He's a billionaire investor you can google search at any moment. He shorted the housing market after predicting it would crash along with the stock market and won. Now he's doing it again with 1.6 billion after 15 years which he would only do for a good reason.
Investing Strategies. What is your move?
- Thread starter PimTac
- Start date
Oh for sure, we are on the same page for the most part. I look at the Fed as trying to contain the disaster that comes from Washington spending and borrowing, absolutely, printing money, heck even the stimulus spending to insane levels. What will we correct if the people of the nation never experience being uncomfortable? Answer, sooner or later we will hit a brick wall and be forced to become really uncomfortable, that is when the house of cards comes down.
(this isnt meant to be a political statement, after all, we vote for it)
Put the address in Redfin and it will give an estimated market value.
He has been spectacularly wrong a few times lately too.
Yeah and that's gonna happen. It's impossible to be right 100% of the time. But if someone can put up the 1.6 billion in buying power that they got by using their strategy they've clearly been right a lot more times than wrong in their decision making they'll likely be right again on not all but definitely most of those short positions.
Basically rip the Band-Aid off even if it’s going to be painful.
Admittedly it happened on its own I didn’t expect it. I didn’t mention the location because it’s outside of the US.
I've made money on Visa in the past but sold some time ago. I don't really watch it anymore. I used to think they will always make money (kinda true)
Anyway, peripherally related, this is quite and interesting quick read.
Anyway, peripherally related, this is quite and interesting quick read.
Many underestimate how many people use their credit cards for everyday purchases and for bill paying, especially on autopay.
On the flip side businesses are adding fees for CC use and some companies have made changes to autopay limiting the service to debit cards or direct bank account access.
The good news, a decent chunk of folk pay off the balance every month.
I did the same.
Yes, I looked into those stats a while back and was quite surprised. If you listen to the media, everyone has cc debt, everyone has student loan debt, etc. More rubbish drummed up by DC. It seems most people are quite responsible with their money.
Another one that surprised me is 20% of new car buyers pay cash. I always figured that number would be next to nothing. When I did it in 2019 the dealer didn't act surprised at all.
JHZR2
Staff member
Long term can have losing streaks too. Especially as the US influence weakens, China’s deflating, etc. lots of headwinds all at once. It’s worthwhile to consider everything, not just play the eternal optimist. USA is probably the world safe haven for the foreseeable future, but it doesn’t mean that 10-20 years of downside are impossible, given the wide range of issues everyone is facing and have to pay for (or dissolve)…
Long term will have losing streaks, no doubt.
I guess I am an eternal optimist, given where I was as compared to today.
The goal is to have a portfolio built for the long term because there will be down terms. My strategy is to minimize recurring costs so you can more easily ride out the lean times.
The opportunity cost of money teaches us to spend our hard earned money wisely; that means long term value.
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I don't foresee a recession either -mainly because its an accounting gimmick anyway, or at least it is when your money supply was artificially inflated.
Anyone that says inflation is less, isn't paying attention. Yes, food and fuel have gone up and down (and are doing up again) but core remains high.
BTW - the fed likes to watch PCE. Its what Powell always references in his interviews, etc.
I personally don't think there is going to be a "landing" either way. I think were in for a much longer inflationary environment than most others do. I think its going to be much harder to put the inflation genie back in the bottle than the fed increasing rates a few times. That doesn't make me pessimistic. It does mean I am looking for inflation hedges however.
Also, those looking at a down months and saying see, its over - I refer you to the 1970's. It went up and down and all over.
Anyone that says inflation is less, isn't paying attention. Yes, food and fuel have gone up and down (and are doing up again) but core remains high.
BTW - the fed likes to watch PCE. Its what Powell always references in his interviews, etc.
I personally don't think there is going to be a "landing" either way. I think were in for a much longer inflationary environment than most others do. I think its going to be much harder to put the inflation genie back in the bottle than the fed increasing rates a few times. That doesn't make me pessimistic. It does mean I am looking for inflation hedges however.
Also, those looking at a down months and saying see, its over - I refer you to the 1970's. It went up and down and all over.
I like to reference the secular bear market of 1966 to 1982. If you were at or near retirement during that period it was not good news.
“In January of 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a level of 990. It would continue trading in a range of roughly 600 to 1,000 over the following 17 years. It once again reached 990 in December of 1982 before finally breaking out and heading higher.”
Was the 1966-1982 Stock Market Really That Bad? - A Wealth of Common Sense
“Investment success accrues not so much to the brilliant as to the disciplined.” – William Bernstein In January of 1966 the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a level of 990. It would continue trading in a range of roughly 600 to 1,000 over the following 17 years. It once again reached 990 in...
awealthofcommonsense.com
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