Does anyone know how long we will have crude oil?

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Originally Posted By: GMBoy
Can somebody educate me on why there is so much dislike for coal? We have plenty of it and I thought it was much cleaner today then ever before?


No dislike for coal here in any way, shape or form, but consider the following.

US has 340,000MW of coal (some of the plants are nearly 100 years old, although the median looks more like mid 50s through early 80s). Assuming that they run at an average 75% capacity factor, and efficiencies typical of the era, they will consume around 2.6 Million Tonnes of coal per day.

That's a volume of 1 mile squared, 3'4" deep that has to be mined and burned every day. (1 mile squared, 1,200 feet high per year), and will produce approximately 1 mile squared, x 300 feet deep of ash per annum.

If the coal is open cut, it often involves moving 2-3 times that volume of earth to be moved. If it's underground, only50% of the coal will be dug, leaving the other 50% lost forever, and the hills around the mine will drop typically 3-4' as the mine passes under.

Like I said, I'm no coal anti, and it's a great way of making electricity out of a localised, intractible fuel.

I'm no fan of shifting transport to coal fired electricity, and loathe the concept of burning natural gas to make electricity too.

As an aside, Oz electricity prices are now 25c/KWHr, plus 62c/day for grid connection. People in my town are once again resorting to burning coal in open fireplaces, and it's nasty.
 
Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: Smokescreen
I have talked to people in the oil industry that were told to go check on wells that had dried up decades ago as as part of an assessment, only to find that there was oil again.


Take a sponge, soak it until it's dripping, lightly squeeze it, then leave it sit...it will still make a pool of water.

It doesn't mean the water fairy has MADE more water and injected it into the sponge.


As an ex Mobil employee, I remember hearing the brass talking about this very thing, 25 years ago. Back then, there was a theory that oil populated ancient shell beds or sandy soils easily. But, that sometimes the oil was actually formed elsewhere and simply flowed into suitable locations.

Then we started drilling down nearly 5 miles. And guess what, we found huge quantities of oil, even in locations where it was predicted that no life existed. I have no idea what the real situation is. However, I do know that there was vigorous debate as to the biological origin of oil. Abiogenic therory was valid only if you discounted the biological markers in the oil. But, of course, the oil remained in bacteria laden shell beds for millions of years...
 
There's certainly abiogenic oil, but how fast it's produced is the question...are we at, ahead, or behind in extraction rate.

Coal certainly demonstrates that there was enough plant matter to do it (unless you believe that it's plant matter soaked in abiotic oil (as some do))
 
Originally Posted By: GMBoy
Can somebody educate me on why there is so much dislike for coal? We have plenty of it and I thought it was much cleaner today then ever before?

Thanks.


From Sciencedaily.com:

Air pollution from smoke and various chemicals kills 3 million people a year. In the United States alone about 3 million tons of toxic chemicals are released into the environment -- contributing to cancer, birth defects, immune system defects and many other serious health problems.
 
I know how much oil is left... But I'm not telling.
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Originally Posted By: Shannow
Coal certainly demonstrates that there was enough plant matter to do it (unless you believe that it's plant matter soaked in abiotic oil (as some do))


That's an interesting point, and I've often thought of that. There are huge quantities of coal in the Eastern US. There are also stunningly large quantities of "shale oil" in the Western US. All seemingly of biological origin.

A theory is that early in Earth's life history, certain types of simple life were incredibly prolific. Much like a pond clogged with algae. The entire oceans were literally clogged with life, which died out suddenly, sinking to the bottom. This cycle produced sufficient biological mass to produce oil.
 
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
I know how much oil is left... But I'm not telling.


This is exactly what Saudis are doing. Yet, they are investing heavily in solar energy. Why would they do that? Hmmm...
 
Originally Posted By: Bluestream
Originally Posted By: GMBoy
Can somebody educate me on why there is so much dislike for coal? We have plenty of it and I thought it was much cleaner today then ever before?

Thanks.


From Sciencedaily.com:

Air pollution from smoke and various chemicals kills 3 million people a year. In the United States alone about 3 million tons of toxic chemicals are released into the environment -- contributing to cancer, birth defects, immune system defects and many other serious health problems.


Maybe a contributing factor to the high medical cost of health care in this country...and the industrial diet which lacks toxin cleansing from natural food. It didn't happen over night..but a problem I'm sure our government knew about it.
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
I know how much oil is left... But I'm not telling.


This is exactly what Saudis are doing. Yet, they are investing heavily in solar energy. Why would they do that? Hmmm...


They are in the desert, sunlight has got to be their #1 resource!
 
Originally Posted By: Mamala Bay
Originally Posted By: Bluestream
Originally Posted By: GMBoy
Can somebody educate me on why there is so much dislike for coal? We have plenty of it and I thought it was much cleaner today then ever before?

Thanks.


From Sciencedaily.com:

Air pollution from smoke and various chemicals kills 3 million people a year. In the United States alone about 3 million tons of toxic chemicals are released into the environment -- contributing to cancer, birth defects, immune system defects and many other serious health problems.


Maybe a contributing factor to the high medical cost of health care in this country...and the industrial diet which lacks toxin cleansing from natural food. It didn't happen over night..but a problem I'm sure our government knew about it.


I am sorry to be the one telling you this. We are going to die someday.
 
Originally Posted By: needsducktape
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Originally Posted By: KrisZ
I know how much oil is left... But I'm not telling.


This is exactly what Saudis are doing. Yet, they are investing heavily in solar energy. Why would they do that? Hmmm...


They are in the desert, sunlight has got to be their #1 resource!


Lots of countries have deserts (like US) and yet don't care about solar energy. Somehow the super oil rich country does. Besides smarter than us, they know something that they are not telling.
 
Originally Posted By: Smokescreen
I have talked to people in the oil industry that were told to go check on wells that had dried up decades ago as as part of an assessment, only to find that there was oil again. As many have said the supply isn't really the concern, evolving technology and better ways to burn it will outpace it...hopefully.


So what if there is oil there again? Again, it is the kinetics of formation and transfer into accessible spaces. If we use more/faster than it refills, its still a problem.
 
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
Lots of countries have deserts (like US) and yet don't care about solar energy. Somehow the super oil rich country does. Besides smarter than us, they know something that they are not telling.


Yup, if it only cost you $20 a barrel to pump it out of the ground and convert it to electricity at $30 / barrel equivalent. Why spend $60 / barrel equivalent for solar. Now if you have to buy the oil at $80 / barrel to convert it to electricity, then $60 / barrel would make some sense.

The point is, every area has different cost structure and what make sense for Australia (i.e. Shannow said the power plant he works/worked for has a very low coal cost because it is on the coal deposit) is not going to be the same as Saudi (oil is cheap but coal is not) or Iceland (geothermal is free but oil or coal is not).
 
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