China boasts world’s largest navy: US DoD report

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Whether people want to accept it or not....

China will be a superpower with its vast wealth, population, manufacturing / exports, resources, stolen technologies from various advanced countries, necessary minerals from Afghanistan for advanced battery manufacturing, etc.... , etc.....

Look at the highway China built in Jamaica, some might laugh at something so ‘unimportant’.
China is building friendships and power across the globe. Notice how China is NOT evacuating their embassy ?

:unsure:

.
 

gathermewool

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Whether people want to accept it or not....

China will be a superpower with its vast wealth, population, manufacturing / exports, resources, stolen technologies from various advanced countries, necessary minerals from Afghanistan for advanced battery manufacturing, etc.... , etc.....

Look at the highway China built in Jamaica, some might laugh at something so ‘unimportant’.
China is building friendships and power across the globe. Notice how China is NOT evacuating their embassy ?

:unsure:

.

Neither is Russia. I wonder whether some of the senior Taliban are old enough to have fought the soviets. Hmmm
 
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Neither is Russia. I wonder whether some of the senior Taliban are old enough to have fought the soviets. Hmmm
That was like 2 regime ago? I mean if US and Viet Cong can establish relationship then Russia and Taliban sure can mend. I'm sure those older guys are gone and the newer guys weren't even born yet.

Which is yet another long term logistic problem: one day both sides will run out of recruits who care about their dads' generations' war. These guys would look at what they have gotten themselves into, and what they are getting / not getting in return.
 

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"" one day both sides will run out of recruits who care about their dads' generations' war""
Not so sure on that.

As long as you have young men that can't get a job, can't get money, can't get physical relations, and can't get married..... you will have plentiful recruits....

Want to stop the recruitment of young men in these tough places. Air drop massive amounts of video games, adult films, western movies, and alcohol to where they live.

BTW- if I am ever asked to be a planner to combat China.. the above is my plan. We may not be able to produce a chip to allow a F150 to run, but we can produce a lot of video games, adult films, western movies, and alcohol and flood them to Chinese military members. My guess is the conscript military members of China will be pacified and not much more will need to be done.
 
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gathermewool

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That was like 2 regime ago? I mean if US and Viet Cong can establish relationship then Russia and Taliban sure can mend. I'm sure those older guys are gone and the newer guys weren't even born yet.

Which is yet another long term logistic problem: one day both sides will run out of recruits who care about their dads' generations' war. These guys would look at what they have gotten themselves into, and what they are getting / not getting in return.

Two regimes for whom? Not the Taliban. Who cares about the Soviets? A Rusky is a Rusky just like an American will hence forth be an untrustworthy American, right? Will Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan change how they think of us?…Will Iran or Pakistan find new reasons to undermine our influence in the region? Will other more important rivals? Who knows. No matter who is to blame, we are all Americans and you can bet how we handled this debacle will be debated for DECADES. I look forward to reading all of it.

We were stupid in both Afghanistan and Vietnam. Unlike the stan (means the people of, for those curious) we should have seen that one commie isn’t the same as another RE: Vietnam. We should have seen that building a democracy in Vietnam was a waste of time and that leveraging ties with Vietnam would have been better against the awful Chinese threat. Luckily, the relationship between Vietnam and China never changed in a way that significantly changed the trajectory that lead to our bettering relationship and normalizing relationship.

Afghanistan isn’t Vietnam, though I admit I’ll have to study the parallels before I fully commit to that statement. Afghanistan isn‘t very complicated. Going forward they’ll likely be more opportunistic and will likely rely more heavily on our adversaries outside of the region. That means I feel as if the Taliban will be too busy trying to maintain what tenuous control they have and they may have to elicit help wherever they can. Or they’ll revert to strict Shariah law, lock down the population and we’ll have years of what ifs before we know where there will be ISIS resurgence or other negative outcomes that directly affect our strategic interests.

Strategic resources? Let someone else exploit that and their associated set of land mines. If we were going see some economics gain from this wreck of a country we would have already realized it. If we really CARED about this country we would have built institutions meant to not only equip the nation to fight its own battles, but to build leadership and lower ranks that would truly fight for the country. What we did was the equivalent of giving a 4 year old an M16 and told him that he needs to fight the neighbors to save his family. We needed to grow That kid up AND ensure he was properly raised and we failed in that regard in a major way. Americans spent too much and corruption took too much of a toll. We never had a chance.

