Gallium Supply Chains

[buster]

I see RE as a major concern. I'm surprised at the lack of urgency I sense from higher ups. They did say solutions are available, but will be costly and need dedicated policy.

"The critical mineral gallium, which is crucial to defense industry supply chains and new energy technologies, has been at the front line of China’s strategy. To date, China’s chokehold on rare earth metals has attracted more attention than its restrictions on gallium, and some have downplayed the potential consequences of disruptions to gallium supply chains.

As the impacts of these controls hit global markets, examining the case of gallium—a little-known but crucial metal—offers a powerful warning signal. China has a near-total monopoly over gallium production, accounting for a startling 98 percent of the world’s primary supply."

Key findings:

• China’s gallium export controls have incrementally tightened in response to expanding U.S. technology restrictions. Its measures have ratcheted up from licensing requirements and end-user controls to a total export ban targeting the United States.
• Global dependence on Chinese primary gallium is now causing a gallium supply crunch that may soon impact key production lines as firms draw down their stockpiles.
• China’s most recent round of export controls on gallium extraction technologies could impede U.S. and allied efforts to quickly develop economically competitive alternative supply sources.
• Market forces alone are unlikely to solve the problem. Targeted government investment will be critical to breaking China’s gallium monopoly and undercutting its geopolitical leverage.

"The extent to which China can derive leverage from its monopoly over gallium production fundamentally depends on how fast alternative supply sources can come online. If plants outside of China can rapidly begin or restart gallium extraction, then China’s ability to threaten global supply chains will quickly diminish. While promising initiatives are underway to establish new gallium production capabilities, decisive government action is needed to ensure these efforts are protected from China’s market manipulation."

Source - CSIS
Full article is on Center for Strategic & International Studies site.

 

[Rmay635703]

Yep, mentioned this 3+ months ago and last year during the hoarding phase.

There was lots of “activity” trying to outsource further down the hill but based on what I saw we don’t have legitimate and guaranteed sourcing for at least 4 of the rare earths.

The lack of priority is being covered up by all the preorders, chaos and manufacturing downturns / sales downturns making it so we need less because nothing is being produced or sold.

Loss of capability, reliability and availability will become a real terror once we burn through our hoard and try to turn production back on for certain products.

Lots of shortages loom in the consumer space unless deals are made as production is 5-10 years away.

 

[TiGeo]

One of my clients/projects they have (I'm a geologist):

https://brazilianrareearths.com/?page_id=993

 

[Pablo]

One of my clients/projects they have (I'm a geologist):

https://brazilianrareearths.com/?page_id=993

I was gonna chime in.

Not sure where the the hyperlink is in @buster post but I always thought Gallium came from Al refining (Bauxite ore). Years and years ago I worked in some interesting semiconductor plants (GaAs and others like HgCdTe)

Point being, sure China is trying to be but the are not the only Ga supplier in the world.

 

[TiGeo]

I was gonna chime in.

Not sure where the the hyperlink is in @buster post but I always thought Gallium came from Al refining (Bauxite ore). Years and years ago I worked in some interesting semiconductor plants (GaAs and others like HgCdTe)

Point being, sure China is trying to be but the are not the only Ga supplier in the world.

There's plenty of Gallium outside China..just hasn't been an economic reason to bring the projects online when China supplied it cheaply is the long/shorts of it. Just like REEs.

 

[JHZR2]

SiC still isn’t fully deployed, but on the heels of that will be GaN for wbg power switching devices. It’s being watched. Most of the market is probably small chargers from China currently, not high current devices.

 

[Jetronic]

One of my clients/projects they have (I'm a geologist):

https://brazilianrareearths.com/?page_id=993

Brazil isn't very happy with the US right now, so wouldn't count on their output.

 

[Hohn]

I won’t be too much longer that whatever mineral wealth China has will belong to someone else as the country implodes.

 

[Pablo]

Brazil isn't very happy with the US right now, so wouldn't count on their output.

Oh they will trade with the USA

Most people have zero idea how many trade barriers and tariffs Brazil has had for YEARS. Croc tears and our phony baloney press.

