Ford Considering Scrapping Lightning

[fsdork]

What exactly is “its place”? Being a $90k tow vehicle to move your 3-person pop-up trailer to the other side of the campground after you tow it there with your gas truck, and then put it back on the charger?

Some EVs can make better sense than an ICE for certain use cases and users, especially when that’s confined to a single metro area. Replacing a half-ton truck that’s used for actual half-ton truck stuff over a large geographical anrea isn’t an area where EVs are competitive yet.

Perpetuating uncompetitive models simply blocks the way for the necessity of more innovation.

I think you might be overestimating the "used for half-ton truck stuff". I would suggest a lot of half-tons carry sailboat fuel while being used as a commuter/grocery getter the vast majority of the time. If my use-case didn't include towing a trailer several hours away to go camping, my F-150 could easily be replaced by a Lightning. It would still work just fine for the occasional Home Depot run.

With that said, perhaps there isn't a lot of overlap in the Venn diagram of:
1) People who are inclined to use a half-ton as a runabout
2) People who see value in driving an EV

 

[Kira]

It's too bad electric vehicles weren't simply regarded as usable alternatives to "other powered" vehicles.
Instead they were painted as a panacea for the world's painful energy calculations. They just had to be marketed in a big way.

MANY test fleets all over the country/world could have provided solid use and recharging data. An aggressive fielding of targeted experimental zones could've throttled back the rush on battery assembly lines.
The efficiencies and inefficiencies would've revealed themselves.

Instead the industries needed to get many big wheels turning before knowing the shortfalls.

 

[E365]

Don’t forget, Ford’s all-new, lower-cost EV platform comes very soon and starts first with a (smaller) pickup.


https://insideevs.com/news/777855/ford-30000-usd-pickup-testing-component-sourcing/

 

[E365]

The Lightning did not qualify for the tax credit, right?

Wait for it... "Wait till the big boys get in!"

“Just wait until Tesla builds a pickup, they’ll take over the industry!”

 

[JeffKeryk]

“Just wait until Tesla builds a pickup, they’ll take over the industry!”

Who said that?
I believe the Lightning's problem was it was too expensive and a pickups aren't the best candidates for electric drivetrains. Perhaps one day?

I give Ford credit for at least reporting their EV business results; everyone else buries them in the ICE numbers.

 

[SeaJay]

Seems really short sighted of them if they truly do cut it. We all know its not the right vehicle for all applications but it definitely has it's place.

Management asked itself how long should they sell these vehicles at a loss so that its place can be found. They must have estimated that the resulting losses in the foreseeable future were not worth it.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Who said that?

Elon Musk. Actually.

FWIW I like Elon. No one is right all the time.

 

[shortyb]

Don’t forget, Ford’s all-new, lower-cost EV platform comes very soon and starts first with a (smaller) pickup.


https://insideevs.com/news/777855/ford-30000-usd-pickup-testing-component-sourcing/

A Maverick sized EV truck with a $30K price tag could definitely sell. Just like the ICE Maverick did with it's once upon a time $25K MSRP.

 

[E365]

Who said that?

Tesla themselves, essentially. They said 375,000 Cybertrucks annually, which would have made it one of the best selling vehicles in the entire USA. This was part of the nearly 2M orders they claimed.

They also claimed their global sales will grow at 50% compounded annually. That means they need to be around 3.8M total sales for 2025 and 5.8M in 2026 to stay on track for that and meet the 20M units sold claim for 2030. 20M units in a year would make them the largest automaker in the world. This claim also will put them past Toyota as early as 2028 (just 3 years away)

Ironically, Tesla is missing their EV sales targets more than any claims from “the big boys”.

I’d argue poking fun at Tesla’s missed sales targets is just as valid as poking fun at legacy’s missed targets, no?

 

[zzyzzx]

Don’t forget, Ford’s all-new, lower-cost EV platform comes very soon and starts first with a (smaller) pickup.
https://insideevs.com/news/777855/ford-30000-usd-pickup-testing-component-sourcing/

This came across to me as Ford doubling down on it's failed EV strategy.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Tesla themselves, essentially. They said 375,000 Cybertrucks annually, which would have made it one of the best selling vehicles in the entire USA. This was part of the nearly 2M orders they claimed.

They also claimed their global sales will grow at 50% compounded annually. That means they need to be around 3.8M total sales for 2025 and 5.8M in 2026 to stay on track for that and meet the 20M units sold claim for 2030. 20M units in a year would make them the largest automaker in the world.

Ironically, Tesla is missing their EV sales targets more than any claims from “the big boys”.

I’d argue poking fun at Tesla’s missed sales targets is just as valid as poking fun at legacy’s missed targets, no?

I'm arguing against everyone stating, "Wait till the big boys get in."
Of course car companies tout their products; that's their job. FYI I never did understand the CT; Musk was too full of himself.

The new car market has softened overall; inventories are growing.

 

[JeffKeryk]

This came across to me as Ford doubling down on it's failed EV strategy.

Companies always need to reassess their product strategy. I wish Ford well.

 

[alarmguy]

The Lightning did not qualify for the tax credit, right?

Wait for it... "Wait till the big boys get in!"

