Engineering Explained not happy with new Lucid Air

[97prizm]

Lucid Air Sapphire is a joke. A fast car that can only be used for 4.1 miles? Sounds like major design compromises. From car and driver:

The battery gets too hot before the carbon-ceramic brakes do—the latter weren't bled or touched over three days of lapping. A 4.1-mile lap in Hot Lap mode uses about 25 percent of the battery and puts enough heat into the motors and pack that the Sapphire is only good for one fast lap at a time.

The Tesla model S plaid isn't any better after several updates. The brakes catch fire and it was only good for a lap or so before it goes into limp mode.

 

[fdcg27]

Start ups pretty much always lose money and survive on venture capitalists, etc. Tesla would likely have never been around if it weren't for the seed money from Toyota. One of the 1st products was the original RAV4 EV; my neighbors had one.

I am not sure if you are familiar with the importance of market capitalization. A corporation's primary responsibility is to its share holders.
Market cap is a key indicator of a company's total value on the open market and gives insight into how the investing public perceives its future value. If you don't think every other car company would love to have Tesla's market cap then perhaps consider doing some studying on the topic. It's a big deal.

Has Tesla lost market share? Sure. As more companies introduce competing products, the company with the most sales gets a smaller slice of the pie. All the other companies do.

I'm not sure how much market cap really means with a stock as volatile as Tesla has been.
April 21 2025 TSLA closed at $214.42. Less than six months later, October 2 2025, the stock closed at $469.64.
Does anyone want to seriously argue that the value of Tesla as an enterprise somehow more than doubled over that period? This would have been a great play for a small investor like me. Too bad I didn't join the game.
The poster to whom you replied had a valid point in that any significant sell volume would have a drastic impact on the vale of the stock. Not you and I, but really large holders, like Elon.

 

[JeffKeryk]

I'm not sure how much market cap really means with a stock as volatile as Tesla has been.
April 21 2025 TSLA closed at $214.42. Less than six months later, October 2 2025, the stock closed at $469.64.
Does anyone want to seriously argue that the value of Tesla as an enterprise somehow more than doubled over that period? This would have been a great play for a small investor like me. Too bad I didn't join the game.
The poster to whom you replied had a valid point in that any significant sell volume would have a drastic impact on the vale of the stock. Not you and I, but really large holders, like Elon.

The stock market is a forward looking entity. As you and @97prizm point out, GM dwarfs Tesla, and most car companies, from a production and revenue standpoint. But not from a margin standpoint and not from a futures standpoint. According to market cap anyways.

Tech is a roller coaster, no doubt. Probably not the best investment for the short term investor. But IMO, if you wanna make money, tech needs to be in your portfolio for the long term. If TSLA dropped 50% I would still double my investment, at least. Now, if I had bought TSLA instead of the 2018 Model 3 in Dec 2018, I would have gained close to 20x. Sometimes you get lucky, I guess.

Look at the market cap list; tech dominates. That's the numbers. I am a long term investor; tech for the win.
Oh yeah, Elon is worth about $350B, so even if he dropped 50% I am not gonna be concerned for him. You know he is odds on to be the world's first trillionaire, right?

 

[fdcg27]

Look at the market cap list; tech dominates. That's the numbers. I am a long term investor; tech for the win.

The tech stock numbers are more distinguished by their volatility than the profitability of the companies involved.
Volatility is a money making machine for large investors, so you'll see what I think are disproportionate values in these stocks. This is accompanied with often inexplicably high P/Es.
Higher highs and lower lows as compared to most other non-speculative stocks.

 

[JeffKeryk]

The tech stock numbers are more distinguished by their volatility than the profitability of the companies involved.
Volatility is a money making machine for large investors, so you'll see what I think are disproportionate values in these stocks. This is accompanied with often inexplicably high P/Es.
Higher highs and lower lows as compared to most other non-speculative stocks.

Strike a liner regression line over time and then tell me what you think. This is the benefit of long term.

 

[Vercingetorix]

It’s reverse musical chairs. Instead of one person losing, most lose and the few at the top come out winners when it’s time to sell. Then come the lawsuits and court cases and arrests.

 

[97prizm]

It’s reverse musical chairs. Instead of one person losing, most lose and the few at the top come out winners when it’s time to sell. Then come the lawsuits and court cases and arrests.

With how much Elon promises and the guarantees he should be arrested, and sent back to South Africa. This week Musk says that you can now text and drive with the newest update. THIS IS ILLEGAL yet he still spouts off and encourages illegal behavior. Only Montana doesn't have a state law against texting and driving but the majority of cities and counties do.

 

[Ws6]

Stick with legacy manufacturers if you want a good car. Tesla if you want a cheap car. Lucid, vinfast, Rivian, etc if you want something to solidify victim status.

 

[GON]

Lucid owner is a NOGO in critical thinking.

What the Lucid owner should have done:

Ditch the Wife-- keep the Tesla...

 

[Torrid]

I finally got a chance to watch Fenske's video. Yikes. I really like Lucid, but there's no way I'd buy one after seeing that even if it was in my price range. I'd just take the Model S Plaid instead.

 

[Brons2]

Sometimes you have to make a stand. What happened to his wife wasn't business but we can't discuss it. Wonder what he'll buy next?

It's not really relevant to the thread, because while he wanted to buy something other than Tesla, he had many options other than Lucid.

 

[jghall00]

It's not really relevant to the thread, because while he wanted to buy something other than Tesla, he had many options other than Lucid.

