California slashes residential solar feed-in rates

[dnewton3]

The duck curve shows why this fetish with renewable solar/wind energy is a sideline distraction, still to this day. And, this duck curve isn't a surprise to those who understand grid energy systems; this effect was predicted when solar/wind were being foisted at the beginning.

The two things I see wrong as a result of this phenomenon are:
- massive need for storage systems (batteries). These storage systems eat into the efficiency of the system, because storing and retrieving electrical energy is not anywhere near as efficient as direct on-demand use. So there needs to be an honest conversation about how this concept of "storing" electrical energy is going to affect overall system costs; cost of batteries AND cost of lost power in moving energy around from generation to storage to use
- serious concerns for yet-to-be-experienced hazardous waste; if you have massive battery storage systems, someday you're going to have massive hazardous waste issues to deal with. While recycling can address some of this, it most certainly does not address all of it. AND ... let's not forget the huge negative environmental impact of mining/producing which these battery storage systems create.

I admit that small generation/storage systems can make sense when you live off grid; people in remote areas can really benefit from the local generation and storage of electricity because the alternative is essentially having nothing. But that's not the conversation we're having here. We're talking about mass grid systems and relying on solar/wind for societal daily living, manufacturing, etc.

When will we wise up and realize that nuclear power is the most efficient, cleanest, best-balanced alternative for fossil fuels? It's not perfect, but it's way better than any other choice out there. Our social stigmas bias us against the most practical path forward.

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[alarmguy]

....

When will we wise up and realize that nuclear power is the most efficient, cleanest, best-balanced alternative for fossil fuels? ...

.

Maybe in the next decade when Americans see China's massive increase in Nuclear Power and care free electric grid. It is true at this point China is just catching up but they have the plans for the plants and money earmarked.

China 20 new Nuclear plants under construction - USA? 2

China has 70 (not a misprint) new nuclear plants planned - USA? Roughly 7 to 20 Applications/approvals depending how you read this map.

Locations of New Nuclear Power Reactor Applications

Locations of New Nuclear Power Reactor Applications

www.nrc.gov

 

[Shannow]

The duck curve shows why this fetish with renewable solar/wind energy is a sideline distraction, still to this day. And, this duck curve isn't a surprise to those who understand grid energy systems; this effect was predicted when solar/wind were being foisted at the beginning.

Australian market operators have moved from the duck curve to the "Solar Trench".

Here's an example of earlier this year (still early spring)...where the market operator had to shut down indistrial solar and wind farms to manage the market. The area between the solid red line and dotted red line was the energy that these sources WOULD have put into the market had they not been "curtailed"...and the answer to having more supply than demand in the middle of the day is...build more of it.

The other energy sources are clearly needed to manage nights, evening peaks, and morning peaks, so they flexed down as much as possible...

Can see that the residential solar couldn't be flexed off...it was fixed.
* there are talks that they may well soon be charging solar panel owners to pump energy into the grid if price goes negative (just like the thermals have to pay during those times)....feed in tarrfis are already 7 c versus 33c to buy.
* they are talking of running the Distribution systems onto overvoltage to trip household solar off the grid in such times.

 

[MVAR]

Australian market operators have moved from the duck curve to the "Solar Trench".

Here's an example of earlier this year (still early spring)...where the market operator had to shut down indistrial solar and wind farms to manage the market. The area between the solid red line and dotted red line was the energy that these sources WOULD have put into the market had they not been "curtailed"...and the answer to having more supply than demand in the middle of the day is...build more of it.

The other energy sources are clearly needed to manage nights, evening peaks, and morning peaks, so they flexed down as much as possible...

Can see that the residential solar couldn't be flexed off...it was fixed.
* there are talks that they may well soon be charging solar panel owners to pump energy into the grid if price goes negative (just like the thermals have to pay during those times)....feed in tarrfis are already 7 c versus 33c to buy.
* they are talking of running the Distribution systems onto overvoltage to trip household solar off the grid in such times.

View attachment 192107

California already curtails PV (and wind on occasion). I’ve seen prices go negative far more than I can remember during daytime hours. Prices start to increase rapidly around HE19 as the massive amount of PV generation comes offline.

Prices aren’t the only issue with these PV installations. They’ve been thrown together & placed online so fast they’ve been loosely regulated at best. Several have poor to downright incorrect relay settings that have placed the grid danger on multiple occasions. A few years ago there was a single 115kV bus that had the potential to cascade an outage throughout WECC. It was due to incorrect relay settings with its PV plant along with the incorrect settings at the neighboring PV plants on the same & parallel circuits. Others trip offline when they should be staying online during voltage or Hz excursions due to incorrect relay settings, compounding system trouble.

Don’t even get me started on their lack of reactive support or lack of spinning mass & droop control.

 

[PandaBear]

I think long term pricing going time of use is the only way to solve this problem. You can go negative feed in all you want the home owner or local municipal would still find ways to prioritize their own capacity rather than the least favorite plant on the grid (some coal plant owned by 3rd party or nuke plant with no negotiation power with variable output).