It’s not any one fault, but it is all of our faults as Americans, the failure of this nation. ”We never went in to nation build” BS! We gave these people everything they needed, but the confidence and ability to take care of themselves. We let corruption take hold and, when we knew it, we told ourselves it was too late and insurmountable...so we let it happen and told ourselves it was cheaper that way. Cheaper. Always cheaper. If we have negative consequences based on this, be it a loss of regional clout or, worse, another attack on American soil, it will be our own fault. Forget “over the horizon” capabilities, we needed to help these people help themselves. We never did that.

/ rant.
 

GON

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Two regimes for whom? Not the Taliban. Who cares about the Soviets? A Rusky is a Rusky just like an American will hence forth be an untrustworthy American, right? Will Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Jordan change how they think of us?…Will Iran or Pakistan find new reasons to undermine our influence in the region? Will other more important rivals? Who knows. No matter who is to blame, we are all Americans and you can bet how we handled this debacle will be debated for DECADES. I look forward to reading all of it.

We were stupid in both Afghanistan and Vietnam. Unlike the stan (means the people of, for those curious) we should have seen that one commie isn’t the same as another RE: Vietnam. We should have seen that building a democracy in Vietnam was a waste of time and that leveraging ties with Vietnam would have been better against the awful Chinese threat. Luckily, the relationship between Vietnam and China never changed in a way that significantly changed the trajectory that lead to our bettering relationship and normalizing relationship.

Afghanistan isn’t Vietnam, though I admit I’ll have to study the parallels before I fully commit to that statement. Afghanistan isn‘t very complicated. Going forward they’ll likely be more opportunistic and will likely rely more heavily on our adversaries outside of the region. That means I feel as if the Taliban will be too busy trying to maintain what tenuous control they have and they may have to elicit help wherever they can. Or they’ll revert to strict Shariah law, lock down the population and we’ll have years of what ifs before we know where there will be ISIS resurgence or other negative outcomes that directly affect our strategic interests.

Strategic resources? Let someone else exploit that and their associated set of land mines. If we were going see some economics gain from this wreck of a country we would have already realized it. If we really CARED about this country we would have built institutions meant to not only equip the nation to fight its own battles, but to build leadership and lower ranks that would truly fight for the country. What we did was the equivalent of giving a 4 year old an M16 and told him that he needs to fight the neighbors to save his family. We needed to grow That kid up AND ensure he was properly raised and we failed in that regard in a major way. Americans spent too much and corruption took too much of a toll. We never had a chance.

It’s not any one fault, but it is all of our faults as Americans, the failure of this nation. ”We never went in to nation build” BS! We gave these people everything they needed, but the confidence and ability to take care of themselves. We let corruption take hold and, when we knew it, we told ourselves it was too late and insurmountable...so we let it happen and told ourselves it was cheaper that way. Cheaper. Always cheaper. If we have negative consequences based on this, be it a loss of regional clout or, worse, another attack on American soil, it will be our own fault. Forget “over the horizon” capabilities, we needed to help these people help themselves. We never did that.

/ rant.
If Ho Chi Minh was the president of Afghanistan, not sure we would have this situation today. Soldiers of the Viet Minh movement would die for Ho Chi Minh. The Soldiers in Afghanistan appear not to want to fight for Ashraf Ghani. Comes down to leadership. Not that complex.
 
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If Ho Chi Minh was the president of Afghanistan, not sure we would have this situation today. Soldiers of the Viet Minh movement would die for Ho Chi Minh. The Soldiers in Afghanistan appear not to want to fight for Ashraf Ghani. Comes down to leadership. Not that complex.
Ho Chi Minh wouldn't have accepted anything foreign and tolerate foreign influence, and people who would die for him do so because of that. We wouldn't have sponsor anyone who wouldn't listen to us. So this argument is moot.

Afghanistan isn’t Vietnam, though I admit I’ll have to study the parallels before I fully commit to that statement. Afghanistan isn‘t very complicated. Going forward they’ll likely be more opportunistic and will likely rely more heavily on our adversaries outside of the region. That means I feel as if the Taliban will be too busy trying to maintain what tenuous control they have and they may have to elicit help wherever they can. Or they’ll revert to strict Shariah law, lock down the population and we’ll have years of what ifs before we know where there will be ISIS resurgence or other negative outcomes that directly affect our strategic interests.

