Heat Pump in Northern Climates?

Did you mean $0.35 per therm or $3.50 per therm. To convert therms to 1,000 ft you multiply by about 10. That would compute to $3.50 per 1000 ft3. Here is a screen shot showing the residential price of natural gas in North Dakota is at least $27.32 per 1000 ft3.

Sorry to bother you. I realize your project is all done and it’s a moot point, but as you can see your original thread has grown. I’m a supporter of heat pumps in northern climates when a person is about to buy a new AC unit anyway. Maybe in your next house! So, if you can clarify your natural gas cost it might help someone else. Thanks. :)

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My bill coming out of last winter was $0.35 per therm, but with the increase this year my latest bill I was charged $0.77/ therm. Meter reading taken in ccf is converted on the bill to therms and charged per therm.
 
Dont ask me what this means, all I know is to me, winter heat is cheap in our 3000 SqFt home built in 2006. Guess Im lucky, used to live in an oil heated much smaller home on Long Island, NY for most my life and in decades and decades I still do not pay more for energy since moving south in 2006, Gas or Electric to me is dirt cheap.

As previously stated we have Gas Hot Air on the Main Level, Heat Pump on the second. Since heat rises, its a perfect set up, we almost NEVER run the heat pump in the winter anymore on the second level now that the kids are off in their own place. Wife does ahve a second floor office and I too but I guess with the insulation we have, even in winter since heat rises its warmer up here then the main level. Heat Pump will go on in the most cold extreme weather where daytime highs may not get above freezing or above 40 degrees or if we have company sleeping over.
I never much paid attention to my gas bill like I do electric... so not really understanding it all except it seems cheap.

Here is a PDF of the main part of the heating season if it helps anyone or would love to hear some comments if someone understand it. I just dont see how it can get any less expensive. A good part of our home also has 16 foot ceilings on main level and roughly 22 Windows total. When house was first built I did have the builder send back the insulation company as they cheated on how much cellulose insulation was blown in. I also spent a week or more on my own in the attics fixing things up better/adding insulation/sealing open spaces in part of the attic..
AS you can see Jan 2020 was a very warm winter so Jan 2021 is more normal.

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Just for the heck of it, here is our electric bill for two of the coldest months (keep in mind the higher one also includes Christmas lights ect);
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Dont ask me what this means, all I know is to me, winter heat is cheap in our 3000 SqFt home built in 2006. Guess Im lucky, used to live in an oil heated much smaller home on Long Island, NY for most my life and in decades and decades I still do not pay more for energy since moving south in 2006, Gas or Electric to me is dirt cheap.

As previously stated we have Gas Hot Air on the Main Level, Heat Pump on the second. Since heat rises, its a perfect set up, we almost NEVER run the heat pump in the winter anymore on the second level now that the kids are off in their own place. Wife does ahve a second floor office and I too but I guess with the insulation we have, even in winter since heat rises its warmer up here then the main level. Heat Pump will go on in the most cold extreme weather where daytime highs may not get above freezing or above 40 degrees or if we have company sleeping over.
I never much paid attention to my gas bill like I do electric... so not really understanding it all except it seems cheap.

Here is a PDF of the main part of the heating season if it helps anyone or would love to hear some comments if someone understand it. I just dont see how it can get any less expensive. A good part of our home also has 16 foot ceilings on main level and roughly 22 Windows total. When house was first built I did have the builder send back the insulation company as they cheated on how much cellulose insulation was blown in. I also spent a week or more on my own in the attics fixing things up better/adding insulation/sealing open spaces in part of the attic..
AS you can see Jan 2020 was a very warm winter so Jan 2021 is more normal.

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Thanks, real good data, but could you go back through a typical bill and include the delivery costs and extras that are on a therm basis, or post your gas bill, just like you did the electric bill?
 
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One thing that may throw off the cost analysis - in MA they were offering a $500 rebate on energy efficient AC regardless of size but a $1250 per ton rebate on energy efficient heat pumps. $6250 in rebates is a huge savings.

Similar experience. One state dominant utility paid in full for 4 tons of Mitsubishi setup (I did my own installation and electrical) plus Mitsubishi threw in a bonus for the purchase.

We had also a variable speed full-house dual-compressor system and we retired it (still works but breaker is disconnected).

Our average summer utility bills dropped from just under $200/mo to an average of $120/mo and house was maintaned at 21 C year-round.

Up north above the Arctic Circle we are now in the process of testing the very latest Mitsubishi tech and their next-gen hyperheat systems which unlike previous setup are fully connected to ducting with ceiling and floor vents.

