Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
The PPI was just released, up 10.8% on a annual basis doubling last months numbers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/who...percent-in-may-near-a-record-annual-pace.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/who...percent-in-may-near-a-record-annual-pace.html
Coinbase to lay off 18% of their employees.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coi...xecs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coi...xecs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html
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It does appear to be falling apart.
Compass and Redfin announce layoffs due to slowing housing market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/rea...announce-layoffs-as-housing-market-slows.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/rea...announce-layoffs-as-housing-market-slows.html
Credit markets will be drying up soon (no lending). RECESSION!
People will be putting stuff on sale and cash will be king again, like 2010 give or take.
Very likely. One thing to note, when they say we are officially in a recession it’s looking backwards. We are likely in a recession now but have to wait for the GDP numbers to come out and confirm what most of us know already.
Let's look at the bright side. In my high school economics class, circa 1972, I was taught that recession is a normal part of our business cycle. It rebalances our economy so that it may proceed to grow again. Sit tight on your retirement portfolios while more shares are being purchased at lower prices. Then, sit tight for the HUGE rebound.
Soon, we'll all be singing: (catch the accordian solo at 1:05!!!!!)
Soon, we'll all be singing: (catch the accordian solo at 1:05!!!!!)
With so much toxic debt on the books credit will definitely be drying up.
This house of cards will come crashing down within a year.
Analysts are slow to lower guidance, IMO the stock market is nowhere near a bottom yet.
I trade (sell put options) for income in both bull and bear markets. I like to use bull and bear leveraged ETFs. Right now I'm bullish O&G (example: ERX, GUSH) and commodities (example: COM) in general. I'm bearish everything else.
Monday I closed some profitable bearish trades.
On 5/27 I sold 16 SPXS cash covered 6/17/22 $21 puts for $1.30ea . So I was paid 16 x x $1.30 x 100 = $2080. On Monday, 6/13, I closed this trade early by buying back the the puts for $.03 ea or $48 total. Profit was $2080 - $48 = $2032 or 130% annualized.
also
on 5/27 I sold 8 TECS cash covered 6/17/22 $45 puts for $7.50ea. So I was paid 8 x $7.50 x 100 = $6000. On Monday, 6/13, I closed the trade early by buying back the puts for $.63 ea or $504 total. Profit was $6000 - $504 = $5496 which is 328% annualized.
I've been making long bets (selling put options) in the gold miners (NUGT) as of late thinking the fed would be less hawkish (chicken hawk). If their statement Wed is still hawkish I'll have to bailout (lose $) on the gold miners until the Fed becomes dovish (chicken hawks). The US dollar has been strengthening relatively speaking (against other currencies) for the last few months because of the feds hawkishness, which hurts gold miners.
I trade (sell put options) for income in both bull and bear markets. I like to use bull and bear leveraged ETFs. Right now I'm bullish O&G (example: ERX, GUSH) and commodities (example: COM) in general. I'm bearish everything else.
Monday I closed some profitable bearish trades.
On 5/27 I sold 16 SPXS cash covered 6/17/22 $21 puts for $1.30ea . So I was paid 16 x x $1.30 x 100 = $2080. On Monday, 6/13, I closed this trade early by buying back the the puts for $.03 ea or $48 total. Profit was $2080 - $48 = $2032 or 130% annualized.
also
on 5/27 I sold 8 TECS cash covered 6/17/22 $45 puts for $7.50ea. So I was paid 8 x $7.50 x 100 = $6000. On Monday, 6/13, I closed the trade early by buying back the puts for $.63 ea or $504 total. Profit was $6000 - $504 = $5496 which is 328% annualized.
I've been making long bets (selling put options) in the gold miners (NUGT) as of late thinking the fed would be less hawkish (chicken hawk). If their statement Wed is still hawkish I'll have to bailout (lose $) on the gold miners until the Fed becomes dovish (chicken hawks). The US dollar has been strengthening relatively speaking (against other currencies) for the last few months because of the feds hawkishness, which hurts gold miners.
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We might get a one day pop upwards tomorrow if the Fed pulls the trigger and hikes the rate by 75 basis points or higher. The markets want to see aggressive action from the Fed.
If they raise by 50 basis points that could be disappointing.
Economist Stephen Moore is calling for the Fed to go all out Volcker and raise by 100 basis points for at least three months successively. Now that would be something.
If they raise by 50 basis points that could be disappointing.
Economist Stephen Moore is calling for the Fed to go all out Volcker and raise by 100 basis points for at least three months successively. Now that would be something.