Strategic resources? Let someone else exploit that and their associated set of land mines. If we were going see some economics gain from this wreck of a country we would have already realized it. If we really CARED about this country we would have built institutions meant to not only equip the nation to fight its own battles, but to build leadership and lower ranks that would truly fight for the country. What we did was the equivalent of giving a 4 year old an M16 and told him that he needs to fight the neighbors to save his family. We needed to grow That kid up AND ensure he was properly raised and we failed in that regard in a major way. Americans spent too much and corruption took too much of a toll. We never had a chance.
Empire's graveyard. We should have learned from history to stay away. We did back when Soviet collapsed and that was wise, it is pointless to "nation build". Heck we won't even be able to nation build Texas in the US had it been a separate nation, what makes you think Afghan is better?
 
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gathermewool

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If Ho Chi Minh was the president of Afghanistan, not sure we would have this situation today. Soldiers of the Viet Minh movement would die for Ho Chi Minh. The Soldiers in Afghanistan appear not to want to fight for Ashraf Ghani. Comes down to leadership. Not that complex.

That’s LITERALLY what I said. We failed these people in that we failed to implement institutions for which they would fight for. We doubled down on the corrupt government and made the military weak. All our fault.
 
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When you are a foreign government, sometimes the only people who like you are the corrupted, so unfortunately there is no solution.
 

gathermewool

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Empire's graveyard. We should have learned from history to stay away. We did back when Soviet collapsed and that was wise, it is pointless to "nation build". Heck we won't even be able to nation build Texans in the US had it been a separate nation, what makes you think Afghan is better?


I know this won’t be popular to say, but as soon as Bin Laden went into hiding and stopped being a real threat, a real government would have considered the job done. We didn’t need to remain in Afghanistan up to and including his execution for any reason.

I also can’t stand cliches, like, “Empire graveyard.” If any empire was willing to train these people on THEIR own terms and capabilities, expecting to stay from cradle to grave, there would be some modicum of success. Train them with limited lines of comm‘s and realistic supply lines, not what we as Americans are capable of. Can you imagine if we had at least given them access to airforce mechanics and contractors and military training support for the next decade? I’m not saying the corruption of the Afghan gov wouldn’t have killed it tens times over, but had we lent them the support they actually needed, not what we told ourselves (and they told us they needed) we wouldn’t be here, I don’t think.
 
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It is always hard to tell who will defect so I can understand the worry of giving them a real military. They cannot even keep their soldiers from running away so if Taliban gives a general a better deal than us and he is to either surrender due to lack of resource, or become a big guy in Taliban, more than likely he would surrender to them.

Logistics is not just military, it is also local support. Villagers and local warlords, farmers and merchants, sources of soldiers and police, education and more choices in live than poverty or working for Taliban / opium farming. This is not easy or cheap to build up. They also aren't that valuable as they will likely not be a Switzerland who can sustain themselves through banking, or are they like Germany or Japan who could manufacture stuff. They are landlocked and with little natural resources as well, and poorly educated in the developed world standard.

Maybe if one day Pakistan is in good standard and you see lots of Afghan illegally immigrate to Pakistan, they would bring something home and develop their homeland organically. That's the only hope they have.
 

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Over 20 years we could have done better. If we had the foresight to develop military academies to produce the leaders we needed, we’d be in a helluva lot better situation than a week’s worth of mass desertions and a complete turnover of authority! Seriously, 350k ”highly trained” vs 75k roustabouts? Let’s get real. Corruption, morale, and training played a huge part in this unforeseeable collapse. I say, “unforeseeable” my butt!

I don’t have much complaint with your second paragraph; however, logistics is relative. We got them used to 1st world logistics, then left them with 3rd world capabilities. One of the many ways we failed them. Oman is the Switzerland of the Middle East. Lots of access and trade and SMART LEADERSHIP made that happen.

Pakistan is a lost cause. If they didn’t have nukes we wouldn’t deal with them at all. Pakistan sucks the big D.
 

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Sorry, I know I usually keep to myself on these forums, but when my own brothers and sisters die needlessly it gets a bit under my craw.
 

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This will be my last post in this thread.

Bollywood... yes Bollywood.

Afganis appreciated when the US arrived in qty in 2002 for many things. But Bollywood is one that sticks in my mind.

