Home prices UP nearly 2% nationally…..once again frustrating crash predictors.

PandaBear said:
It is kind of wrong to build a model home that is different and not an option, not even disclosed. Is this something they can be sued for?
Click to expand...
I don't know but I doubt it. Meaning the model homes everywhere are loaded with options most know when seriously considering the homes the sales person will go through the list of what actually comes with the house. You then add in the "options" that you want. Even those tray ceilings in many rooms are options. All wall decorations and paint the same. They did tell my sister when the Shiplap came up that it doesnt come with the house. Whether or not sometimes that may slip through the cracks to a buyer I do not know.

I would think some people would consider it as part of the home since it's nailed into the walls. But again, a lot of the ceilings and moldings are too. Some of them options. Who knows maybe this is another trend in the housing industry, if so I think it will end up badly for the builders. But what do I know?

I do know my impression of them has turned from I really like their communities to a now negative feeling. They have an another grand community 4 miles or so away, that one is nearing completion. It's big and has a bit more larger homes too. The resale prices have gone through the roof over the last 3 years. Up 50% possibly more. Thing is with these newer communities, they make the amenities look grand, and they are nice. However it's a bit like smoke and mirrors with all the landscaping and decorating. You take that away and the amenities are not that grand. Sales is always about selling the "sizzle" and in today's world its engineering is down to a science.
This is their other community, nice model homes and they do not have the ShipLap in them, that you cant get in the other community *LOL*
https://www.bridgewatersc.com/
 
Last edited:
We printed trillions of dollars during covid and handed it out like wonka tickets to the wealthiest in our society. They bought furniture, cars, investment properties and vacation homes. The resulting inflation means your money is worth half as much as it was 6 years ago. We didn’t double the housing inventory over those 6 years. There are too many dollars chasing existing inventory.
 
SC Maintenance said:
1.9% annual gain when YoY core inflation is 3.1% means a 1.2% loss.

If you want to treat a home as an asset rather than a place to live you have to use proper measures.
Click to expand...
It's both. Ya gotta have a place to live, so the way I see it is, you pay your mortgage or someone else's.

Having a home, or 4, free and clear around here ain't a bad way to go.
 
JeffKeryk said:
It's both. Ya gotta have a place to live, so the way I see it is, you pay your mortgage or someone else's.

Having a home, or 4, free and clear around here ain't a bad way to go.
Click to expand...
I agree it can be either a place to live, or a asset like a rental property. But not really at the same time. No real benefit of your primary residence going up in value - just costs more insurance and taxes.

Either way tracking value pre inflation isn't accurate.
 
zzyzzx said:
https://fortune.com/2025/08/30/hous...g-home-prices-demand-inflation-trump-tariffs/

The housing market is no longer a wealth-building engine as home prices continue to slump​

Click to expand...
So, if one bought a $500k USD home in 2021 at 2.5 percent interest and 20 percent down, and has a monthly payment of $2k USD.

Their home today is worth 700k USD. If they rented instead of bought, their rent would be $3500 USD.

Lets look at the wealth building:
loss of interest on 100k USD savings 2021-2025: -$20k USD
Gain of reduction of principal on $400 k USD: $30k USD
Gain in assets appreciation: $200k USD
Gain in difference between owning and renting: $72k USD

Net gain/ loss by being a homeowner from 2021-2025: $282,000 USD gain, or if down payment is subtracted (shouldn't be) $182,000 USD gain.

The writers of the articles would never get hired by Warren Buffet.
 
GON said:
So, if one bought a $500k USD home in 2021 at 2.5 percent interest and 20 percent down, and has a monthly payment of $2k USD.

Their home today is worth 700k USD. If they rented instead of bought, their rent would be $3500 USD.

Lets look at the wealth building:
loss of interest on 100k USD savings 2021-2025: -$20k USD
Gain of reduction of principal on $400 k USD: $30k USD
Gain in assets appreciation: $200k USD
Gain in difference between owning and renting: $72k USD

Net gain/ loss by being a homeowner from 2021-2025: $282,000 USD gain, or if down payment is subtracted (shouldn't be) $182,000 USD gain.

The writers of the articles would never get hired by Warren Buffet.
Click to expand...
You have cherry picked your dates for absolute best return. You have ignored taxes, insurance, and transaction costs. You have also ignored inflation. Its like saying that instead of putting $100K down on the above house you should have bought bitcoin in 2021 at 32K, and now you would have $347,000. Or gold and you would now have almost $200K, with no carrying costs. Would have should have could have.

I am not trying to compare this as a home. If you need a place to live, go buy a house if your going to be there a while. Renting is foolish and its not about money. As a renter I have been told to get out - the owner wants to sell. No fun.

I am sure everyone would like to go back to 2021 (yellow highlight) and buy a bunch of houses, at low mortgage rates. Looking backwards is a fools errand.