 

[Jetronic]

Oh they will trade with the USA

Most people have zero idea how many trade barriers and tariffs Brazil has had for YEARS. Croc tears and our phony baloney press.

who processes/refines the gallium? does it go to china for that, like a lot of rare earths?

there's little profit in it anyway, they might not. especially since it's politically sensitive.

 

[y_p_w]

Strangely enough, I remember the late 90s Dukes of Hazzard reunion movie had a plot involving gallium arsenide deposits being discovered. Sounded pretty silly. I have an electrical engineering background and knew that gallium arsenide isn’t found naturally. It has to be made in laboratory conditions. I guess someone heard about GaAs and thought it sounded like something that could be a plot point.

 

[Rmay635703]

Oh they will trade with the USA

Most people have zero idea how many trade barriers and tariffs Brazil has had for YEARS. Croc tears and our phony baloney press.

Brazil can give us raw gallium which also is of no help since the us consumes components with rare earths and minimal raw.

We are a good 35 years separated from when we used primarily raw materials of any kind, and from what I can tell we have minimal ability to process and fab the raw earths into the things we want them in.

 

[Pablo]

Brazil can give us raw gallium which also is of no help since the us consumes components with rare earths and minimal raw.

We are a good 35 years separated from when we used primarily raw materials of any kind.

True enough, but that doesn't mean given enough demand it will take 35 years to establish refining.

Some of this lays at the feet of the sentiments similar to anti-nuclear power, NIMBY-ness. I mean I get it. Pay me now or pay me later, with very different currencies.

 

[y_p_w]

True enough, but that doesn't mean given enough demand it will take 35 years to establish refining.

Some of this lays at the feet of the sentiments similar to anti-nuclear power, NIMBY-ness. I mean I get it. Pay me now or pay me later, with very different currencies.

One of the reasons why so much of this happens elsewhere is China's willingness to deal with the pollution. Or perhaps just ignore it. Australia has that issue too, but then again they have large swaths of land where very few people live, which is unlike China.

 

[y_p_w]

Brazil can give us raw gallium which also is of no help since the us consumes components with rare earths and minimal raw.

We are a good 35 years separated from when we used primarily raw materials of any kind, and from what I can tell we have minimal ability to process and fab the raw earths into the things we want them in.

There's gallium in the US, but whether or not existing mining operations try to recover it is another matter. Others have noted that it's just a byproduct. But the technology to recover it isn't some big secret that would take decades to figure out.

Certainly a lot of this has been farmed out to China because they have less hesitation when it comes what they put into their environment. Kind of sad in a way, but it is what it is.

 

[Owen Lucas]

One of the reasons why so much of this happens elsewhere is China's willingness to deal with the pollution. Or perhaps just ignore it.

Not caring about the pollution is a major competitive advantage, besides having a poverty class of people that make less than $200 a month.

These people, some of which are slaves or have no idea about toxic substances and are basically disposable by the state.

I believe that this cost undercutting is a Chicom tactic, it's about undercutting Western production and making them reliant on Chinese products, which allows some level of control.

https://www.dw.com/en/toxic-and-radioactive-the-damage-from-mining-rare-elements/a-57148185

 

[y_p_w]

Not caring about the pollution is a major competitive advantage, besides having a poverty class of people that make less than $200 a month.

These people, some of which are slaves or have no idea about toxic substances and are basically disposable by the state.

I believe that this cost undercutting is a Chicom tactic, it's about undercutting Western production and making them reliant on Chinese products, which allows some level of control.

https://www.dw.com/en/toxic-and-radioactive-the-damage-from-mining-rare-elements/a-57148185

To some degree they're putting up with less of this sort of environemental mess. Like severely reducing acceptance of recyclables such as plastics and cardboard. The strange thing about it was that a fair deal of those were just going into landfills, but American companies were sending them as "recyclables".

But I can't see their mining operations stopping any time soon. Especially if it's not anywhere near their major cities (especially the coastal areas) where an increasingly more sophisticated public won't stand for it. But there are plenty of people living near those parts of China where the mining is going on.