Investing Strategies. What is your move?

Gov picked the winners and losers.

Mom & pop ACE Hardware store forced to close….. Home Depot had 400 cars in the parking lot and people spending their stimulus cash.
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Looks like they did pretty good during the pandemic and actually increased the number of stores.
 
Again, I used “you” because you said your business.

The problem would be your prices. People with limited money would prioritize. Probably roughly in the order of lodging, food, utilities, transportation, health.

Not everyone will be laid off or have nothing. That has never been the case. In 1933, unemployment was 25%. That meant that the other roughly 75% of people would still have work. Some folks would do something to make ends meet. Even in 2020, some folks sat, some folks worked. Not everyone had the same situation. So all the same, you want to keep your livelihood, you’re going to either work with folks of lesser means and issues paying, or they will do without and you’ll just make less. Very simple.


Your idea of what your livelihood is worth in that situation is potentially different than others’ view on it or reality. You might need to take a 50% pay cut. Or put some of your staff at fewer hours, or take a loan. This is the nature of business, small business especially. Many fail due to different situations.

The government sure would take on debt to continue operations. Heck, it does that every day normally. That’s not the issue per se. The issue is printing trillions in handouts, loans that were never expected to be repaid, money supply nobody could chase, and indebtedness that you or I or our kids and kids kids will need to pay off but will never be able to. Not ok.

And frankly, that’s really what this is all about. Not your business or you. It’s the endless money that isn’t real, sucking things ultimately dry, and for what end? And to what next perturbation that has the potential to be worse than the last. You think you deserve $x/yr compensation and to keep your business. So you also deserve to pay off $y that is your share of the National debt as a result. Will you? Neither will anyone else. So then what? Nobody knows what will happen when debt goes sky high. Devalue the dollar? Do something else? What economic waves and issues will happen? That’s the point.
Go read about The Great Depression - you GREATLY underestimate the TEN year effect it had on the EVERYONE.

1. High Unemployment: The unemployment rate soared to around 25%, leaving millions of people without jobs. Finding employment became extremely challenging, and those who managed to secure jobs often faced reduced wages and long working hours.

2. Poverty and Homelessness: The Depression led to a significant increase in poverty rates. Many families were unable to afford basic necessities such as food, shelter, and clothing. Homelessness became a major issue, with people living in makeshift shantytowns known as "Hoovervilles" or relying on charity and government support. Remember it lasted TEN years? Do YOU have TEN years of savings?

3. Economic Struggles: Banks failed, businesses closed down, and agricultural activity declined. This resulted in a downward spiral of economic activity, with people having little money to spend. The stock market crash of 1929 played a major role in triggering the Depression and caused many individuals to lose their life savings.

4. Dust Bowl: In the Midwestern and Southern regions of the United States, a combination of drought, poor farming practices, and economic challenges created the Dust Bowl. This environmental disaster resulted in severe dust storms, crop failure, and forced many farmers to abandon their land, adding to the hardships faced during this period.

5. Government: Tax revenue dropped off a cliff, government spending increased, and the national debt-to-GDP ratio went from 16% in 1929 to 51% in 1940!!!!!!!! A HUGE increase in debt. Taxes went UP to try and compensate exacerbating everyone's pain.

This sounds better? The answer is it can't possible sound better because the end result was still out of control government spending and increased debt and the only difference compared to now is this lasted TEN years and MOST people suffered the ENTIRE time after losing EVERYTHING.

It's really hard to believe I'm debating someone that depression which increases debt was the better choice than increased debt and avoiding all the hardships. If you had lived through it, you'd probably be singing a different tune. It is a ridiculous position.
 
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Since the original investor thread got 🔒ed , let’s try the second edition.

