Bulls take the market

[smokey1]

Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Originally Posted By: smokey1
Nope . Long sighted . Oil is rising as we insult one another .

Let's see if there's a cause and effect relationship here. Maybe a group hug will send it down. How about a round of Kumbaya?

Good one, smokey1

when the last oil well starts to run out we could start a pilgrimage to it and take hands while singing joyous hymns from the B.I.T.O.G. bible . Then as the final drop of sweet crude oil is pumped out from this earth the realization sinks in and all start yelling , shouting , and pummeling one another with the BIBLE . GOD is oil , OIL is god . :- )

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: smokey1
D189379 , tell this to those who'll lose their jobs due to the downfall of the great S.U.V.and larger vehicles . http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/stories/2009/05/04/daily46.html . This doesn't include CHRYSLER release of dealerships to close . This impacts the restaurants and all other businesses in their community . The SHORT SIGHTED VIEW of greed has worked wonders for many thus far .

From the link:
Quote:
“Dealers are individual, independent businesses and they have an individual impact on the market place,” Stasiak said. “To arbitrarily pick so many for closing without looking at what it would mean to all their communities would be devastating.”

Are you kidding me? Where is the money supposed to come from, bud? GM is in trouble because they are out of money...

Quote:
The groups say that eliminating such a large number of dealerships will significantly raise unemployment and be potentially devastating economically and socially for some communities that benefit from their philanthropic and other contributions, such as tax revenue.

Could this be anymore of a loaded statement?

 

[Tempest]

Quote:
now I'm starting to think they're outright lying in an attempt to make it be so. As if opinion and just getting consumer confidence up is all that's needed to fix everything.

Good luck on that is all I can say.

You got it. They have to keep the bubble going. That's why gov. says they "have to" keep demand up. Individual consumers are tapped out, so they will collectivly put the nation into bankruptcy instead.

 

[buster]

I fully agree.

 

[Tempest]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124178530342200595.html

Quote:
Nonfarm payrolls fell 539,000 in April, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday, slightly better than Wall Street expectations for a 610,000 decline, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. March was revised to show a steeper payroll drop of 699,000

Quote:
The government added 72,000, "mainly due to hiring of temporary workers in preparation for Census 2010," Hall said.

So the "lower" employment numbers that will be lauded about for days is only better because of temp. gov. workers. These are not self supporting jobs and actually take money out of the private sector.

 

[Julian]

Originally Posted By: smokey1
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Originally Posted By: smokey1
Nope . Long sighted . Oil is rising as we insult one another .

Let's see if there's a cause and effect relationship here. Maybe a group hug will send it down. How about a round of Kumbaya?

Good one, smokey1

when the last oil well starts to run out we could start a pilgrimage to it and take hands while singing joyous hymns from the B.I.T.O.G. bible . Then as the final drop of sweet crude oil is pumped out from this earth the realization sinks in and all start yelling , shouting , and pummeling one another with the BIBLE . GOD is oil , OIL is god . :- )

 

[Primus]

The market as we knew is dead and what we see now is a real big chapiteau.

 

[Gary Allan]

Do they travel to other countries to spend their earnings?

 

[buster]

Quote:
Don’t Be Fooled by Inflation


Strike up the band, boys, happy days are here again! Recently released short-term economic data, including unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls, home sales, and business spending, which had been so unambiguously horrific in February and March, are now just garden-variety awful. With the Wicked Witch of Depression now apparently crushed under the house of Obamanomics, the Munchkins of Wall Street have sounded the all clear, pushing the Dow Jones up 25% from its lows. But the premature conclusion of their Lollipop Guild economists, that the crash of 2008/2009 is now a fading memory, is just as delusional as their failure to see it coming in the first place.

Once again, the facts do not support the euphoria. Over the past few months, the government has literally blasted the economy with trillions of new dollars conjured from the ether. The fact that this “stimulus” has blown some air back into our deflating consumer-based bubble economy, and given a boost to an oversold stock market, is hardly evidence that the problems have been solved. It is simply an illusion, and not a very good one at that. By throwing money at the problem, all the government is creating is inflation. Although this can often look like growth, it is no more capable of creating wealth than a hall of mirrors is capable of creating people.

