In case some of ya'll didn't know, the TSP board passed a new rule saying you are only allowed two transactions per month now. I was wondering when that was going to take into affect. I am currently 100% I fund and has done quite well up to about a week or two ago. Hoping it comes up a little, currently at 11% and then I'm jumping the ship. Going 100% G fund for a while. Just too much bad news out there and this week is an onslaught of economic news coming out and I just don't see where any of it will be good. The only thing that perked up the market Friday was that there were a ton of people shopping. To me, that's good, but what is the real reason? Everybody is broke and trying to save a buck or two. I don't think it would will have any bearing whatsoever on the future of the consumer or the economy. What's your plan?
Federal TSP program. Changes and what are you in?
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What is TSP program?
Can I assume you are talking about some type of work savings plan, like a 401K (pretax income, tax deferred)?
I picture you as a young feller. Get the money in some good stock funds along with international funds...and maybe a small amount in a high quality income fund. Jumping long term savings around can work, but it can hurt as well.
Bad "news" for good companies can present buying opportunities, not time for selling. If you are not pleased with a fund or fund management/under performance vs. peers, get out. But if your retirement is 20+ years out, the main goal is get as much money into the account as fast as possible, not trying to time 1 day, 1 month, 1 year or even 5 year cycles. IMHO.
I picture you as a young feller. Get the money in some good stock funds along with international funds...and maybe a small amount in a high quality income fund. Jumping long term savings around can work, but it can hurt as well.
Bad "news" for good companies can present buying opportunities, not time for selling. If you are not pleased with a fund or fund management/under performance vs. peers, get out. But if your retirement is 20+ years out, the main goal is get as much money into the account as fast as possible, not trying to time 1 day, 1 month, 1 year or even 5 year cycles. IMHO.
If you're young, I would keep your money mostly in the high risk/high return fund and keep the rest in a more risk averse fund (sorry, don't know the ins and outs of the various funds in the federal thrift savings plan). Then, make it somehow impossible to touch the money!
Listen to Pablo, just keep pumping money into the sucker. Trying to time the market with mutual funds IS A LOSING PROPOSITION for the average "schmoe". The market's down several % the last couple weeks. If you get out now, you've locked that in and Murphy's law says the market will be back up in the coming months. So when do you get back in, after a week long rally? It's a sure fire way to sell low and buy high during high volatility periods.
If you have time, ride it out!
Listen to Pablo, just keep pumping money into the sucker. Trying to time the market with mutual funds IS A LOSING PROPOSITION for the average "schmoe". The market's down several % the last couple weeks. If you get out now, you've locked that in and Murphy's law says the market will be back up in the coming months. So when do you get back in, after a week long rally? It's a sure fire way to sell low and buy high during high volatility periods.
If you have time, ride it out!
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Think it concerns this program http://www.uscg.mil/hq/cgpc/cpm/benfts/bentsp.htm
Thrift Savings Plan, a federal 401(k) if you will. Well, I'm 44, don't know if that qualifies me as a "young" fellow. Looking for retirement in about 18 years, already got 17 in. Trying to match my fathers total of 35 years, but then he passed away 6 months later so I don't know..........
I hear and appreciate your comments and I do "do" that, but this time, there is a lot more problems than in the past. We've never had a Ja-billion housing market problem, the dollar has never been weaker, OPEC is going to go Euro and dump the dollar, seems like everybody on the planet hates us, no real strong potential presidential candidate emerging on the scene, oil will be 100 bucks a barrel, recession is now the new buzz word...it's all doom and gloom, I tell you!!!!!
That is the reasoning behind my thinking. Someone talk me out of it here in the next 20 minutes or I'm jumping ship....(1100 EST is the deadline for changing funds to be incorporated the next business day)
I hear and appreciate your comments and I do "do" that, but this time, there is a lot more problems than in the past. We've never had a Ja-billion housing market problem, the dollar has never been weaker, OPEC is going to go Euro and dump the dollar, seems like everybody on the planet hates us, no real strong potential presidential candidate emerging on the scene, oil will be 100 bucks a barrel, recession is now the new buzz word...it's all doom and gloom, I tell you!!!!!
That is the reasoning behind my thinking. Someone talk me out of it here in the next 20 minutes or I'm jumping ship....(1100 EST is the deadline for changing funds to be incorporated the next business day)
JHZR2
Staff member
I am in TSP as well. For the information of others, it is the government's equivalent of a 401k, where you put in money pre-tax, the governemt matches to some extent, and you have five low-cost index funds to invest in, as well as some lifecycle funds.
The problem was that people were actively trading their TSP funds. I know of many people that did just that. Doing so effects the costs, etc. of the funds, and the key is to keep the funds costs low, as right now the expenses are as low as any other index funds out there (our funds are run by barclay bank, and have expenses in the
The problem with the TSP, or any 401k type program to my knowledge, is that you can't really buy in at a moment's notice on dips the way you can in a personal trading account. Maybe some have it different... As a result, it is very tough to time things properly when there are business day time lags to make moves.