2022. Inflation. Rising taxes. The shifting into a new economy. How are you adapting your investments and portfolios?
Not changing a dam thing. Just figure out what ratio of low cost broad bond-ETF to low cost broad stock-ETFs you need, and don't change it because of short to medium term macro events. Change that ratio because of age, or a reduction or increase in risk tolerance. That's it. Don't use an active fund manager because they will underperform for you and rebalance as little as possible if it will induce a taxable event. Tax loss harvest at all opportunities and otherwise consider real investing to be boring and easy. Now, if you want to talk about individual risk on assets, that's really more like gambling, and you will not get legit answer because it's too personalized for what makes sense to you. I peronsonally have a very large % of my money in very high risk assets but if I lost it all I'd be ok but for what I consider actual investing, don't change anything.
 
401K: as usual, dollar cost averaging between 25% USD, 50% US index fund (S&P 500), 25% international large cap

Free play money: stay the course of my stock pick in the last several years, basically holding Microsoft, AMD, Amazon, but not buying more.

Personal investment: studying a couple new skills so I can find a higher paying job. My domain is shrinking so the potential for more income is limited.

Children: start a stock accounts for them and give each a share of McDonalds, to get them interested, then gradually get more interesting companies' stock for them so they can get interested in how investment work early on, so they will invest early in life.
^This. People don't understand the time variable is the most important one, by far, as it is the only variable in the compound interest equation with an exponent.
 
Not changing a dam thing. Just figure out what ratio of low cost broad bond-ETF to low cost broad stock-ETFs you need, and don't change it because of short to medium term macro events. Change that ratio because of age, or a reduction or increase in risk tolerance. That's it. Don't use an active fund manager because they will underperform for you and rebalance as little as possible if it will induce a taxable event. Tax loss harvest at all opportunities and otherwise consider real investing to be boring and easy. Now, if you want to talk about individual risk on assets, that's really more like gambling, and you will not get legit answer because it's too personalized for what makes sense to you. I peronsonally have a very large % of my money in very high risk assets but if I lost it all I'd be ok but for what I consider actual investing, don't change anything.


This has been the ideal strategy for years. The S&P 500 index is a popular place to start.

We talked about this earlier in the thread. The S&P with 500 companies should provide all the diversification anyone needs but the reality is that a handful of those companies dictate the direction the index is going in. People are looking for other ways to diversify. They are not getting rid of the S&P index they hold but they look for other means to strengthen their diversification.

In my case I believe in a world portfolio.
 
This has been the ideal strategy for years. The S&P 500 index is a popular place to start.

We talked about this earlier in the thread. The S&P with 500 companies should provide all the diversification anyone needs but the reality is that a handful of those companies dictate the direction the index is going in. People are looking for other ways to diversify. They are not getting rid of the S&P index they hold but they look for other means to strengthen their diversification.

In my case I believe in a world portfolio.
If by a world portfolio you mean an ETF that tracks a very broad range of a large number of global stocks, then that is not true diversification. Those types of funds typically have a very high price movement correlation to the S&P 500, they just produce lower returns. True diversification occurs when you move into assets with low or negative price movement correlation but a positive return over time. You might look at an asset correlation matrix and then use this website https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ to evaluate historic portfolio returns, drawdowns, correlations, efficient frontiers etc. It may also be worthwhile to investigate the benefit of true diversification and what that entails.
 
If by a world portfolio you mean an ETF that tracks a very broad range of a large number of global stocks, then that is not true diversification. Those types of funds typically have a very high price movement correlation to the S&P 500, they just produce lower returns. True diversification occurs when you move into assets with low or negative price movement correlation but a positive return over time. You might look at an asset correlation matrix and then use this website https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/ to evaluate historic portfolio returns, drawdowns, correlations, efficient frontiers etc. It may also be worthwhile to investigate the benefit of true diversification and what that entails.


I use multiple ETFs and funds and I don’t compare those holdings with US domestic indexes. Admittedly mine is not a simple portfolio.
 
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Another billionaire walking away from their commercial real estate…..

The deep cracks in the CRE foundation are getting bigger and nobody can ignore it.
I think Goldman Sachs took a big hit from its investments in Office Real Estate
 


Another billionaire walking away from their commercial real estate…..

