Hurricane Joaquin; another Sandy?

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Drew99GT

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http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2...washington.html

The 2 main weather models meteorologists use have drastic differences as to the forecast track; the GFS shows Joaquin getting sucked into a larger area of low pressure of the eastern seaboard and making a hard left turn into the Carolinas similar to how Sandy turned left into NJ. The Euro model is completely opposite. Time will tell.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301458.shtml?


"The shortwave ridge causing this motion
is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong
deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.
This is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72
hours. There is disagreement in the track guidance between the
ECMWF and the other dynamical models. The majority of the guidance
forecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the
storm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with
the trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to
move out to sea between North America and Bermuda."
 
High Aldwin: Magic is the bloodstream of the universe. Forget all you know, or think you know. All that you require is your intuition.

High Aldwin: [throws an apple into the air which turns into a bird] Go in the direction the bird is flying!
Burgelcutt: He's going back to village!
High Aldwin: Ignore the bird. Follow the river.

High Aldwin: I will consult the bones!
[he shakes the bones out of the pouch and studies them]
High Aldwin: [in a low voice, to Willow] The bones tell me nothing.
[pause]
High Aldwin: Have you any love for this child?
Willow: [looks at Elora] Yes. Yes, I do.
High Aldwin: [standing] The bones have spoken!

Burgelcutt: [Vohnkar has volunteered to accompany Willow on his quest] No - not Vohnkar! He's the best warrior in the village, we need him here. Vohnkar - step back!
High Aldwin: All this expedition needs is a leader. And according to the bones, that leader is... you, Burgelkutt.
Burgelcutt: VOHNKAR!
 
Another Sandy......is bad news for the middle Atlantic States and the Northeast coastal regions.

People have still not recovered from Sandy....so another storm would be devastating for people in NY, NJ.
 
Hope not.
frown.gif
 
If I was on the east coast from NC north, I would heed the conclusion that Joe [censored] has posted on Weatherbell.com today. Dr. Ryan Maue at Weatherbell is an expert on tropical storms. This is potentially NOT another Sandy; it would be much worse if it turns inland. Joe says you have to go back to the 1930's to find a similar storm. On top of that, a nor'easter will be bearing down on the coast in front of Joaquin. Hopefully, it makes the turn to the east.

BITOGERS on the east coast should start large storm preparations today. Just in case.
 
Looking ugly for us at the moment...Sandy was pretty bad...unless you like using your boat to get up and down the street...
 
No. It's not. Sandy was a hybrid system that pulled in a very very cold upper level system. This is why there was a 12 inch snowfall at Skyland in Virginia at an elevation of 3500 ft just west of D.C. Snowshoe saw over 36 inches of snow, the mountains of North Carolina and Tennessee received a good amount too. In fact when Sandy was making landfall the hurricane hunters noted it was snowing outside of their windows in the center of the storm.
Now, the possible similarity is this... If the high pressure center moving off southeastward from Newfoundland is strong enough to block this system and send it northwest into the coast then this would be very similar to Sandy. That's what made Sandy has bad as it was in that the difference in the low pressure of the storm and the high pressure to the northeast funneled all the wind and water into the coastline. This phenomenon has happened before... Hurricane Isabel in 2003, Hurricane Hugo in 89, Ernesto in 2006. In each of these events these storms tracked on a NW or NNW heading. In 2003 with Isabel it put SE Va and NE North Carolina in the right front quadrant of the storm which is the strongest part and the squeeze of barometric pressure between the low of the hurricane and the blocking high pressure to the Northeast. Where I am at.... I am growing a bit concerned. Because this synoptic setup is the worst case scenario for Southeast Virginia. If this system makes landfall just south of the state line border of North Carolina and the hurricane move due NW from that point inland.... It would be quite severe. Isabel hit farther south in Ocracoke N.C. While a very rough hit for our area... A farther north landfall near the state line, with the right front quadrant moving NW, winds unabated from the Atlantic ocean into the Chesapeake bay between the eastern shore and Fort story Va Beach, pushing all the water in from that direction as well would be quite severe. . So I'm watching the models closely and this storm.
 
The computer models are quite confused and have widespread forcasts.

I noticed this one just moved landfall right into the OBX on late Saturday:

https://www.windyty.com/?30.202,-70.488,5

That area of ESE winds south of bermuda will be kicking up a ground swell for an already active sea state for Joaquim to build upon.

I was thinking Sandy coastal flooding forecast at the time was not taking into account the large groundswell travelling under the wind swell.

I would be aligning my Ducks if I still lived in the NE. This one certainly has potential. Not quite sandy potential but the Unknown factor and uncertainty appears significantly higher.
 
Now A CAT 3 hurricane, and only the ECMWF weather model has it staying off shore.

This was the same model which predicted Sandy's left turn 3 days before the other models agreed.

Lots of easterly winds already present North of the storm generating swell into east coast, which will make storm surges worse.

Better hope the ECMWF is right this time too and it stays offshore.
 
Yep. Checking frequently. Will move good cars to shelter tonight. Keep truck in the driveway. Currently looking at 3' in our street - so...
 
Originally Posted By: Astro14
Yep. Checking frequently. Will move good cars to shelter tonight. Keep truck in the driveway. Currently looking at 3' in our street - so...


If you have drive on ramps, park the front end up on those! Another eight inches.
laugh.gif


You could even obtain cinder blocks and put them under the TIRES for more heightening. Sure, they could crumble, just don't go under there.
 
Well..the issue is a bit more complicated...it's not all level...driveway has a slope, so top of driveway is at about four feet from street level.

That means truck, when parked, won't get water on the hubs until the garage floods...or about the time my neighbor parks his boat in his level driveway next door.

But any other car would get salt-soaked at that level...not good...

The truck stays nearby in case we have to get out during the storm surge...
 
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