Thermal power max. 3.5 kW, which stays high even at low temperatures
Heat coefficient > 2 is excellent at -30 ° C (-22 for those not conversant in Celsius)
 
There is an effort by B.C. Hydro to place 30 heat pumps in the Columbia Valley. To qualify you had to have a propane furnace. If you are willing to give it up the HP is almost free. I don’t qualify because I already have one but I am helping a friend with the paper work.
 
Thanks, real good data, but could you go back through a typical bill and include the delivery costs and extras that are on a therm basis, or post your gas bill, just like you did the electric bill?
Thanks - I thought about posting the climate data but sometimes I spend too much time at this computer and not sure if anyone cares *LOL*

Ok, I found a way to post my two gas bills like I did the electric, let me know if this is what you were talking about, Jan bills. 2020 and 2021

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Thanks. Still sounds too low. What about all the add-ons divided by the number of therms. :)
Here you go...screenshot from my latest bill. The adjustment noted is a temporary charge for me through September of next year to account for the Texas freeze.
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Thanks - I thought about posting the climate data but sometimes I spend too much time at this computer and not sure if anyone cares *LOL*

Ok, I found a way to post my two gas bills like I did the electric, let me know if this is what you were talking about, Jan bills. 2020 and 2021

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You don’t have much for adds one and have a great price. Your $1.30 per Therm average is about $13/ 1000 cu ft. However natural gas prices have been climbing all year so get ready for some sticker shock this winter. :)

Here are present prices in $ per 1000 cu ft.

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You don’t have much for adds one and have a great price. Your $1.30 per Therm average is about $13/ 1000 cu ft. However natural gas prices have been climbing all year so get ready for some sticker shock this winter. :)

Here are present prices in $ per 1000 cu ft.

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NO, not at all, Natural Gas is actually lower this year then last. But either way I am not the least bit concerned.
Natural Gas Price is down 6% from Sept 2020
One thing for sure, SC is historically not low on Natural Gas prices at least according to the charts. But one must be careful how they read the information too. August is typically the highest price and then levels out for the winter.

An example of what you just posted is, it doesnt tell you our gas is lower then 2020, it only tells you it is 13% above the national average which means nothing to me except that means gas price is down so far this year. Either way, I will not be in for any sticker shock.
Im posting this photo from the same site you posted to me above.
SO you can see, I am pleasantly surprised that so far, I will be paying less for natural gas which I will be honest, never pay attention to the cost because always seems reasonable to me and around the same price every year. (keep in mind my state also is among the lowest taxed and lowest price gasoline in the country)

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BTW- enjoyed this thread, finally got to looking at my gas bill in my previously too busy to do life. *L*
 
NO, not at all, Natural Gas is actually lower this year then last. But either way I am not the least bit concerned.
Natural Gas Price is down 6% from Sept 2020
One thing for sure, SC is historically not low on Natural Gas prices at least according to the charts. But one must be careful how they read the information too. August is typically the highest price and then levels out for the winter.

An example of what you just posted is, it doesnt tell you our gas is lower then 2020, it only tells you it is 13% above the national average which means nothing to me except that means gas price is down so far this year. Either way, I will not be in for any sticker shock.
Im posting this photo from the same site you posted to me above.
SO you can see, I am pleasantly surprised that so far, I will be paying less for natural gas which I will be honest, never pay attention to the cost because always seems reasonable to me and around the same price every year. (keep in mind my state also is among the lowest taxed and lowest price gasoline in the country)

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BTW- enjoyed this thread, finally got to looking at my gas bill in my previously too busy to do life. *L*
Last year you paid about $13 per 1000 ft. The September average for South Carolina is already over $20 per 1000 cu ft. We can re group in the spring and see how you did, or maybe you have some long term contract?
 
Last year you paid about $13 per 1000 ft. The September average for South Carolina is already over $20 per 1000 cu ft. We can re group in the spring and see how you did, or maybe you have some long term contract?
Did you read the post above? I took this from the site you used.

It says "residential natural gas rate in Columbia decreased 6.6
percent, from $24.54 per thousand cubic feet in September 2020 to $22.92 per
thousand cubic feet in September 2021"
 
Did you read the post above? I took this from the site you used.

It says "residential natural gas rate in Columbia decreased 6.6
percent, from $24.54 per thousand cubic feet in September 2020 to $22.92 per
thousand cubic feet in September 2021"
Hmm, the conversion from therms to 1000 cu ft is about 10 to one. ( multiply therms by 10 to get 1000 cubic feet). You only paid $13 per 1000 cf for last year, not the $24.54 as in the chart. Any other thoughts on that ? I.e., are you party of any community plan that gets industrial prices? For instance, from the same website, the industrial price was $6.24 per thousand cf.
 