In the 1990s, the Taliban banned most things from India, especially Bollywood movies. Bollywood movies were very popular in Afghanistan prior to the Taliban occupation in the 1990s. Afghanis were so grateful to get Bollywood movies back after the Americans' and her allies arrived. That was a huge teaching point for me about how the Afghan people (in macro) felt about the Taliban/ Pakistan . Observations clearly suggested they were not fans of Taliban/ Pakistan. Some might go farther and say follow the money.

The term warlords always cracks me up. Warlords are typically wealthy people who have to self fund a military to protect their wealth/ business interests. If Bill Gates lived in Columbia, Venezuela, etc and had all his assets in that country.... good chance he would be some type of "warload" to protect his wealth.

During Taliban occupation, almost all imported goods had to come through Pakistan. Being a landlocked country, imported goods are often critical items. Just look at the USA and computer chips.

Through the USA's time in Afghanistan, the USA and her Allies had to rely on Pakistan for almost all shipments of goods in and out of Afghanistan . From fuel, conexs, USPS deliveries, military equipment, food for US troops, almost all was trucked through Pakistan, using Pakistan firms and labor. Some might suggest the Taliban generated large funds from these sales/ transports from Pakistan.

Let me close that the USA is a flawed and imperfect country... yet the greatest country the world has ever had. We are all blessed to be in the USA. A country where every man and woman can control their destiny by their actions. Be anything they choose to be... do anything they want to do... no other country in the history of the world has ever offered so much for just being a resident of a country.

Events reported on the news are super tragic... so very sorry for death and casualties.... very painful.

Signing out from this thread. Some very good contributions and thoughts...
 
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Over 20 years we could have done better. If we had the foresight to develop military academies to produce the leaders we needed, we’d be in a helluva lot better situation than a week’s worth of mass desertions and a complete turnover of authority! Seriously, 350k ”highly trained” vs 75k roustabouts? Let’s get real. Corruption, morale, and training played a huge part in this unforeseeable collapse. I say, “unforeseeable” my butt!

I don’t have much complaint with your second paragraph; however, logistics is relative. We got them used to 1st world logistics, then left them with 3rd world capabilities. One of the many ways we failed them. Oman is the Switzerland of the Middle East. Lots of access and trade and SMART LEADERSHIP made that happen.

Pakistan is a lost cause. If they didn’t have nukes we wouldn’t deal with them at all. Pakistan sucks the big D.
Let me put it this way. We've tried that in Vietnam, we've tried that with KMT in China, 1/2 of the Chicommies were from KMT defect and many graduated from the "highly trained" military academy. It doesn't matter how many we trained, as long as you don't have a guy on top that are not corrupted and have local support, you can bet they will defect to the other side if they are not getting something in return.

Oh, 1st world is not immune to logistic failure. Look at Korean War, look at Vietnam War, Afghan, War on Drug, Prohibition, whatever there are, you cannot fight local economy, black market, and smuggling. Using helicopters to airdrop water supply to outpost is not a long term solution. If you cannot even get local water you cannot win a war there. How long are you going to airdrop bottle water? 20 years? 50 years? 100 years? Will you fight your grand father's war about loyalty to a monarch that you never met, other than seeing his grandson on TV? I certainly won't fight a war on my grandpa's behave, I probably would visit a place he used to based in just as a family root event, and that's it.

Also what do you think we would do when the job is done? The guy we prop up would not get the funding anymore, so it is in his best interest to keep the war going and he keep getting paid. So he would likely want to do just enough to be paid indefinitely. At some point in time the local population would get tired and want him gone, and at some point in time we would just give up on him.
 
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China might have the largest fighting force, endless supplies of men with 4x the US population, a competitive air force, the strongest economy in the world, highly sophisticated computers and techs, and now apparently an enormous threatening Navy, and not exhausted from 20 years of mostly pointless warring, and is not bankrupt.

But we in the US have our secret weapons too. Our enemies will quake in their boots when they see our new recruiting tool.
 

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I can see this coming here very soon.
LOCK.jpg
 
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But we in the US have our secret weapons too. Our enemies will quake in their boots when they see our new recruiting tool.


I am not going to comment on the political aspect of this recruiting tool, but the communication, logical arguments, etc are like I have A, I have B, since A + B = C, I have D, I therefore should do E.

Still, go Aggies!

China is certainly bankrupt just like we are, maybe not due to war but they are also very corrupted and they have a lot of civil unrest to deal internally. I think they are trying to out QE the US so they are not getting the short end of the stick in the QE arm race.
 
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