Also time of use plan is the only way to encourage energy use shifting. Electric dryer on a timer, AC with ice storage, discount EV charging, discount data center deal to increase speed and AC load for idle workload, etc all can help, but would only happen if someone got a good deal vs other timeslot.

Let's also not forget AC is one of the biggest uncertainty on the grid at the moment and most people don't have the incentive to NOT use it during duck curve hours.

 

[OVERKILL]

I think long term pricing going time of use is the only way to solve this problem. You can go negative feed in all you want the home owner or local municipal would still find ways to prioritize their own capacity rather than the least favorite plant on the grid (some coal plant owned by 3rd party or nuke plant with no negotiation power with variable output).

Also time of use plan is the only way to encourage energy use shifting. Electric dryer on a timer, AC with ice storage, discount EV charging, discount data center deal to increase speed and AC load for idle workload, etc all can help, but would only happen if someone got a good deal vs other timeslot.

Let's also not forget AC is one of the biggest uncertainty on the grid at the moment and most people don't have the incentive to NOT use it during duck curve hours.

This who boondoggle is precisely why I said years ago that solar can be complementary to existing non-emitting sources IN MODERATION as long as the installed capacity doesn't start trying to bite into the share held by lower emitting reliable sources, like nuclear and hydro.

It is beyond idiocy, and bothers me to no end, to see wind and solar advocates take shots at nuclear for not being able or allowed to maneuver out of the way to let wind on the grid when it's particularly windy, as if this is somehow the fault of the reliable generator and not a glaring problem with the intermittent one, producing out of phase with demand.

The problem is that their advocacy isn't predicated on the usefulness of the source, but rather their desire for there to be as much of it as possible. So the lack of logic and reason doesn't matter, because it isn't premised on that. This makes rational conversation nary impossible, because they aren't really looking to solve the problem of having reliable non-emitting generation.

 

[PandaBear]

This who boondoggle is precisely why I said years ago that solar can be complementary to existing non-emitting sources IN MODERATION as long as the installed capacity doesn't start trying to bite into the share held by lower emitting reliable sources, like nuclear and hydro.

It is beyond idiocy, and bothers me to no end, to see wind and solar advocates take shots at nuclear for not being able or allowed to maneuver out of the way to let wind on the grid when it's particularly windy, as if this is somehow the fault of the reliable generator and not a glaring problem with the intermittent one, producing out of phase with demand.

The problem is that their advocacy isn't predicated on the usefulness of the source, but rather their desire for there to be as much of it as possible. So the lack of logic and reason doesn't matter, because it isn't premised on that. This makes rational conversation nary impossible, because they aren't really looking to solve the problem of having reliable non-emitting generation.

That's human nature. When the initial rules were set in place they didn't anticipate solar to be so cheap and widespread. Even Solyndra didn't see it coming or they would never have been in business to begin with (they are too inefficient but they are cheaper initially than PV panels).

Sometimes it take some huge price spike to pay for the wasted electricity to ramp up to see how much it really cost them. Sometimes they need the customers to duke it out against each other instead of a customer vs corporate to make things work.

 

[MVAR]

“I think long term pricing going time of use is the only way to solve this problem. You can go negative feed in all you want the home owner or local municipal would still find ways to prioritize their own capacity rather than the least favorite plant on the grid (some coal plant owned by 3rd party or nuke plant with no negotiation power with variable output).”

This doesn’t make much sense. “Negative feed”? Do you mean negative pricing?

A homeowner has absolutely zero say as to where the electricity is sourced that keeps the grid at 60 cycles, and rightfully so.

A municipality likely has their own generation of various types as well as power purchase agreements in place to supply their commitment to the grid.

The market operator will have a set amount of load scheduled & forecasted for the next days operations. Registered entities bid in for the hours they want to generate at rates that are near the break even point for them but enough to pay expenses & make a profit. At around 1000hrs the previous day, the day ahead market closes & the ISO begins scheduling.

Certain entities just need to generate so they’ve entered a self schedule & accept whatever the lowest clearing price is for every hour segment. Others bid into the market in increasing & decreasing bid segments. If an entity clears the market, it will receive a day ahead schedule around 1330hrs for the next days schedule. This is also the start of the real time market (much more volatile market).

The reason for this market is to cover expected load at the lowest cost possible. There are several factors besides the energy that dictate a certain nodes LMP(locational marginal price) that include congestion & other inhibitors. I’m also leaving out resource adequacy, AGC, RUC awards, etc for simplicities sake.

The BA or ISO’s AGC computer is going to dispatch generators for frequency control (load/gen balance) as well as award generators bid segment awards for 5/10/15 & 60min market segments. A local municipality isn’t going to have the control to impact the ramp of a nearby coal plant or nuclear plant. They can choose to have a power purchase agreement that’ll set the purchase rate of mwh but that’s about it.

“Also time of use plan is the only way to encourage energy use shifting. Electric dryer on a timer, AC with ice storage, discount EV charging, discount data center deal to increase speed and AC load for idle workload, etc all can help, but would only happen if someone got a good deal vs other timeslot.”