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Hmm, the conversion from therms to 1000 cu ft is about 10 to one. ( multiply therms by 10 to get 1000 cubic feet). You only paid $13 per 1000 cf for last year, not the $24.54 as in the chart. Any other thoughts on that ? I.e., are you party of any community plan that gets industrial prices? For instance, from the same website, the industrial price was $6.24 per thousand cf.
I’m waiting for your thoughts! I never paid much attention to natural gas bill but I am now, maybe if time one day I’ll look into it further, all I know are the bills I posted and the information I posted from the site that you posted. 🙃
(I’m actually at the eye doctor right now waiting for a new contact lens prescription. Literally in the chair waiting)

No we’re just in a regular residential community
 
Here's a quick laymans summary of the difference between AC and HP, and why they're not directly interchangeable ...

Quick explanation of the systems:
AC and Furnace combo: uses one system to cool and a different one to heat. The only common element is the blower in the furnace, as it has to move the air in the house for both cooling and heating. But the heat exchangers are separate units and completely isolated to their seasonal task. Typically in an upflow system the furnace sits below the indoor evap coil.
HP system: uses the outdoor compressor and coil in conjunction with the indoor coil for both heating and cooling; there is no separate heat exchanger for each season. The indoor unit has only one heat exchanger for both heating and cooling, and the blower again does all seasons.


First, you have to understand about heat loss and heat gain as it relates to the house. It is VERY important to think of it as a heating (or cooling) rate, and not only a capacity. It's not just "30,000 BTUs", but it needs to be understood as a load/time (ex: 30,000 BTUs/hr). The BTU loss per hour of your dwelling is based on construction items such as insualtion, shading of trees, number and quality of windows and doors, etc. A good HVAC tech will always do his own load-loss calculations based on many standardized tools in the HVAC industry. (pretty much anyone can estimate it with today's internet tools, but a good HVAC tech will do a better job than Joe Average).

Assumptions for the example:
temperate zone: average expected high of 85F in summer and low of 10F in winter
preferred indoor temp: 70F year round
Thefore the HVAC system must be capable of providing BTU/hr make up in summer with enough energy to satisfy the 15F max expected delta, and 60F max delta in winter. You don't choose a system based on capacity, you "size" a system to accomplish holding your desired setpoint against the expected max normal temps. The capacity isn't an input, it's a result of saying:
* If I want to hold a 15F delta in summer, I need XX,xxx BTUs per hour. (house loses 22k BTUs/hr; a 24k BTU cooling system will suffice with a small buffer of excess capacity)
* If I want to hold a 60F delta in winter, I need YY,yyy BTUs per hour. (house loses 68k BTUs/hr; a 75k BTU heat system will suffice with a buffer of excess capacity)
Your house has a smaller delta to overcome in summer versus winter; pretty typical for all of North America. The ratio (cooling to heating) may be different (FL versus ND), but the concept is the same. Heating loads are often larger than cooling loads for comfortable indoor living.

In the assumed example, using a traditional AC and Furnace system, the summer max expected load will be an average temp delta of 15F (85-70). If it's cooler than 85F outside, the AC will run intermittently as it can satisfy the load. If it's warmer outside than 85F, the house might rise inside above the 70F setpoint because the system cannot keep up with the cooling loss; in theory if it's 90F outside and you have capacity/hr for a 15 degF delta, then you'll get 75F inside despite your desire to have 70F. So in the warmer months, the system should be sized to overcome a thermal loss of X BTUs/hr up to the 15 deg F delta. The outdoor coil might be a 2.5-ton unit and the indoor coil will be similar. This is always adjusted a bit depending on humidity averages, etc. But overall, the AC indoor coil will be sized for that cooling load loss and a 15 degF delta. The furnace, on the other hand, will have to make up a 60 degF delta (70-10) at that same BTU/hr loss. So the furnace has to supply many more BTUs to overcome the loss rate. Whereas the indoor coil may have to provide up to 22k BTUs/hr, the furnace may have to provide 68k BTUs/hr. These are generalizations for the example, but you get the idea. Also, the condensing and evap processes move from side to side in HP whereas they are set in AC. With a HP system, you evaporate inside in summer, but you condense inside in winter. There are all kinds of nuances that are different between the two concepts and the application of different coils and their operational parameters.

Now, if you take away the furnace system and now decide you want a HP system, that indoor AC coil which only had to supply 22k BTUs/hr in summer, now has to supply 68k BTUs/hr in winter. Suddenly that smaller indoor cooling coil is not large enough to be an indoor heating coil. So in HP systems, the HP indoor coil is typically larger because it has to make up a larger delta-T loss.