Did you forget already!?!?! THE Tesla pick up truck lost far and away more money 10s of billions more? Then the Ford EV pick up truck ever did. Never mind the Ford pick up truck still continues to be a big seller in the gasoline version and Fords pick up truck line is very profitable, How is the Tesla pickups doing?

Ford sold 10,000 EV pick ups in the 3rd quarter this year and sold 197,000 gasoline versions for a large net profit
Tesla sold 5,385 pick ups at a massive loss in the 3rd quarter

 

[E365]

This came across to me as Ford doubling down on it's failed EV strategy.

It sounds like this will be much cheaper to build and will sell at a much lower MSRP.

 

[SC Maintenance]

I'm arguing against everyone stating, "Wait till the big boys get in."
Of course car companies tout their products; that's their job. FYI I never did understand the CT; Musk was too full of himself.

The new car market has softened overall; inventories are growing.

I could argue the "big boys" have not really gotten in yet. Biggest being Toyota. Not sure they ever will. All the euro companies are in, and seem to be doing quite well against Tesla in Eurozone, VW is biggest EV supplier in Europe now I believe. I think there wise to wait this one out offshore based on current geopolitical situations. This is a different discussion however.

As for lightning / cyber truck - this is really easy to understand. Ford Family owns 2% of Ford shares, but control 40% of the voting rights through there special "class B shares". So you can totally imagine the Ford family, who are now socialites not industrialists, were embarrassed at some cocktail party and demanded competition for Tesla. So we get Mach e. Elon having equally fragile ego said - you come after performance Tesla, I go after F150 business.

So in totally to be expected fashion, a bunch of ego's destroy a bunch of shareholder value building products normal people have no interest in. Its called "out of touch".

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

I think you might be overestimating the "used for half-ton truck stuff". I would suggest a lot of half-tons carry sailboat fuel while being used as a commuter/grocery getter the vast majority of the time. If my use-case didn't include towing a trailer several hours away to go camping, my F-150 could easily be replaced by a Lightning. It would still work just fine for the occasional Home Depot run.

With that said, perhaps there isn't a lot of overlap in the Venn diagram of:
1) People who are inclined to use a half-ton as a runabout
2) People who see value in driving an EV

I agree with your Venn, and I didn’t mean people who buy a truck for prestige or overblown egos. I did mean people who actually do truck stuff, like 1500lbs in the bed 5-6 times per week, or pulling a 6-8k lb trailer and pulling it from New England out to the Grand Canyon. That’s not the correct target demographic for Lightning.

 

[SubieRubyRoo]

It sounds like this will be much cheaper to build and will sell at a much lower MSRP.

If Ford did a full-EV Maverick crew cab, make it pull 3500lbs and still have a range of 150+ miles towing, and maybe 400-500 miles with only a cab full of people, that would be a MUCH more sensible application and actually be quite compelling. Yes, it would still weigh 2.5+ tons, but you’d be giving people 85% of what they want a truck for with very little of the inherent downsides of trying to use an EV as a working vehicle.

 

[SC Maintenance]

A Maverick sized EV truck with a $30K price tag could definitely sell. Just like the ICE Maverick did with it's once upon a time $25K MSRP.

Purely from observation it appears all the car companies would much rather sell one $60K auto than three $30K auto's.

We have fallen a long ways from Henry's "you can have any color you want so long as its black" days.

 

[SC Maintenance]

If Ford did a full-EV Maverick crew cab, make it pull 3500lbs and still have a range of 150+ miles towing, and maybe 400-500 miles with only a cab full of people, that would be a MUCH more sensible application and actually be quite compelling. Yes, it would still weigh 2.5+ tons, but you’d be giving people 85% of what they want a truck for with very little of the inherent downsides of trying to use an EV as a working vehicle.

I don't think truck people will ever buy an EV truck. Its just not in there evoked set. This coming from growing up around people that made there living every day out of the back of a pickup truck. None of the supposed benefits of an EV truck are of interest. Truck people don't mind gas stations - they probably will go there for other things anyway. They don't worry much about getting more mileage - they may complain but in reality its the cost of doing business. If they need to go 600 miles in a day, they can in a ICE truck version. Does it happen often - likely not - but understanding the need to get a job done no matter what is a compelling argument against EV pickups.

So that leaves everyone else that uses a truck, and it seemingly did not sell to them either.

Mercedes bought Chrysler to figure out American's like cup-holders. The EV expenditures seem mild by comparison.

 

[shortyb]

Purely from observation it appears all the car companies would much rather sell one $60K auto than three $30K auto's.

We have fallen a long ways from Henry's "you can have any color you want so long as its black" days.

And herein lies the problem with car sales these days and being "out of touch". How many Mavs did Ford sell when it first came out and MSRP was ~$25K? Every one they could build and then some. How many are they selling now at $35-$45K? I dare say a whole lot less. Did they get $10K more expensive to build? Uh, no. Just greed. And the sheeplike obliviousness of buyers that pay for it.

I think most manufacturers would want to get as many EVs in the hands of folks that may have never considered one, or wanted one for whatever reason, especially if they believe this is the future direction of vehicular travel. Can't think of a better way than to offer a good solid, basic vehicle along the lines of a smaller pick-up that is reasonably priced, NOT nearing $100K. Maybe thats just me.