Jackson_Slugger
$50 Site Donor 2022
Correct, once it hits land it will be a Cat 3 Irregardless but the damage is still horrendous either way...
Hurricane Ian aims at Tampa in latest model run
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National Hurricane Center does not sell advertising, it is paid for out of your paycheck and that is where the information comes from. heck they own and/or run all the instrumentation and equipment for these forecasts, including flight level information from the planes fling through the storms and dropping instrument and why at 2Pm the day before by paying attention to this we knew the forecast was shifting from the Tampa area to Fort Myers.
We also knew that this would mean a much more intense storm since it would be hitting land before upper level shear slowed it down. This was all publicly available information, whether or not I typed long enough essays to convey this so everyone would understand I don't know but it IS WHY I posted links to the information I was typing.
Our Government NOAA and National Hurricane Center is the standard for the world and that is the "source" of information. No other.
Nope, I didn't say anything bogus. The "Media" was reporting a Cat 4 storm in an area that still isn't even experiencing a CAT 1 hurricane, never mind a 3 or 4.
Your statement that they pretty much got the forecast correct Tuesday morning is bogus at best. Not even close, The storm hit over 100 miles south of where they were talking about.
Not sure what my state has to do with anything as much as any other state with a coastline, its just a matter if you choose to live on the coast or not. If you do choose the coast, guess what, than you are subject to coastal storms/hurricanes. Not a chance I ever will have a hurricane here but maybe next year when I move to the coast!
I brought this up 30 hours ago (?)on Tuesday around 1 or 2 PM based on the NHC and NOAA statements and posted the link, this is current from NHC at 5 PM Wed Eve and shows no hurricane in Tampa where I believe all the media hype was calling for a CAT 3, as of right now, its still just a tropical storm with high hurricance gusts but doesn't qualify as Hurricane.
Just facts nothing more and one last time, it was not me, it was the information from NOAA and NHC is all I was relaying and they got it pretty spot on, eventually mass media caught on.
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My folks are in Melrose, house is on a hill & their yard consists mostly of sand under the St. Augustine, so not worried about flooding, but the wind could take one of their many tall standing trees onto the roof. They lose power out there very easily, so hoping for mild temperatures. Prayers to Florida, my cousin and her husband are in Apopka and it looks like they're about to get it.
Gosh, I love the St. Augustine/St John area, actually almost all of it up to the GA border. Almost bought there but, CDD/HOA Fees, Property Taxes and price appreciation from just 3 years ago was driving me nuts so we pulled out. Hope I don't regret it, building in NC now but my heart will always be Florida. Was there 7 times early summer into summer looking around.
Jackson_Slugger
$50 Site Donor 2022
Yes but many say NOAA probably vastly underfunded (or was) as opposed to the "European model"...
It's still hitting Tampa. But I'm not sure which media outlet definitively said it would make landfall directly on Tampa. The other issue is that Tampa is where the population is and swells and flooding will cause as many issues there as in FT Myers as far as infrastructure. Sometimes the adjunct areas of a nuclear strike suffer worse than GLZ...
The "European Model" has traditionally outperformed the NOAA in forecasting and prediction. Though that may have changed a bit for the better in 2019 IIRC...
I might also add that NOAA often whiffs on forecasts whereas local forecasters are more in tune using not just NOAA but the EM as well. A good example was the Buffalo NY area 2014 November storm that dropped as much as 8' of snow on some (very localized) areas. IIRC NOAA kept underperforming whereas local forecasters using the EM pretty much were dead on with key early warnings.
But feel free to cite where the "media" (a big overgeneralization) said it was definitively hitting Tampa. Tampa is still close to the eye and will still suffer horrendous damage. You are just splitting hairs here...
Not sure what my state has to do with anything as much as any other state with a coastline, its just a matter if you choose to live on the coast or not. If you do choose the coast, guess what, than you are subject to coastal storms/hurricanes. Not a chance I ever will have a hurricane here but maybe next year when I move to the coast!
I'm saying you had no (or actually a little) skin in the game and come off as a pompous, trite know-it-all...
Jackson_Slugger
$50 Site Donor 2022
Lots of Twitter fakes with this storm featuring sharks swimming down the streets of FT Myers....
Wrong again, if anything I was relaying available information from official sources that was contrary to the media hype. Sorry if I bruised you ego and maybe really bruised it if you look at the chart I just posted in my last reply to you. Also as of 8PM tonight, Tampa has not had a hurricane, hurricane force gusts yes, but doesn't qualify as a hurricane, never mind the CAT 3 they were discussing yesterday.
As far as further south, god help them, it is going to be like a war zone 100+ miles south.
This conversation is ended, not helping the thread.