Now, you are in perhaps an inferior position, as though you have done well being 100% in the international funds, you lack diversification. You may want to re-think this, as buying into the large cap growth companies via the C fund may do well moving forward. Time will tell... But I would merely diversify and adjust your buying pattern/allotments to always buy into the areas that are the best deals (IMO, the C fund right now).
Trying to adjust to keep profits, unless done right at the verge of a major bear market, is a loosing game. There have been many studies done in the short and long term that found that it is extrremely unprofitable to be out of the market on the 5 best days of the year, decade, century, etc., whereas to be out of the market on the 5 worst days had a smaller effect.
Believe it as you wish, there is likely some truth and some ways to have a better strategy... it is on everyone themselves to figure it out for themselves. However, overall, given the relative lack of agility to buy/sell funds in the TSP (regardless of howmany transactions were allowed at any time), you are best off adjusting for growth, and buying into cheap sectors, IMO.
Good luck,
JMH
The problem was that people were actively trading their TSP funds. I know of many people that did just that. Doing so effects the costs, etc. of the funds, and the key is to keep the funds costs low, as right now the expenses are as low as any other index funds out there (our funds are run by barclay bank, and have expenses in the
The problem with the TSP, or any 401k type program to my knowledge, is that you can't really buy in at a moment's notice on dips the way you can in a personal trading account. Maybe some have it different... As a result, it is very tough to time things properly when there are business day time lags to make moves.
Now, you are in perhaps an inferior position, as though you have done well being 100% in the international funds, you lack diversification. You may want to re-think this, as buying into the large cap growth companies via the C fund may do well moving forward. Time will tell... But I would merely diversify and adjust your buying pattern/allotments to always buy into the areas that are the best deals (IMO, the C fund right now).
Trying to adjust to keep profits, unless done right at the verge of a major bear market, is a loosing game. There have been many studies done in the short and long term that found that it is extrremely unprofitable to be out of the market on the 5 best days of the year, decade, century, etc., whereas to be out of the market on the 5 worst days had a smaller effect.
Believe it as you wish, there is likely some truth and some ways to have a better strategy... it is on everyone themselves to figure it out for themselves. However, overall, given the relative lack of agility to buy/sell funds in the TSP (regardless of howmany transactions were allowed at any time), you are best off adjusting for growth, and buying into cheap sectors, IMO.
Good luck,
JMH
JHZR2
Staff member
all of that said, taking profits on SOME of your principle is not a bad idea, per se, and assuming that you get back into an aggressive position and rebalance ASAP.
JMH
JMH
Dude, don't just bail out!!! Do you have a CPA or a financial adviser that could objectively run some numbers based on how much is in your account, how much return you could reasonably get over the next 18 years, etc, etc, etc? That would be the best thing to do. G O D whatever you do don't cash out of the plan, you'll likely take a 10% hit right off the top. Can you roll it over into a private account at a brokerage, like Fidelity, where there is eons more fund choices that will have higher return and less risk?
Man, if only the Roth 401K was introduced 17 years ago!!!
Man, if only the Roth 401K was introduced 17 years ago!!!
Hmmm, good points. If I do anything right now, I'm jumping to G fund.
What I mean is that I'll transfer the money, about 180K, into a secure fund for a while that's paying out 4.36% currently, just checked and also all funds are down again except for the bond market.
What I mean is that I'll transfer the money, about 180K, into a secure fund for a while that's paying out 4.36% currently, just checked and also all funds are down again except for the bond market.
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I hope you didn't cash out! Yesterday and today are exactly why, if you have at least 10 years, just let it sit.
The market is like the weather.....well sorta.... but wait 10 minutes, it will change!
You really should diversify a bit at 44. But you have some time. The other thing I will add it, MAX THAT HUMMER OUT!!!! I don't care if it hurts for a year or two....you will be thanking me at 54.
Will you get a government pension as well?
You really should diversify a bit at 44. But you have some time. The other thing I will add it, MAX THAT HUMMER OUT!!!! I don't care if it hurts for a year or two....you will be thanking me at 54.
Will you get a government pension as well?
Official site appears to be http://www.tsp.gov
Looks like a lower priced version of Vanguard index funds. Nice deal if you can get it.
You folks who have done so well in the foreign funds, it's largely because of the devaluing of the US dollar relative to foreign currencies. If/when it turns the other way, it will magnify the losses.
Looks like a lower priced version of Vanguard index funds. Nice deal if you can get it.
You folks who have done so well in the foreign funds, it's largely because of the devaluing of the US dollar relative to foreign currencies. If/when it turns the other way, it will magnify the losses.