We are currently suffering from an overdose of past stimulus. A larger dose now will only worsen the condition. The Greenspan/Bush stimulus of 2001 prevented a much needed recession and bought us seven years of artificial growth. The multi-trillion dollar tab for that episode of federally-engineered economic bullet-dodging came due in 2008. The 2001 stimulus had kicked off a debt-fueled consumption binge that resulted in economic weakness, not strength. So now, even though the recent stimulus administered a much larger dose, we will likely experience a much smaller bounce. One can only speculate as to how much time this stimulus will buy and what it will cost when the bill arrives.

My guess is that, at most, the Bernanke/Obama stimulus will buy two years before the hangover sets in. However, since this dose is so massive, the comedown will be equally horrific. My fear is that when the drug wears off, we will reach for that monetary syringe one last time. At that point, the dosage may be lethal, and the economy will die of hyperinflation.

As always, the bulls fail to understand that investors can lose wealth even as nominal stock prices rise. As a corollary, the bearish case is not discredited by rising stock prices. While there are some bears that mistakenly cling to the idea that deflation will cause the dollar to rise, those of us in the inflation camp understand that the opposite will occur.

In the meantime, stocks are not rising because the long-term fundamentals of our economy are improving. If anything, the rise in global stock prices is due to investors realizing that cash is even riskier then stocks. The massive inflation that is the source of the stimulus is essentially punishment for those holding cash. To preserve purchasing power, investors must seek alternative stores of value, such as common stock.

It is important to point out that despite an impressive rally, U.S. stocks have substantially underperformed foreign stocks. In the past two months, while the Dow Jones has risen 30%, the Hang Seng and the German DAX have risen by over 50% in U.S. dollars. Commodity prices are also rising, with oil hitting a five-month high. And gold is shining as well, with the HUI index of gold stocks up 30% during the past two months, and 2/3 of those gains occurring in the past month. If this rally really were about improving economic fundamentals, gold stocks would not be among the leaders. Further, during those two months, the U.S. dollar index fell by 7%, with commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars surging 20%.

To me, the relative strength of foreign stocks and currencies indicates that perhaps the global economy is not as impaired as many have feared. It has been my view all along that after the initial shock wears off, the world will be better off – once it no longer subsidizes the American economy. The shrinking U.S. current account deficit is evidence of this trend in action. Renewed strength in foreign stocks and weakness in the dollar may indicate that not only is the world decoupling from the U.S., but benefitting as a result.

So let the Munchkins dance for now. But remember, the Witch is not dead; only temporarily stunned by an avalanche of fake money.

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Do they travel to other countries to spend their earnings?

Do you want higher taxes for yourself?

 

[Julian]

 

[Gary Allan]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Do they travel to other countries to spend their earnings?

Do you want higher taxes for yourself?


That doesn't appear to be an answer. Looks like another question to me.

 

[smokey1]

gas went up about .15 cents from THURSDAY . Run bull run . Run us a little further into a recession . We're all commodities . Take stock in that . ;- )

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Originally Posted By: Tempest
Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
Do they travel to other countries to spend their earnings?

Do you want higher taxes for yourself?


That doesn't appear to be an answer. Looks like another question to me.

Probably not, but that has no relevance to the question. It DOES matter how you spend money. If the 72K census takers are "real" jobs, why not just higher 5 million (the amount of jobs recently lost)? They could get the census done in a week! But then what would they do after that week? We could just keep paying them since the money isn't likely to leave the US, right? 5 million census takers with nothing to do will still circulate money through the economy. Of course, they aren't producing anything or service of value.

So as jobs in the private sector (the ones that generate taxes) disappear, the gov. could simply higher more people and put an even higher burden on the private sector, which will cause gov. to higher more people, etc....

And tax money has to pay them so money is being taken from people that ARE producing economically valuable goods and services. This is a drag on the economy and a misallocation of resources.

Now, kindly answer my question.

 

[Gary Allan]

Quote:
Probably not, but that has no relevance to the question.


Sure it does. You can't tell me how that money "evaporates" from the private sector if those people have to spend it somewhere, somehow, in the exact same economy. There is some merit to your point ...but it is ignorant of this one little tidbit. Conspicuously ignorant. You're in a bubble. Money exists. It's spent ..in the exact same economy. The principles that are doing the spending don't really alter the content or the productivity. Those people are going to be paying or creating bills ...or do you suggest that they throw the money in a shredder?? Surely you can see that this is not so.