AS of 8PM tonight at Tampa International Airport =
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I dislike Florida in general, but St. Augustine is just too picturesque to dislike. I love that city. Spent a lot of time there in 1993 when I moved to Melrose with my parents temporarily. A jewel in that state
Jackson_Slugger
$50 Site Donor 2022
You were a part of the media hype of speculation like it or not. In any case this stuff sucks either way with people losing livelihoods and even their lives. I don't think we are that far apart here but this storm sucks for anyone on the left coast of FL..
No worries you can't...
Okay, as opposed to what other charts? You were "right" (I guess you really need that affirmation or something) but I don't think anyone definitely said where this was going until the last minutes. I just take issue with the overweening "media" stuff. What were they supposed to do? not report it?
With so much advanced warning, why do so many cars get left behind to get destroyed?
That used to happen on Long Island a lot. I don’t get it either but I don’t think people can comprehend the scope of things, denial that it can’t happen to them or the storm is going to hit someplace else and they don’t pay attention to the change of storm track or weather report.
Once salt water gets in that car, just like that the car gets totaled and some people don’t realize the insurance company does not buy you a new car they pay the used book value on the car, they do not replace it with money to buy a new one.
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People are clueless about preparing, plain and simple.
This society in general is not prepared for many things that are likely to happen in the future.
Sister in SRQ county, said power came back on
2 minutes later brightest light she ever saw outside
15 seconds later loudest bang she ever heard as transformer nearby blew.
I.said.dont expect.to have power for a good while after that, assuming replacing a transformer is far.more labor intensive than mending downed wires.
Daylight is.going.to.reveal a lot.of horror scapes in collier and lee. Counties.
My family dodged the bullett,
Many didnt.
2 minutes later brightest light she ever saw outside
15 seconds later loudest bang she ever heard as transformer nearby blew.
I.said.dont expect.to have power for a good while after that, assuming replacing a transformer is far.more labor intensive than mending downed wires.
Daylight is.going.to.reveal a lot.of horror scapes in collier and lee. Counties.
My family dodged the bullett,
Many didnt.
Very sad if this turns out to be true.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/lee-county-hurricane-ian-death-toll/2022/09/29/id/1089581/
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/lee-county-hurricane-ian-death-toll/2022/09/29/id/1089581/
This was my problem when some felt I was being "trite" and going off on a rant Tuesday Morning and early afternoon.
The "media" looking to create headlines, ad revenue did not help this because they were indicating the major impact would be the Tampa area> and they were slow to revise the "headlines"
Yet the NHC and NOAA was consistently indicating that the storm guidance was starting to move more east (which would indicate landfall more south of Tampa) throughout the day the NHC was moving the forecast track more east, at that time, they also indicated that this may mean landfall will take place before upper air shear could slow it down.
Only reason I am repeating this is, my wife pointed out to me, SOME people who lived in the Fort Myers area were asked the same question.
"Why didnt you get your cars out of there" Answer = because we thought it was going to farther up north.
Dont get me wrong, these people should have prepared or watched more closely but I am giving you one or two people who made the above statement.
I see what PimTac posted, sad if true and I say that because I think the media could have handled this better but maybe I am wrong about the media as I went to watching and keeping up to date from the actual NHC and NOAA gov websites and turned off the media, all I Know is at the start of all this, it made it sound like Tampa, well over 100 miles away was a sure hit and Tampa didnt even have what qualified as a hurricane, except for some gusts in the CAT 1 area.
Maybe many hundreds could have been saved if those Headlines on Tuesday were accurate and the media more responsible in their reporting.
(these are my feelings)
The death toll media coverage is entirely speculation at this point. Yes, it should be handled better.
One has to wonder if the media situation over the years creates a "cry wolf" scenario for those with insufficient critical thinking skills.
One has to wonder if the media situation over the years creates a "cry wolf" scenario for those with insufficient critical thinking skills.
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Tragic if true, but not too surprising. Everyone thought the hurricane was going to skirt 100+ miles North of them as of Tuesday and be a bit weaker when it made landfall. In less than 24 hours, that changed completely. People likely didn't plan to evacuate since they weren't expected to see more than tropical storm force winds and little surge. When it shifted course, it was too late to get out for many of them.
Plus there's likely many who simply couldn't afford to evacuate. They don't have family in Georgia or Alabama to bunker down with and/or shelters are already at capacity from Tampa area evacuees. What hotels are left are likely expensive. Between food, fuel, lodging, and other necessary costs, it can cost $1,000-$5,000 to evacuate. That's if the family has reliable transportation to do so. They have to just ride it out the best they can.
The eye is now back over warm water in the Atlantic. The 11 am report shows a slight drop in pressure and wind speed increased to 70 mph. Ian isn't done. He's strengthening again and likely will be a hurricane again before nightfall.
We're already starting to get some gusts here in central SC.
We're already starting to get some gusts here in central SC.
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