Goodbye to a French way of life?

[tyman]

Gas in Europe is below September 2021 prices.

It is now, yes. Mainly because of vastly decreased demand due to weather and switching sources, due to the war.

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/eu...the-record-fall-in-natural-gas-demand-in-2022

Power was the only sector in which gas demand rose above 2021 levels, with some of the notable changes caused by:

• Renewables, especially wind and solar. Thanks to ongoing policy support for renewables, around 50 GW of wind and solar was installed in the European Union in 2022, a record high. These additions avoided the need for around 11 bcm of natural gas in the power sector – the single largest structural driver of reduced natural gas demand.
• Nuclear and hydro. The sharp year-on-year declines in both nuclear and hydropower output pushed up demand for gas-fired power, leading to a small overall net increase in gas demand in the power sector.
• Lower electricity demand. EU electricity demand fell by around 3% in 2022. This meant that around 14 bcm of gas demand was avoided. Weather played a part in reducing electricity demand, even though higher summer temperatures and drought conditions drove up gas-fired power generation in parts of Europe.

The buildings sector, which comprises both households and public and commercial spaces, used 28 bcm less natural gas than in 2021, a drop of almost 20%:

• Weather effects. Heating Degree Days – a measure of how much energy is required to heat a building due to colder weather – across the European Union were 12% lower on average in 2022 than in 2021, lowering space heating requirements. There are different ways to attribute gas demand changes to weather effects, but this could explain up to 18 bcm of the drop in natural gas consumption in buildings.
• Behaviour and fuel switching. In a high-price environment, we estimate that behavioural changes, rising fuel poverty and fuel-switching in the residential and commercial sectors reduced natural gas demand in buildings by at least 7 bcm. Data from a sampling of smart thermostat providers suggests that consumers adjusted their thermostats lower by an average of around 0.6 °C. Such adjustments were, in part, a response to government-led campaigns to reduce energy demand (as per the IEA’s 10-Point Plan). Additional savings arose from efforts to reduce heating and hot water usage in commercial and public buildings. Fuel poverty was another factor: many vulnerable consumers reduced consumption because they could not afford the higher bills, leading to cold homes or a shift to cheaper and sometimes more polluting fuels such as wood pellets, charcoal, waste or low-quality fuel oil.
• Efficiency, including heat pumps. Improved energy performance of buildings, including efficiency retrofits as well as boiler replacements, are estimated to have reduced natural gas demand by around 3.5 bcm. These structural reductions in natural gas use during seasonal peaks will carry over into future years. Around 2.8 million heat pumps were installed over the course of 2022, accounting for around 1.4 bcm of savings. There were also efficiency gains in industry as well as in the power sector, where the efficiency of the gas-fired power plant fleet was marginally higher than in 2021.

In the industry sector gas use fell by 25 bcm, or around 25%:

• Production curtailment. Energy-intensive industries were the first to respond to gas price shocks in the European Union. Several plants reduced production, and in some cases imported finished products from outside the EU instead of manufacturing them domestically at higher cost. This reduced the need for around 13 bcm of natural gas, with the fertiliser industry accounting for nearly half of this volume. Some industries also reduced their gas needs by increasing imports of intermediate gas-intensive goods, enabling overall output of final products to remain largely unchanged. This explains why industrial production in gas-intensive sectors – such as fertilisers, steel and aluminium – fell on average by around 8% in 2022 in the EU, less than the corresponding reduction in their gas consumption.
• Fuel switching. We estimate that around 7 bcm of gas-to-oil switching occurred in the industrial sector.

Overall, all these factors together contributed to a 13% drop in natural gas demand in a single year. The largest reductions in percentage terms occurred in Northern and Northwest European EU member states, where gas use declined across industry, buildings and power. Some of these factors can be considered cyclical or temporary – such as price-sensitive fuel switching or weather effects. Others, such as renewable capacity additions, efficiency improvements and sales of heat pumps, are structural – laying the foundation for lasting reductions in gas demand. There are also less desirable structural changes, such as permanent closures of factories or businesses. In the middle are changes such as voluntary actions to reduce demand or import substitutions to manage higher prices, which may not endure if gas markets rebalance and prices revert to historical averages.

Despite this historic drop in demand, the EU’s gas import bill ran close to EUR 400 billion in 2022 – more than three times the level in 2021. Russia’s share of total EU natural gas demand fell from 40% in 2021 to below 10% by the end of 2022, but the sharp increase in prices nonetheless ensured significant income for Russia over the course of 2022. Gas prices have come off recent highs and, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance, natural gas revenues dropped by over 40% over the first two months of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022.

 

[Owen Lucas]

Peasants in Europe are getting rowdy. Of course the US media reports nothing.

If anyone knows how to protest, it's the French. Very telling how the media is directed just from what they omit. I could care less for a story about some homeless guy winning the lottery. I want to know why there is 9 million people in the streets of France with torches.

 

[Passport1]

Everything is just fine. Lots of media hype.

APRIL FOOLS


btw, this is a very good movie about life in a small French village.

 

[oilcandave]

If anyone knows how to protest, it's the French. Very telling how the media is directed just from what they omit. I could care less for a story about some homeless guy winning the lottery. I want to know why there is 9 million people in the streets of France with torches.

There is plenty of news about it here..issue is folx have too much time on their hands and not enough time spent helping those who need it. life is pretty easy these days depending on where ya live. I worked at fast food for 5 years to pay my way through college. Famous saying there was "the time to lean is the time to clean". Protest at the ballot box and spend the rest of empty time cleaning or helping others.