However the best bet would have been to sell at peak in 2022 (red circle), because adjusted for inflation that peak still has not been re-achieved. However transacting a house is expensive, so that wouldn't have paid out either.

The question is only - is buying a house now, as in investment in capital, a good idea?

1756903548133.webp
 
SC Maintenance said:
You have cherry picked your dates for absolute best return. You have ignored taxes, insurance, and transaction costs. You have also ignored inflation. Its like saying that instead of putting $100K down on the above house you should have bought bitcoin in 2021 at 32K, and now you would have $347,000. Or gold and you would now have almost $200K, with no carrying costs. Would have should have could have.

I am not trying to compare this as a home. If you need a place to live, go buy a house if your going to be there a while. Renting is foolish and its not about money. As a renter I have been told to get out - the owner wants to sell. No fun.

I am sure everyone would like to go back to 2021 (yellow highlight) and buy a bunch of houses, at low mortgage rates. Looking backwards is a fools errand.

However the best bet would have been to sell at peak in 2022 (red circle), because adjusted for inflation that peak still has not been re-achieved. However transacting a house is expensive, so that wouldn't have paid out either.

The question is only - is buying a house now, as in investment in capital, a good idea?

View attachment 298632
Click to expand...
We closed on a home just 372 days ago. We purchased an interim home as a hedge against inflation. Our savings in the bank were not enough to protect our buying power from both a rise in home prices, and lack of quality homes for sale.

Looking over all the data, from near term to single family housing prices in the late 1970s through early 1980s, with single family home interest rates at over 12 percent, one thing was clear. Homes on a MACRO basis do not fall in price during tough economic times over the long haul. And we need a place to live.

Maybe the issue along with the printing of USD is peoples' production. When I was a kid, most every dad worked double shifts, Saturdays, second jobs. My Wife's late dad was a police officer for 37 years. Along with overtime, he delivered pizzas, did security on ships, and did private security for concerts. Maybe housing prices have not risen as much as we think when measured against production hours per worker per week. Somehow we think working up to 40 hours per week is enough to buy a home. It wasn't for most in the 1960s/1970s, etc.
 
GON said:
We closed on a home just 372 days ago. We purchased an interim home as a hedge against inflation. Our savings in the bank were not enough to protect our buying power from both a rise in home prices, and lack of quality homes for sale.

Looking over all the data, from near term to single family housing prices in the late 1970s through early 1980s, with single family home interest rates at over 12 percent, one thing was clear. Homes on a MACRO basis do not fall in price during tough economic times over the long haul. And we need a place to live.

Maybe the issue along with the printing of USD is peoples' production. When I was a kid, most every dad worked double shifts, Saturdays, second jobs. My Wife's late dad was a police officer for 37 years. Along with overtime, he delivered pizzas, did security on ships, and did private security for concerts. Maybe housing prices have not risen as much as we think when measured against production hours per worker per week. Somehow we think working up to 40 hours per week is enough to buy a home. It wasn't for most in the 1960s/1970s, etc.
Click to expand...
Lets take the need a place to live out of the equation. If you need a place to live, buy a house, have a family - enjoy. Life is short.

So, back to these articles that analyze things as an asset.

In the 1970's inflation was rampant. Housing went up 3X during that decade approximately, but inflation was 103%, so in real terms housing 1.5X. Pretty good. Stocks and bonds got hammered. Commodities, like oil, gold, copper, went up much, much more. In an inflationary environment you don't want to hold cash for sure, so anything other than cash or bonds is probably a good bet - physical things being best.

Same in 2010. Yes, housing is up 3X since 2010. But the stock market is up 6X.

As for past returns / future performance - the biggest difference I see vs all times in the past is we had growing populations and now we do not. With more people you should always have demand for housing. Look at countries like Canada with mass immigration policies - there housing prices are astronomical.

Will there be anyone around to buy all these houses in say 2030, or 2035? Hard to say, things change, but the current demographic data suggests not.
 
Arc said:
Selfishness and greed was never supposed to be a man's goal in life. We were designed to do good and help others.
Click to expand...
If who we vote into office is any indication of our values/morale (which it is), this statement is 💯 false.
alarmguy said:
Life has never been more easy in the USA
Click to expand...
True.
Stats have indicated that folks these days are far wealthier than they have ever been.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Arc
GON said:
Maybe housing prices have not risen as much as we think when measured against production hours per worker per week. Somehow we think working up to 40 hours per week is enough to buy a home. It wasn't for most in the 1960s/1970s, etc.
Click to expand...
I'll take this one on separately because its different I think. Women in the workforce in the 70/80's were much less. So most "households" were single breadwinners. My dad worked crazy hours / multiple jobs also. Mom did everything else - including handing him his full lunch box on the way out the door.