Friday's higher-than-expected inflation ratings caused the market plunge. Along with that, consumer confidence indicators regarding inflation are low. We are in uncharted territory in terms of the drivers of inflation, how high will it go, how long will it last?
Further and faster rate increases hurt the risky stock market especially because a too high interest rate plunges the economy into recession. Uncertainty is the market killer; it likes to "bake in" numbers as the market is a forward looking mechanism.
The Fed does not want to push the economy, which is still growing (low unemployment and strong consumer spending) into recession.
Interest rate increases have affected the housing market and higher rates will only do more so. Values will be ultimately be pushed down. The housing market is a key backbone of the American economy.
We have been generating an unprecedented number of jobs every month consistently for over a year. In this sense, the economy is strong, which in turn leads the Fed to believe they can safely raise interest rates higher to cool off the economy. The resilience of the job market and consumer spending has kept inflation higher than it would otherwise be. Slowing this somewhat will bring inflation down, along with much needed improvements with the supply side.
Recessions come with job losses and rising unemployment. That's not what's going on now. Let's hope the Fed can walk the thin line and come up with the proper balance. Obviously the goal is a soft landing, but there are so many additional factors (big oil, war and pandemic) that make a soft landing a really good trick.
Complicated times. Uncertainty is the new norm. I'm sure these times will be explained and referenced in future Schools of Economics.
Further and faster rate increases hurt the risky stock market especially because a too high interest rate plunges the economy into recession. Uncertainty is the market killer; it likes to "bake in" numbers as the market is a forward looking mechanism.
The Fed does not want to push the economy, which is still growing (low unemployment and strong consumer spending) into recession.
Interest rate increases have affected the housing market and higher rates will only do more so. Values will be ultimately be pushed down. The housing market is a key backbone of the American economy.
We have been generating an unprecedented number of jobs every month consistently for over a year. In this sense, the economy is strong, which in turn leads the Fed to believe they can safely raise interest rates higher to cool off the economy. The resilience of the job market and consumer spending has kept inflation higher than it would otherwise be. Slowing this somewhat will bring inflation down, along with much needed improvements with the supply side.
Recessions come with job losses and rising unemployment. That's not what's going on now. Let's hope the Fed can walk the thin line and come up with the proper balance. Obviously the goal is a soft landing, but there are so many additional factors (big oil, war and pandemic) that make a soft landing a really good trick.
Complicated times. Uncertainty is the new norm. I'm sure these times will be explained and referenced in future Schools of Economics.
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In today's world with "instant information" at everyone's finger tips, and all the crazy talk about everything, it's no wonder the stock market jerks around (huge ups and downs on a daily basis) like it never has before. This goes back to market reactions based on "hysteria" driven factors.
A healthy market should NOT have crazy bipolar swings.
Have cash on the sidelines for buying opportunities.
Hopefully we get the 75 this week.
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Retail Sales for May down 0.3%. Estimate was for up 0.2%.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/may-retail-sales-fall-consumers-confront-sizzling-hot-inflation
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/may-retail-sales-fall-consumers-confront-sizzling-hot-inflation
I like your explanation. I think that the uncertainties are driven by Covid that is still affecting the global situation and the Ukraine war is the straw that will break the Camel's back (captain obvious). So many people I talk to don't seem to consider the global nature of all that is going on. Even if we managed to bring down fuel prices in the U.S. with higher production, much of the rest of the world is still floundering.
Owen Lucas
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I think at least part of the fuel price issue is the oil companies artificially holding production down, as a political move, to pressure the populace into voting another, more oil friendly way. I'm sure they aren't happy with anti-fossil fuel actions and rhetoric, so this is a well timed and thought out strategy. It's not just greed, because they could always adjust supply and increase profits anytime, but under the veil of a global crisis and administrative actions, they can squeeze out more profit and work the political angle.
A lot of people I have met still don't know or understand Ukraine, but when they look at gas prices, they think government and not the intricacies and effects of geo-politics.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...il-refiners-record-profits-are-not-acceptable
Oil companies, or any public company, could increase production or buy back stock.
Why work harder and risk money on production when you are at record profit levels already and can maximize shareholder wealth and leverage through buy backs?
Oil is an inelastic product. We will pay the price because there are no viable alternatives and we have to have it. That's Econ 1A.
I must have been skipping my Economics class the day my professor was talking about the benefits of draining from our Strategic Reserves and sending it overseas to reduce fuel prices in the USA.
With all the regulations and headaches, nobody would build a new refinery even if they were allowed to.
With all the regulations and headaches, nobody would build a new refinery even if they were allowed to.
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