Originally Posted By: TallPaul
You folks who have done so well in the foreign funds, it's largely because of the devaluing of the US dollar relative to foreign currencies. If/when it turns the other way, it will magnify the losses.
Largely? If you define largely as mostly, you would be wrong. The growth in some countries, and foreign companies has largely outstripped the inverse of the falling dollar. No doubt the devalued dollar has helped some funds who hold assets in countries whose currency has appreciated vs. the USA dollar. But don't forget a lot of foreign companies take dollars (borrowed or not)….. Anyway your second point is, sure, when the dollar slowly comes inching back it would appear that funds who hold assets in countries whose currency is depreciating against the dollar would be, well, worth less at any given snapshot in time. But remember these companies will be more happy to have these dollars…..
If economics were that simple we would all be rich…..oh wait a minute….
You folks who have done so well in the foreign funds, it's largely because of the devaluing of the US dollar relative to foreign currencies. If/when it turns the other way, it will magnify the losses.
Largely? If you define largely as mostly, you would be wrong. The growth in some countries, and foreign companies has largely outstripped the inverse of the falling dollar. No doubt the devalued dollar has helped some funds who hold assets in countries whose currency has appreciated vs. the USA dollar. But don't forget a lot of foreign companies take dollars (borrowed or not)….. Anyway your second point is, sure, when the dollar slowly comes inching back it would appear that funds who hold assets in countries whose currency is depreciating against the dollar would be, well, worth less at any given snapshot in time. But remember these companies will be more happy to have these dollars…..
If economics were that simple we would all be rich…..oh wait a minute….
Originally Posted By: Schmoe
Hmmm, good points. If I do anything right now, I'm jumping to G fund.
What I mean is that I'll transfer the money, about 180K, into a secure fund for a while that's paying out 4.36% currently, just checked and also all funds are down again except for the bond market.
Take a good look at the Life Cycle funds in TSP. They strike a balance between various funds based on your planned retirement year.
If you aren't going to make a career of financial planning, a balanced fund can be the way to go. Then just pour all the money you can into it and don't mess with it until you retire.
Most investors do worse than that by messing around with their investments. You have to be really dedicated and good to beat the market, or lucky. The average investor is none of those three.
Hmmm, good points. If I do anything right now, I'm jumping to G fund.
What I mean is that I'll transfer the money, about 180K, into a secure fund for a while that's paying out 4.36% currently, just checked and also all funds are down again except for the bond market.
Take a good look at the Life Cycle funds in TSP. They strike a balance between various funds based on your planned retirement year.
If you aren't going to make a career of financial planning, a balanced fund can be the way to go. Then just pour all the money you can into it and don't mess with it until you retire.
Most investors do worse than that by messing around with their investments. You have to be really dedicated and good to beat the market, or lucky. The average investor is none of those three.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
Largely? If you define largely as mostly, you would be wrong.
Well I should have qualified to say "the excess over domestic funds would be largely....." however, that is probably too simplistic also as many US companies have large foreign investments too.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
If economics were that simple we would all be rich…..oh wait a minute….
Economics of investing is very simple: buy low, sell high.
Now if we could consistently apply that little bit of wisdom, we'd all be rich.
Did you ever consider that being an Amsoil rep is not quite the best fit for you? Perhaps you should do investment advisement? I might benefit if you were to review my portfolio.
Largely? If you define largely as mostly, you would be wrong.
Well I should have qualified to say "the excess over domestic funds would be largely....." however, that is probably too simplistic also as many US companies have large foreign investments too.
Originally Posted By: Pablo
If economics were that simple we would all be rich…..oh wait a minute….
Economics of investing is very simple: buy low, sell high.
Did you ever consider that being an Amsoil rep is not quite the best fit for you? Perhaps you should do investment advisement? I might benefit if you were to review my portfolio.
The L cycle funds are relatively new and nowhere near the payoff as the I funds have been. Hence the risk in my wisdom. At some point, I know I'll need to get out before retiring as to not lose it all. However, I don't know when that point will be. Thought a couple of days ago, it was then, but looky, looky here, taking off like a Hornet on a carrier.
I will have a government pension, just not a good as the "old" system and hopefully social security will be alive and kicking so I can get three checks.
I will have a government pension, just not a good as the "old" system and hopefully social security will be alive and kicking so I can get three checks.
I hope SS is still around when I retire! I've paid into that foul system my entire life!!
My income when I retire:
1) Amsoil
2) IRA (series of 401K rollovers)- interest only!
3) Social security
4) Small pension
5) Put the wife to work and I can loaf at home
My income when I retire:
1) Amsoil
2) IRA (series of 401K rollovers)- interest only!
3) Social security
4) Small pension
5) Put the wife to work and I can loaf at home
Wife already told me, when I retire, she retires, even though I got ten years on her in the work force and she's 7 years younger than I. I figure by then, she'll WANT to go to work to get away from me when I officially turn "old geezer."
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