So I am sure two moderately incomed people could afford a house still - even today. Of course this leaves little time for a family - and most no longer want one. So is a house really needed? Maybe a 1000 square foot flat where someone else does the maintenance?

Again, its chicken and egg.
 
SC Maintenance said:
Will there be anyone around to buy all these houses in say 2030, or 2035? Hard to say, things change, but the current demographic data suggests not.
Click to expand...
I don't know- worthwhile question to look into.

OOA 15 years ago I read an article predicting housing price collapse in areas full of retired baby boomers, who are dying because if age. Places like Green Vally, AZ, Central Florida. Article stated nobody would want to live in these areas an no more baby boomers to replace the dying baby boomers.

What happened in these areas- housing prices rose significantly, and the average age of the homeowner in the areas has lowered. Green Valley, AZ is a great example. Non retired people are moving to Green Valley, AZ as a lower cost alternative to Tucson, AZ.

Would I buy a home at any price (if I planned on selling at a later time) in a state with a reduction in population, and a state with significant pension debt- absolutely not. Would I buy a home in the South, a state with a right to work, a state the exports things (such as wheat, cattle, aircraft, etc)-- absolutley.....
 
GON said:
I don't know- worthwhile question to look into.

OOA 15 years ago I read an article predicting housing price collapse in areas full of retired baby boomers, who are dying because if age. Places like Green Vally, AZ, Central Florida. Article stated nobody would want to live in these areas an no more baby boomers to replace the dying baby boomers.

What happened in these areas- housing prices rose significantly, and the average age of the homeowner in the areas has lowered. Green Valley, AZ is a great example. Non retired people are moving to Green Valley, AZ as a lower cost alternative to Tucson, AZ.

Would I buy a home at any price (if I planned on selling at a later time) in a state with a reduction in population, and a state with significant pension debt- absolutely not. Would I buy a home in the South, a state with a right to work, a state the exports things (such as wheat, cattle, aircraft, etc)-- absolutley.....
Click to expand...
Your likely right. All housing is local. Will Florida get an influx of young people to provide the needed services to their retirees, and then stay for the long term. Certainly could happen. Of course to the detriment of wherever they left. In which case you would want to be long Florida and short wherever they came from.

I would rather own a home than put my cash in a coffee can, almost anywhere. I do plan on buying another property - for the simple reason to ensure whatever happens my two children are not locked out of the market. Of course this is simply a hedge, and hedges tend to be costs, not profits. I am willing to pay these costs, but given current conditions I am in no rush.
 
SC Maintenance said:
I agree it can be either a place to live, or a asset like a rental property. But not really at the same time. No real benefit of your primary residence going up in value - just costs more insurance and taxes.

Either way tracking value pre inflation isn't accurate.
Click to expand...
We live in different places. I paid $330K (fixer upper) in the mid 90's and now our primary home is easily $2M. If you wanted to live on my street, rent would be close to $5K. My property taxes run $5K annually. Yes I had to do a lotta work to the place, but now I live dirt cheap. You would pay more to live in a studio apartment in a bad part of town.

Quite an investment. Must be the sunshine.
 
JeffKeryk said:
We live in different places. I paid $330K (fixer upper) in the mid 90's and now our primary home is easily $2M. If you wanted to live on my street, rent would be close to $5K. My property taxes run $5K annually. Yes I had to do a lotta work to the place, but now I live dirt cheap. You would pay more to live in a studio apartment in a bad part of town.

Quite an investment. Must be the sunshine.
Click to expand...
Does the house do more now that its worth 2M vs $330K?

If you were to sell your house would you be able to buy a place down the street for less? I doubt it.

I assume your $5K tax bill is due to homestead / tax cap. How much would tax bill be for a new owner. My guess - 1% so about $20K? How much has your home-owners insurance increased. Those are all part of the reason that rent is so much.

Also, $5K a month or $60K a year is super cheap for a rental under those conditions. Most landlords would lose money unless they had purchased years ago. Taxes and insurance by itself would eat up half that $60K. The remaining $30K means a 1.5% return on capital. T-bills still pay 4.33%.

So the fact your house is now $2M is sort of worthless to you, unless you plan to move to South Carolina . 🥳
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

GON
June 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report- from Realtor dot com
Replies
4
Views
287
CKN
GON
Updated observations on single family home market in South and Southwest USA
2
Replies
34
Views
1K
Cujet
A
Plug and Play Home Solar coming to the USA
2
Replies
25
Views
653
KrisZ
69GTX
Residential Real Estate Assessments - best actions when appearing before town Board of Appeals
2
Replies
24
Views
1K
SC Maintenance
shortyb
Adventures to the Gulf Coast
Replies
5
Views
287
shortyb
Back
Top Bottom