Soooooooo ....
My point in the OPs quest is that he had already purchased a heating system based on a traditional Furnace/AC concept, and therefore the indoor coil is undersized for the heating need (especially in ND !!!). Add to that, we understand the fact that he now has made us aware that he had bought a new indoor coil along with the furnace. So if he wants to change to a HP concept after the fact, he not only is wasting the use of the furnace, but he also is going to have to toss out a brand new undersized indoor coil in favor of an indoor coil that is large enough to do heating in addition to cooling.
Now do your cost analysis. Yes, often electricity can be cheaper in a "per hour" use factor. But if you now throw in a furnce that won't be used much at all (wasted money spent) and a brand new indoor coil tossed in the trash (lots more wasted money spent), and the purchase of a larger indoor coil (more money spent), and the need to modify the ductwork for the new larger indoor coil ... welll ..... you get the picture now?????

If you want a dual-fuel or HP system, you have to commit to that concept up front. You cannot do it after the fact; you'll NEVER recoup the costs associated with modifying the systems in retrospect with the supposed "savings" of using a HP. When you toss thousands of dollars in the garbage because you bought a system that won't provide what you need, the ROI of the HP savings is urinated away very, very quickly.

- HP systems make excellent sense in warm and moderate temps (above 40F) as they are very efficient
- HP systems can work decently in cold temps (above 25F) as they are moderately efficient
- HP systems struggle in ever colder temps (below 25F). (Its not that they don't work; it's that they defrost often and use heat packs which are not nearly as efficient as the HP process; the colder it gets the more they defrost and the more they rely on the "kicker heat" aka toaster coils).
- HP systems will NEVER make sense when you try to bastardize a new Furnace/AC system into something it wasn't designed to be.

That's my take on it.

While all that makes sense to me conceptually, here's my observations for my HP:

1. In the summer the thermostat is set to 68F ( I know) which the HP can maintain up to about 96F before you see the inside temp start to creep up. Above 96F there is a 1:1 rise in the outdoor temp and indoor temp. Any outside temp over 85F and the HP runs pretty much all day cycling between stage 1 and stage 2 and below 85F it will still give nice 20-30 mins long runs but eventually it shut down. Internal humidity is 45-50% during the summer.

2. In the winter the thermostat is set to 64F ( I know) and with an outside temp of 25F my heat pump only needs to 10 mins to reach 64F once the thermostat calls for heat and it only comes on twice per hour. Now this 4 ton unit services the entire second floor and ⅔ of the first floor of a 3000 sqft house. There are 5 zones for the boiler, some of which will come on still on the first floor since the entire first floor isn't serviced by the HP and that certainly reduces some of the load on the HP but I'm using a fraction of the oil I normally use.

What I can't figure out is the delta in the summer is 28F and that requires the HP to run all day while the delta in the winter is 39F and that only requires the HP to 20 mins out of every 60 mins? The house does get full sun during the day and so I'm not sure if that's the difference but it definitely runs much less in the winter. There are no heat strips either.
 
I’m waiting for your thoughts! I never paid much attention to natural gas bill but I am now, maybe if time one day I’ll look into it further, all I know are the bills I posted and the information I posted from the site that you posted. 🙃
(I’m actually at the eye doctor right now waiting for a new contact lens prescription. Literally in the chair waiting)

No we’re just in a regular residential community
Enjoy your cheap natural gas! I can’t think of anything else other than that article was inaccurate. Does anyone else from SC want to share what they pay for natural gas? :)
 
While all that makes sense to me conceptually, here's my observations for my HP:

1. In the summer the thermostat is set to 68F ( I know) which the HP can maintain up to about 96F before you see the inside temp start to creep up. Above 96F there is a 1:1 rise in the outdoor temp and indoor temp. Any outside temp over 85F and the HP runs pretty much all day cycling between stage 1 and stage 2 and below 85F it will still give nice 20-30 mins long runs but eventually it shut down. Internal humidity is 45-50% during the summer.

2. In the winter the thermostat is set to 64F ( I know) and with an outside temp of 25F my heat pump only needs to 10 mins to reach 64F once the thermostat calls for heat and it only comes on twice per hour. Now this 4 ton unit services the entire second floor and ⅔ of the first floor of a 3000 sqft house. There are 5 zones for the boiler, some of which will come on still on the first floor since the entire first floor isn't serviced by the HP and that certainly reduces some of the load on the HP but I'm using a fraction of the oil I normally use.

What I can't figure out is the delta in the summer is 28F and that requires the HP to run all day while the delta in the winter is 39F and that only requires the HP to 20 mins out of every 60 mins? The house does get full sun during the day and so I'm not sure if that's the difference but it definitely runs much less in the winter. There are no heat strips either.
Solar loading does make a large difference. I have some unshaded west facing windows and when the sun lines up with them in the late afternoon my 3.5 ton unit is pretty much overwhelmed and I have to program my indoor temp to go up until sunset.
 
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