 

[wpod]

Korean conflict, Decades in Vietnam, the middle east. Afghanistan Somali etc. We are now paying all those costs back.

 

[edyvw]

It is now, yes. Mainly because of vastly decreased demand due to weather and switching sources, due to the war.

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/eu...the-record-fall-in-natural-gas-demand-in-2022

The winter was mileder than expected in Europe.
However, besides that, EU managed to have around 117% of reserves before winter.
The price was hiked up mainly bcs. fear and speculation. Once there was an understanding that there should not be fear, speculators kept misinformation, fear at elevated levels to keep profits going as much as possible. But, that is not the case anymore.

 

[edyvw]

If anyone knows how to protest, it's the French. Very telling how the media is directed just from what they omit. I could care less for a story about some homeless guy winning the lottery. I want to know why there is 9 million people in the streets of France with torches.

There are plenty of stories.

 

[tyman]

The winter was mileder than expected in Europe.
However, besides that, EU managed to have around 117% of reserves before winter.
The price was hiked up mainly bcs. fear and speculation. Once there was an understanding that there should not be fear, speculators kept misinformation, fear at elevated levels to keep profits going as much as possible. But, that is not the case anymore.

Aye. They’ve also had enough time to stabilize from Russias loss of gas. But again, quite a bit was due to also switching sources and compensating as well as low demand.

 

[edyvw]

Aye. They’ve also had enough time to stabilize from Russias loss of gas. But again, quite a bit was due to also switching sources and compensating as well as low demand.

Some. But the biggest issue around electricity is that many other countries in Europe cannot produce electricity in enough quantities. The problem ARE renewables. There is a dramatic push toward renewables but no one wants to talk hard truths: nothing is enough except nuclear.
French understand that. Problem? French pay a market price that is set up by the lack of supply in Europe.

 

[y_p_w]

France is the only Country in Europe I have been to where I have been treated like dirt, solely for being American. So I don't much care.

I do empathize with the other Europeans however.

I dunno. I worked with Europeans including many French. Some were total jerks, but others were polite and helpful. The ones who were polite and helpful said that most people in France aren't Parisians.

 

[vavavroom]

"When the global population is back below a billion people and all the peasants are living in caves and teepees, then everything will be perfect." ~Globalist Billionaires

But will the peasants and the homies get along?

 

[SeaJay]

Bakeries in the US seem to have gone the way of the do do bird. Some left, but have a hard time competing against the stuff sold in the bakery departments of the larger supermarkets.

 

[barryh]

France is something of a basket case at the moment with strikes and riots over a proposed pension age increase from 62 to 64 which would still the lowest in Europe. In the UK it's already 66. Some jobs in France have a retirement age of 52 for no good reason other than these retirement ages were set when life expectancy was very much lower. Rising state pension costs are bankrupting the country, but the people won't see reason - that's the French for you.

The energy price increases are real enough though. Private homes got very big subsidies but not so much business until recently. Prices will start to come down soon. It's no use looking at spot price graphs as the retail price to customers lags the spot price by 6 months, that's just the way the system works.

 

[y_p_w]

Bakeries in the US seem to have gone the way of the do do bird. Some left, but have a hard time competing against the stuff sold in the bakery departments of the larger supermarkets.

I still see a good deal of bakeries - even small ones. But they tend to charge high prices. And the supermarkets around here sell artisan bread and other baked goods from some of the specialty bakers.

 

[hemioiler]

Everything is just fine. Lots of media hype.

APRIL FOOLS


btw, this is a very good movie about life in a small French village.

That trailer gave me diabetes. Don't recommend. 2/10.

 

[simple_gifts]

Life of the party response. Not sure what "have it all" actually means but earth suer has provided it and will continue to do so. Despite 50 + years of the UN stating we are all gonna be dead within a decade as well as Al Gore and John Kerry telling us the same while laying down a carbon footprint that contradicts their comments.

Ad hominem attacks aside, it is really not a political position, but a sustainability one. Bees are now being trucked state to state; not an indication of a biome under stress? Okaaaaay.

 

[tyman]

Some. But the biggest issue around electricity is that many other countries in Europe cannot produce electricity in enough quantities. The problem ARE renewables. There is a dramatic push toward renewables but no one wants to talk hard truths: nothing is enough except nuclear.
French understand that. Problem? French pay a market price that is set up by the lack of supply in Europe.

Yup

 

[BISCUT]

Ad hominem attacks aside, it is really not a political position, but a sustainability one. Bees are now being trucked state to state; not an indication of a biome under stress? Okaaaaay.

My commentary was directed at the "can't-do" tenor of your post and the position that the planet cannot supply "it all." Doesn't fit ad hominem attack victimization sought. Still not sure what "it all" means? Definition?

Climate change is undeniably political. How do you recon Patrick Moore's commentary? The guy who was a co-founder of GreenPeace....Hanging off whaling boats off Japan when the cause was "real" matters to me. Quote from Moore:

Patrick Moore, one of the founders of Greenpeace, said in an email obtained by The Epoch Times that his reasons for leaving Greenpeace were very clear: “Greenpeace was ‘hijacked’ by the political left when they realized there was money and power in the environmental movement. [Left-leaning] political activists in North America and Europe changed Greenpeace from a science-based organization to a political fundraising organization,” Moore said.

If climate change were not political there wouldn't be such a stifling of nuclear energy. Nuke generated electricity, when done correctly, is a legitimate way to displace fossil fuels. Ant-fracking sentiment but child slave labor in a cobalt mine is softly brushed aside and not addressed. All that reaks of politics.