I think he went with Lucid for the same reason I've been watching the brand and evaluating a purchase: the level of engineering employed to maximize efficiency is at the top of the field. The low aero drag profile, the ultra-compact powertrain, the space utilization...they're tops amongst EVs. As an engineer, he probably appreciated that effort and wanted to experience how it impacted real-world use of the vehicle. Notably, nearly all of the issues he experienced were related to software. But software is a very important part of how people engage with vehicles these days. I can't count the number of people I've seen complain about Carplay missing from GM's EV infotainment. Why? Because Carplay works and they've come to rely on it. Hopefully Lucid can resolve the issues that he experienced. It's possible some of them have already been addressed, but his software update failed repeatedly. GM dealerships are notorious for sending out cars with software versions. They just don't have an incentive to do the updates proactively.

 

[Brons2]

I think he went with Lucid for the same reason I've been watching the brand and evaluating a purchase: the level of engineering employed to maximize efficiency is at the top of the field. The low aero drag profile, the ultra-compact powertrain, the space utilization...they're tops amongst EVs. As an engineer, he probably appreciated that effort and wanted to experience how it impacted real-world use of the vehicle. Notably, nearly all of the issues he experienced were related to software. But software is a very important part of how people engage with vehicles these days. I can't count the number of people I've seen complain about Carplay missing from GM's EV infotainment. Why? Because Carplay works and they've come to rely on it. Hopefully Lucid can resolve the issues that he experienced. It's possible some of them have already been addressed, but his software update failed repeatedly. GM dealerships are notorious for sending out cars with software versions. They just don't have an incentive to do the updates proactively.

I can respect this, however, for me, I'm going to wait for the technology to trickle down to something more affordable.

 

[UncleDave]

You are taking a point in time. You are only counting car sales numbers, not results from those operations.
You understand VW loses $$ on their EV business, right?
The more EVs VW sells, the less money they make.

One would think a storied company like VW could deliver a profitable EV, especially given the economies of scale as sales have increased. The snotty nosed Tesla kid is killing VW; it is worth 25x from a market cap perspective.

Let's read the YTD VW Financials. Numbers are down YOY.
My biggest concern is the reduction in R&D expenditures. But don't take my word for it...
This does not bode well for the future. New products, factory upgrades, etc. are the lifeblood of any manufacturing company. From the EV perspective, this is even more so because EVs are in relative infancy as mass produced vehicles.

Last I looked VW lost about 7.5 Billion on CARIAD. Turns out writing electric car code is harder than they thought.

They ended up going to and investing in Rivian for help with the stack.

I wonder how many EVs they will have to sell at almost no profit or a loss to recover from this failed endeavor?

 

[Torrid]

I can respect this, however, for me, I'm going to wait for the technology to trickle down to something more affordable.

This. I can say though as much as people talk negatively about Tesla in comparison to how good a product Lucid is, the Tesla just works. It just drove me to and from lunch today in the next town over while my Spotify flawlessly played me music. I can't remember the last glitch I had with either Tesla that has negatively affected using the product. I had some phone key issues a couple of years ago with our Model 3, but that's the last I can remember. As far as I can say at this point the product net improves my user experience. That's not what I get from Jason Fenske with Lucid. It's hard to hear as a fan of the brand, but the price is beyond what I would spend anyway.

 

[Torrid]

Last I looked VW lost about 7.5 Billion on CARIAD. Turns out writing electric car code is harder than they thought.

They ended up going to and investing in Rivian for help with the stack.

I wonder how many EVs they will have to sell at almost no profit or a loss to recover from this failed endeavor?

VW sucks at EVs unfortunately and I love the brand. It's one of the last options I'd pick for an EV. I'd pick Ford over VW for an EV. As far as I'm concerned it's Tesla > Hyundai/KIA > Rivian > Polestar > Ford > Lucid > Chevrolet/GM > Everything else.

 

[jghall00]

I can respect this, however, for me, I'm going to wait for the technology to trickle down to something more affordable.

Lucid's mid-size platform is supposed to start around 50K. That's the price I paid for my Blazer EV last year. If Lucid can hit that price target without the credit and fix their software issues, it will likely be a home run. My Blazer has the 103 kWh battery and isn't particularly efficient, so I'm very curious to see what Lucid can do with a slightly more compact platform.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Lucid's mid-size platform is supposed to start around 50K. That's the price I paid for my Blazer EV last year. If Lucid can hit that price target without the credit and fix their software issues, it will likely be a home run. My Blazer has the 103 kWh battery and isn't particularly efficient, so I'm very curious to see what Lucid can do with a slightly more compact platform.

It might be impossible for Lucid to deliver a profitable vehicle for $50K; their economies of scale, factories, etc just cannot sustain that price. Plus, software is critical for future vehicles. Get codin' guys!

 

[JeffKeryk]

Last I looked VW lost about 7.5 Billion on CARIAD. Turns out writing electric car code is harder than they thought.

They ended up going to and investing in Rivian for help with the stack.

I wonder how many EVs they will have to sell at almost no profit or a loss to recover from this failed endeavor?

Yep, and not just true for cars.
Interestingly, I met with then Tesla CIO Jay Vijayan on their custom manufacturing production software. Microsoft set up the meeting in Redmond; they warned me I would be offered a job but to not take it. "Elon is a slave driver."

I gave them my recommendations and architecture on a SQL/VB/C++ app with interface to SAP and other subsystems.
Tesla Warp Drive. I haven't spoke with Jay in a few years. Oh yeah, Elon hates SAP, so we have something in common.

 

[UncleDave]

It might be impossible for Lucid to deliver a profitable vehicle for $50K; their economies of scale, factories, etc just cannot sustain that price. Plus, software is critical for future vehicles. Get codin' guys!

80K seems to be the floor for these guys right now.