1.5 million and B has $449k

A had to contribute $93133
B had to contribute $174711

Cost of waiting 20 years to start = ($1.5 million - $449k) + ($174,811 - $93133) or about $1.133 million give or take.

Start early. Drive the used car instead of taking on a $700/month car payment. Drive the one you can get for $300-$400/month and put the other $300-400 in an index fund.

I'm not going to say no debt because debt is just a tool, a lever that one can use or abuse.

My strategy is to leave margin in my life. Neither my home nor my car cost anywhere near what "they" tell me I can afford.

Start early, don't be stupid about how you "treat yowself" and let time and compounding returns do it's magic.

At the average rate of return in my obviously contrived scenario, by year 9 your earnings equal or exceed your contributions. Between years 14 and 15, your earnings are double your contributions. By year 38, your earnings are 10x what you would be contributing had you kept contributing at the 3% per year increase.

I wish someone would have sat down with me when I was 20-25 and explained this to me. So I'm somewhere between, not to mention losing some to a divorce in the early 2000s.

But I'll still be okay :)

It's a boring strategy, but it works for me.
 
No one should get outta high school without this knowledge. Period.
Will some have a closet full of nice clothes they don't wear and drive new cars? Sure.
But give kids a fighting chance!
They for sure shouldn't, but public schools are brutally bad these days for the average kid.
 
No one should get outta high school without this knowledge. Period.
Will some have a closet full of nice clothes they don't wear and drive new cars? Sure.
But give kids a fighting chance!


Even long before high school graduation. Kids should have the experience of doing something and being compensated for their efforts. Along with that being taught how to spend and save money wisely. This comes from the parents, I wouldn’t expect the schools to teach this. They are busy with other indoctrination.
 
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Even long before high school graduation. Kids should have the experience of doing something and being compensated for their efforts. Along with that being taught how to spend and save money wisely. This comes from the parents, I wouldn’t expect the schools to teach this. They are busy with other indoctrination.
Given the state of American savings, it would appear that the parents don't have this knowledge. My father was a Yale graduate; he tought me nothing about finance. In fact, once he gave me control of his assets later in life I made several changes that took advantage of good markets and allowed him to live in his own home, with a caregiver, until he passed at 95.
I live in a money flush area. You might be surprised how few people are prepared for their future.

It is my opinion that no one should get outta 8th grade without a basic understanding of banking, loans, etc.
No one should get outta high school without an understanding of markets, retirement, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I am a big Mathematics fan, but I have used Calculus exactly 1 time in my professional career and that was a proof of concept discussion only. We need to make room for personal finance education.
Give kids a fighting chance!
 
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I hear you. I've lost enough out of my 401K since 1/1/22 to buy a home/property in my area. At 51 it makes me worry. I've been putting a decent amount in this thing for over 25yrs.
My response based on my rudimentary layperson perspective of this: With my 403B I was told to make it well diversified and adjust the risk to your age/retirement future. Visit it annually and make minor adjustments. Then - let it ride through the ups and downs. During down times, I was told you are buying more shares at lower prices - ready to grow better during the up times.

We have a few (maybe one?) opposing views in this thread that suggests it is better to pull your money out at predicted down times to protect its value, then get back in during the bottom (lower shares cost) to ride the roller coaster back up.

In some ways, aren't both styles the same thing? In the end, there are no guarantees. War and/or depression can wipe out what we presume history will repeat. My dad (RIP) always kind of laughed at Federally protected banks, loans, etc.. - he said "what if the government/economy collapses?".

At my one year +/- count down to retirement, what I have learned is that people have arrived at successful retirement income with MANY different methods. Be cautious to believe anyone that suggests their way is better. I have seen as many people crash and burn as ones that exceeded expectation.
 
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Of course.

And even over time - timing matters.

Start early and leave it alone a long time.

Ha!
Some people talk like"Timing The Market" is a Sin. But I've bought stocks at there highs before and it took years to recover some of them losses and still they never traded higher than I paid for them and had to sell for a loss. Patience Pays.
 
Warstud,

I follow the trucking industry very, very closely. When truckers (back in 2019) were reporting mass layoffs and bankruptcies in the fracking industry, it was a good time to dump all Oil / Gas / Energy investments.

When Covid shut down the globe and oil price went negative…... I LOADED up on oil / energy and leveraged oil ETFs to benefit from the rebound. Timing the market or using common sense ?

Bob the CB talking, gear shifting, jake braking trucker was talking about the fracking industry in shambles long before any folks on CNBC mentioned the bankruptcies.
👷‍♂️
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...acking-pioneer-files-for-bankruptcy-owing-9bn

If an investor pays attention to all the red flag warnings, they can (re)position holdings in their portfolio to benefit from the bad news.

Did you hear of the possible diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) shortages in the very near future ?
You think gasoline, diesel and food prices are expensive now, just wait till trucks start parking and no longer making deliveries.
 
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