The deep cracks in the CRE foundation are getting bigger and nobody can ignore it.
I wonder if the lender will be able to get a deficiency judgement and come after other Starwood assets in addition to the office buildings?
 
Smart REITs like O dumped off their office buildings last year and earlier. Most savvy investors have been avoiding office holding REITs and CMREITs that finance office buildings. No surprise in these.
 
Smart REITs like O dumped off their office buildings last year and earlier. Most savvy investors have been avoiding office holding REITs and CMREITs that finance office buildings. No surprise in these.

I was holding some REITs in the past for their juicy dividends.
 
Go read about The Great Depression - you GREATLY underestimate the TEN year effect it had on the EVERYONE.

1. High Unemployment: The unemployment rate soared to around 25%, leaving millions of people without jobs. Finding employment became extremely challenging, and those who managed to secure jobs often faced reduced wages and long working hours.

2. Poverty and Homelessness: The Depression led to a significant increase in poverty rates. Many families were unable to afford basic necessities such as food, shelter, and clothing. Homelessness became a major issue, with people living in makeshift shantytowns known as "Hoovervilles" or relying on charity and government support. Remember it lasted TEN years? Do YOU have TEN years of savings?

3. Economic Struggles: Banks failed, businesses closed down, and agricultural activity declined. This resulted in a downward spiral of economic activity, with people having little money to spend. The stock market crash of 1929 played a major role in triggering the Depression and caused many individuals to lose their life savings.

4. Dust Bowl: In the Midwestern and Southern regions of the United States, a combination of drought, poor farming practices, and economic challenges created the Dust Bowl. This environmental disaster resulted in severe dust storms, crop failure, and forced many farmers to abandon their land, adding to the hardships faced during this period.

5. Government: Tax revenue dropped off a cliff, government spending increased, and the national debt-to-GDP ratio went from 16% in 1929 to 51% in 1940!!!!!!!! A HUGE increase in debt. Taxes went UP to try and compensate exacerbating everyone's pain.

This sounds better? The answer is it can't possible sound better because the end result was still out of control government spending and increased debt and the only difference compared to now is this lasted TEN years and MOST people suffered the ENTIRE time after losing EVERYTHING.

It's really hard to believe I'm debating someone that depression which increases debt was the better choice than increased debt and avoiding all the hardships. If you had lived through it, you'd probably be singing a different tune. It is a ridiculous position.
I’m not debating that the Great Depression was hard. Of course it was. Of course lots of people, including the 75% of folks who were employable and employed suffered. It’s laughable that you would imply otherwise.

But look even at your case of the depression. Debt to GDP went from 16 to 51%. Where are we today? Over 100%? Where will we be soon? 150? 200? Sure, “these are only ratios”. But they’re also uncharted waters, especially for a country and economy as large as ours.

That’s the point.

So you think you should get some wage that the AMA or ADA or whatever lobbying group claims is right, without any sense of the realities and unknowns of where we are. You ask, and again I use the hypothetical you, “what about my business?” Well, it may fail. You may need to take a pay cut. Your business on the indebtedness of my children is not a deal I care to make. As much as I genuinely hope you are as successful as your hearts desires.

The issue is the frivolity of massive handouts, massive printing of money. For what? At whose expense? Into what world of unknowns. Why, so someone could keep their business, or someone could sit at home and do nothing?!?

It’s not that I lack empathy, and it’s not that I want to see anyone suffer. It’s that I have concern about decisions that are not prudent, and decisions intended to pacify the masses, which have lingering and damaging effects. Unknown long term effects, which result in more and bigger “fixes”. There will always be losers. Bad times will always take their toll on some. That’s the unfortunate reality. Unfortunately the result of the current situation hurts everyone and we will be paying it for lifetimes.
 
There are all kinds of Reits

Public storage is considered a REIT.

AMT is a Reit that owns communication towers.

I have looked at both at one time or another. Lots of others - that own senior living and medical buildings and so on.
 
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