Quote:
If the 72K census takers are "real" jobs, why not just higher 5 million (the amount of jobs recently lost)? They could get the census done in a week! But then what would they do after that week? We could just keep paying them since the money isn't likely to leave the US, right? 5 million census takers with nothing to do will still circulate money through the economy.


So? Who said they were permanent jobs? How do you suggest doing the census?

Quote:
. Of course, they aren't producing anything or service of value.


The census produces nothing of value? I see. Maybe if the government outsourced it to private enterprises (same money source) you would herald it as a sensible achievement ..since someone would manage to capitalize on it

That's what weapons development is. How dare they not let the market just produce weapons and pick and choose from what's available on the global market.

Quote:
So as jobs in the private sector (the ones that generate taxes) disappear, the gov. could simply higher more people and put an even higher burden on the private sector, which will cause gov. to higher more people, etc....


The census takers aren't going to pay taxes

Are they driving some private census company out of business?

The only point you can make is that the figures are skewed due to the hiring of census takers. The rest is beeswax.

Quote:
Now, kindly answer my question.


No. Even angrily.

Okay.

I accept that there are costs to a functional society. These costs have to be paid. (we've been here before). I want good roads, good schools, well funded police/fire/municipal services. These costs were very manageable at one time, but now are becoming ever more expensive. Why is that? It's not due to government taking more and more of our money. It's because we've become a poorer people.

Figure a way to stop making us poorer people, and all of these problems evaporate. Continue to deplete our wealth, and expect more costs associated with the maintenance of the society ..in whatever state of functionality or dysfunction that it may be in.

 

[smokey1]

some corporations moved to other foreign lands for less delinquecy and better educated workers than here . Sad ain't it .

 

[Tempest]

Gary, in order for your theory to be true, at least 2 principles have to be true:

1: It doesn't matter what you spend money on, as long as it's spent.

2: And that tax rates have no affect on the economy.

Neither is true. And you didn't answer my question.

If we quadruple taxes on motor oil, are you and Amsoil going to realize more income? Of course not.

Please explain to me how higher taxes have no affect on the economy.

 

[Gary Allan]

Quote:
1: It doesn't matter what you spend money on, as long as it's spent.


In terms of a gross domestic product, it doesn't.

(answer this)
Where did the money "channeled" through those census takers go? Did it evaporate? YES or NO?

Quote:
2: And that tax rates have no affect on the economy.


It may or may not. If you want growth for the sake of Wall St. & Co. in our never ending decline from greatness, YES.

To some people, .05% growth isn't enough if 5% is attainable NOW ..regardless of whether it is sustainable or not.

Some whine when they need their diaper changed and want a bottle.


Quote:
If we quadruple taxes on motor oil, are you and Amsoil going to realize more income? Of course not.


What the heck are you talking about. You seem to attempt to put this into some personal context of Amsoil and how it effects my selling of it.

You've been a proponent of trickle down economics. That means focusing the wealth at a higher point in the society and having that element watershed down upon the rabble.

The rabble don't buy top tier products. They make your WM's thrive.

I want MORE Amsoil customers ..and that just isn't likely to occur if we continue to deplete our wealth as a nation. I may gain or lose customers under any and all economic conditions. It's an open competitive market, but only a fool can't see that when you're continuing to devalue the earning power of your population, in the face of increasing absolute costs, you're going to lose in the end.

 

[Steve S]

Originally Posted By: smokey1
some corporations moved to other foreign lands for less delinquecy and better educated workers than here . Sad ain't it .
I would bet that if you dug for the truth it would be lower wages,less government labor laws and the ability for the corporations to pollute the enviroment .

 

[buster]

Originally Posted By: Steve S
Originally Posted By: smokey1
some corporations moved to other foreign lands for less delinquecy and better educated workers than here . Sad ain't it .
I would bet that if you dug for the truth it would be lower wages,less government labor laws and the ability for the corporations to pollute the enviroment .


Good point. I'm not sure how accurate, but there is a lot of truth to it.