Why would you want to encourage this? Why not start with fixing the government regulations that created the mess without regard for grid reliability?

“Let's also not forget AC is one of the biggest uncertainty on the grid at the moment and most people don't have the incentive to NOT use it during duck curve hours.”

Don’t understand this statement. Are you talking about a shift to DC? HVDC is in use where it’s financially feasible already. It does have its advantages but also comes with drawbacks, like everything else in life.

I’m on my phone at my sons grappling practice so hope this made sense.

 

[Shannow]

I think long term pricing going time of use is the only way to solve this problem.

No...my view of a successful transition, and one that I bang on reltntlessly in meetings etc. is that the customer doesn't notice...in availability or price.

We can't force people to an electric only future, and then ask them to only drive their EVs at midnight, and cook their dinner at 3PM...IMO, that's a FAIL.

 

[Snagglefoot]

Maybe in the next decade when Americans see China's massive increase in Nuclear Power and care free electric grid. It is true at this point China is just catching up but they have the plans for the plants and money earmarked.

China 20 new Nuclear plants under construction - USA? 2

China has 70 (not a misprint) new nuclear plants planned - USA? Roughly 7 to 20 Applications/approvals depending how you read this map.

Locations of New Nuclear Power Reactor Applications

Locations of New Nuclear Power Reactor Applications

www.nrc.gov

I thought I this would be a good place to park this screen shot on the latest startup of a nuclear reactor in the USA and the completion dates of the previous reactors. Enjoy,

 

[demarpaint]

Force it hard enough on people and eventually it might just work.

 

[MVAR]

Force it hard enough on people and eventually it might just work.

Force what? Overreaching mandates that take us backwards?

When I was still working the transmission desk at a former employer, said public utility was asked by the PUC to research the cost of a 100% reliable grid utilizing the most current available “green” technology. Customer cost came it at a minimum price of $5kWh. It could easily double that figure as well. Good luck pushing that onto people.

Parts of the grid are already in bad enough shape due to “green” energy that many operators are starting to look for new careers. People have no clue what they’re asking for

 

[demarpaint]

Force what? Overreaching mandates that take us backwards?

When I was still working the transmission desk at a former employer, said public utility was asked by the PUC to research the cost of a 100% reliable grid utilizing the most current available “green” technology. Customer cost came it at a minimum price of $5kWh. It could easily double that figure as well. Good luck pushing that onto people.

Parts of the grid are already in bad enough shape due to “green” energy that many operators are starting to look for new careers. People have no clue what they’re asking for

Force as in raise prices on fuel and energy enough so that people cave in, bite the bullet and buy solar panels. I get about 3-5 calls a day from people pushing solar panels, they can keep them. Now if I buy a new home and it has solar shingles [if available], maybe, it depends on the up-charge and the life expectancy of the roof. Solar panels, no thanks.
Edit to add, and the solar shingle if available impact on insurance.

 

[SHOZ]

Force it hard enough on people and eventually it might just work.

As if we would have a choice??????

 

[SHOZ]

Force as in raise prices on fuel and energy enough so that people cave in, bite the bullet and buy solar panels. I get about 3-5 calls a day from people pushing solar panels, they can keep them. Now if I buy a new home and it has solar shingles, maybe, it depends on the up-charge and the life expectancy of the roof. Solar panels, no thanks.

We get hail storms that only show up on radar then the entire area is swamped by roofing contractors. I wonder how a roof full of panels would do in a hail storm?

 

[SHOZ]

After insisting Illinois go fossil free and with a moratorium on nuclear power Illinois has seen the light. LOL or another boondoggle is more like it.

Pritzker signs measure allowing new small-scale nuclear technology in Illinois

By JERRY NOWICKI & ANDREW ADAMS Capitol News Illinois [email protected] Gov. JB Pritzker on Friday signed into law a measure that will allow for the limited development of new nuclear power generation technology in the state. The measure, House Bill 2473, does not allow new...

capitolnewsillinois.com

 

[MVAR]

Force as in raise prices on fuel and energy enough so that people cave in, bite the bullet and buy solar panels. I get about 3-5 calls a day from people pushing solar panels, they can keep them. Now if I buy a new home and it has solar shingles, maybe, it depends on the up-charge and the life expectancy of the roof. Solar panels, no thanks.

You’re going backwards with this thinking. Do you really want a more expensive & less reliable electric system?

 

[demarpaint]

We get hail storms that only show up on radar then the entire area is swamped by roofing contractors. I wonder how a roof full of panels would do in a hail storm?

Not well.

 

[demarpaint]

You’re going backwards with this thinking. Do you really want a more expensive & less reliable electric system?

Going backwards? How so?

 

[MVAR]

Going backwards? How so?

Have you not read any of my previous posts? PV is not something you want en mass in the grid for the reasons I’ve previously stated. Lack of spinning mass, lack of droop control, lack of reactive support, shoddy installations leading to improper relay settings that can cause cascading outages, shorter lifespans creating more waste & expenditure, large ramps of shifting load pickup due to variable nature.