Does anyone know how long we will have crude oil?

[needsducktape]

Hello BITOG !

Just started thinking about oil and curious to know if there are any realistic estimates of when the crude oil supplies will run out?!

I remember reading a few articles about ten years ago where they were estimating 40-50 years

Just curious to know if anyone has read any scientific data on the subject.

 

[Rick in PA]

My humble opinion, we'll never run out. It will just keep getting more and more expensive and we'll burn less and less of it for fuel. As a fuel, it will end up used where no other will do, for example airplanes. And it will be used as feedstock for products such as lubricants, plastics, etc.

 

[dave1251]

Once the core of the planet uses its fuel.

 

[hattaresguy]

Couple hundred years maybe. Than we can start burning the hundreds of years of natural gas we have.

Oil is not going to "run out", its just going to increase in cost and other alternatives are going to make more sense at some point.

 

[LoneRanger]

Originally Posted By: dave1251
Once the core of the planet uses its fuel.


Sounds like a vote for the abiotic theory.

 

[Cutehumor]

when we run out of oil, armageddon will be happening when China has to attack the middle east to get the oil. just my theory.

.

 

[FirstNissan]

I think that there is enough oil to last for a hundred-200 years more. BUT, the price is going to help innovate new greener fuel sources that are far cheaper to produce and more enviromentaly responsible.

 

[JHZR2]

The estimates for peak oil have always been varied and it is of course too large of a problem to really solve it onesself without being lucky.

Its a matter really of that it will happen. That's all you can say.

Why? Because there is zero evidence that even if crude IS renewable, that the kinetics of its formation are fast enough to support its renewal. If it was that fast and prevalent, wells wouldnt dry up.

So you are kinetically limited no matter what. Its not a matter of opinion, faith, environmental savvy or anything else, just good old chemical reaction rates (and that's assuming that there is any practical natural synthesis).

Beyond that, even if synthesis occurs, it has to occur in a practical spot. If you can't access, what good is it? But then again, there are a ton of other sources of energy, namely coal, NG and methane hydrates under the sea.

So there is a lot to the "oil" argument, it isnt the cut and dry thing that those on either side of the polarizing line claim.

IMO the best bet is to be a good steward of all that you are given, regardless of what happens.

 

[Vikas]

Once they perfect the match box size cold fusion reactor, there will be no need for oil. Pomm & Fleishmen are working at it.

 

[friendly_jacek]

Originally Posted By: Rick in PA
My humble opinion, we'll never run out. It will just keep getting more and more expensive and we'll burn less and less of it for fuel. As a fuel, it will end up used where no other will do, for example airplanes. And it will be used as feedstock for products such as lubricants, plastics, etc.

This is the correct answer. To add more, we have no more than 10-15 years of affordable oil left, if you assume $100 oil is really affordable for the economy. Every time oil went over $100 in the last 3 years, global economy decelerated sharply. So, you could have cheap oil OR healthy economy, but not both at the same time.

The good news is there is enough coal for over 100 years.

 

[Kiwi_ME]

Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
The good news is there is enough coal for over 100 years.
That's good news?

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
The good news is there is enough coal for over 100 years.


Don't forget simple mathematics...

with economic growth at 3%, we double consumption every 20 years...so in the next 20 years, we will use more "stuff" than all of history before us.

In 20 years, that "100 years" becomes 50 years, and you've already used 20 of them, so there's only 20 years left, which you will use in 15.

In perpetual growth mode,there is no such thing as sustainability, and no way to turn the juggernaut around onto a "renewable" platform, when the current energy minute by minute consumption is worth all of pre-history.

Humans can't even understand compound interest, let alone exponential growth.

As to coal, there's lots, lots more than you say...and if we use it all, we are history, full stop.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: FirstNissan
I think that there is enough oil to last for a hundred-200 years more.


Don't forget the exponential

 

[Mr_Incredible]

We are only a pandemic away from a return to serfdom. Smoke 'em while you got 'em.

 

[JHZR2]

Originally Posted By: Shannow
Originally Posted By: friendly_jacek
The good news is there is enough coal for over 100 years.


Don't forget simple mathematics...

with economic growth at 3%, we double consumption every 20 years...so in the next 20 years, we will use more "stuff" than all of history before us.

In 20 years, that "100 years" becomes 50 years, and you've already used 20 of them, so there's only 20 years left, which you will use in 15.

In perpetual growth mode,there is no such thing as sustainability, and no way to turn the juggernaut around onto a "renewable" platform, when the current energy minute by minute consumption is worth all of pre-history.

Humans can't even understand compound interest, let alone exponential growth.

As to coal, there's lots, lots more than you say...and if we use it all, we are history, full stop.


Yeah, too much inability to do math. This is such an important point.

And whether you are a global warming beliver or not, all the junk from coal (how effective are scrubbers, 97%?) in the air isnt something that I want to be breathing and etching the paint on my car.

 

[GMBoy]

Can somebody educate me on why there is so much dislike for coal? We have plenty of it and I thought it was much cleaner today then ever before?

Thanks.

 

[addyguy]

It's a lot of work and $$ to make coal clean.

It can be done, it is just not easy.

 

[Smokescreen]

I have talked to people in the oil industry that were told to go check on wells that had dried up decades ago as as part of an assessment, only to find that there was oil again. As many have said the supply isn't really the concern, evolving technology and better ways to burn it will outpace it...hopefully.

 

[PandaBear]

That is a loaded question. Depends on:

1) What do you mean as crude oil: do you consider only brent / light sweet crude or do you also consider tar sand.

2) Do you consider alternative to crude like algae or gas to liquid crude oil equivalent?

3) Do you consider expensive to a point that people refuse to use it as run out?

Depends on how you look at it, it could be 30 years to 200 years to forever. The point is, at some point we will either live differently and rely on other energy types (i.e. electrified transportation or agricultural based fuel like algae oil), or our society will step backward a bit and live differently (more urbanization) to adapt to it.

My take is, it is not that big of a deal over time, we will find ways to use less and substitute with other energy source. When oil is $200 / barrel, everyone will be growing algae and collecting swamp gas to crank into liquid fuel, people will switch to electric vehicle and telecommute, non ocean crossing plane ride will be replaced by direct path medium to high speed rail, and no one will be shipping products made on the opposite side of the world anymore (but instead computer controlled factories will build the same product for local market every several hundred miles across the world).

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: Smokescreen
I have talked to people in the oil industry that were told to go check on wells that had dried up decades ago as as part of an assessment, only to find that there was oil again.


Take a sponge, soak it until it's dripping, lightly squeeze it, then leave it sit...it will still make a pool of water.

It doesn't mean the water fairy has MADE more water and injected it into the sponge.