Bulletproof Jogger

IndyIan said:
Yes, and which neighborhoods did they target last year.... And why not other neighborhoods last year? If nothing changes in those neighborhoods then probably crime will be around the same next year... Yes anything could happen, but there's reasons why data is collected, and its usually wise to know the odds and bet with them if you can.

I can see why you dodge the whole issue, in some markets you are dealing with the 1/3lb burger is smaller than a 1/4lb burger crowd... https://awrestaurants.com/blog/aw-third-pound-burger-fractions
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Well I was just thinking the last few weeks, you get a supermarket that's targeted, schools targeted, etc. Those were very safe until they're not.

As for safety, that's a nationwide thing, you never say that a neighborhood is safe or not, falls under steering and one of those fair housing laws. No one would buy in an unsafe neighborhood so it goes down the tubes.
 
The problem is that crime doesn’t restrict itself to unsafe neighborhoods. Opportunity and access are what these varmints are looking for.

The area I live in is ranked as some of the worst in the country. Neighborhood Scout uses a scale of 1 to 100 with 100 being perfectly safe.

Tacoma is rated as 1.

Seattle is rated as 2.
 
IndyIan said:
Yes, and which neighborhoods did they target last year.... And why not other neighborhoods last year? If nothing changes in those neighborhoods then probably crime will be around the same next year... Yes anything could happen, but there's reasons why data is collected, and its usually wise to know the odds and bet with them if you can.
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Around here we're also known for the Boston strangler. Back in the day, people felt it was safe so they left their doors unlocked. Then a bunch of people got murdered and there was no sign of forced entry. People started locking their doors afterwards. Data is basically hindsight, it won't tell you what will happen in the future and the future is basically random.

As for the OP, I've exercised with weight vests in the past. Not a big fan of it, rather run faster than be bogged down with extra weight. You only get faster if you run faster.
 
Wolf359 said:
Well I was just thinking the last few weeks, you get a supermarket that's targeted, schools targeted, etc. Those were very safe until they're not.

As for safety, that's a nationwide thing, you never say that a neighborhood is safe or not, falls under steering and one of those fair housing laws. No one would buy in an unsafe neighborhood so it goes down the tubes.
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Concerts, campuses, and movie theaters have been targets too....

Looney crazy evil people who want to do harm to others have plenty of places to choose from. ... Nothing new here.

And the authorities are 10-15 minutes away at best. A whole, whole lot of harm can happen in that short period of time.

As far as neighborhoods go....
In my area neighborhoods like Governor's Land, Ford's Colony, Landfall and Holly Hills with custom built homes that are worth 1-5 million dollars. I guarantee that no serious thefts and or other crimes typically happen in those neighborhoods. And only Ford's Colony is " gated" .

Only land and home I have ever heard of having 24 hour armed security in my area was the Mar's family estate in my home county of Gloucester. Yes.... That is the family of Mars candies by the way. That place was for sale for $24,999,999 and that was in 2005.

There's a reason for why that is the case here.

Can people do things in high end neighborhoods? Absolutely... People can travel there if they have the gumption to do so. But they don't.... Again... There's a couple of reasons why.
 
Wolf359 said:
Around here we're also known for the Boston strangler. Back in the day, people felt it was safe so they left their doors unlocked. Then a bunch of people got murdered and there was no sign of forced entry. People started locking their doors afterwards. Data is basically hindsight, it won't tell you what will happen in the future and the future is basically random.
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For sure, past crime statistics can't predict when a serial killer is going pop up in an area, and target people in their houses, but that's also like a 1 in 10 million risk as well... That level of risk might as well be essentially random.
Most people would like to know before they buy, that something like break-ins are common in an area. That risk is predictable and likely not to change all that much year to year. It is not really random at all.
Also I understand as a real estate agent you can't advise what qualifies as a "Safe neighborhood" for client. I would hope you would direct a client to crime information so they could make that decision for themselves.
 
IndyIan said:
For sure, past crime statistics can't predict when a serial killer is going pop up in an area, and target people in their houses, but that's also like a 1 in 10 million risk as well... That level of risk might as well be essentially random.
Most people would like to know before they buy, that something like break-ins are common in an area. That risk is predictable and likely not to change all that much year to year. It is not really random at all.
Also I understand as a real estate agent you can't advise what qualifies as a "Safe neighborhood" for client. I would hope you would direct a client to crime information so they could make that decision for themselves.
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You are way, way off on your serial killer statistics. Nowhere near 1 in 10 million. How about as low as .71 per hundred thousand and as high as 7 per hundred thousand per year?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/serial-killers-by-state

As for what's safe, that's the standard response when people ask, you just tell them to check with the police department about the current statistics.

While the risk may be the same year to year, whether you're the target or not is random no matter what the risk scores say.
 
Wolf359 said:
You are way, way off on your serial killer statistics. Nowhere near 1 in 10 million. How about as low as .71 per hundred thousand and as high as 7 per hundred thousand per year?

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/serial-killers-by-state

As for what's safe, that's the standard response when people ask, you just tell them to check with the police department about the current statistics.
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I would guess most serial killer victims weren't killed in their home or taken from it, but anyways its not really on my list of potential threats to my family. Unless you are a vulnerable person(sex worker, homeless, teenager kicked out of house, etc) its a pretty low risk.
While the risk may be the same year to year, whether you're the target or not is random no matter what the risk scores say.
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Property crime is partially random, and some neighborhoods in Toronto see around 1% of all households getting broken into per year. But I think you would find that some houses get broken into far more often than others. Probably the ones that get broken into the most aren't reporting either because they are involved in crime.
Other neighborhoods have less than .1% of all households getting broken into. So while being a victim is sort of random, I'd rather have the overall odds to be .1% than 1%.
 
john_pifer said:
And I thought i was being conscientious and safe by wearing a lighted vest when I run after dark…
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Well there's two sides to every coin. Yes, probably safer overall but could also be a nicely lit target at night at the wrong time and place. While things can be somewhat random, the odds are that it provides higher safety rather than a nicely lit target.
 
RoadDukie said:
I can't believe that nobody has asked the most important question yet...

We know he was wearing a vest... but was he wearing a mask? 😀
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Last time I checked, masks don't do anything against bullets. Maybe a helmet but the more you weigh the slower you run, the old rule of thumb used to be that each additional pound makes you 1% slower or thereabouts.
 
Wolf359 said:
Well there's two sides to every coin. Yes, probably safer overall but could also be a nicely lit target at night at the wrong time and place. While things can be somewhat random, the odds are that it provides higher safety rather than a nicely lit target.
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I’ve had people yell at me, call names, etc. Mostly if I’m out running on a Fri or Sat night.
 
john_pifer said:
I’ve had people yell at me, call names, etc. Mostly if I’m out running on a Fri or Sat night.
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Never normally happens to me but I have had a few people try to ask me the time or money while I'm running past and kinda expect me to stop or something, I just shrug and keep running or just shout out the time as I go past. Incidentally the people asking for money these days are pretty aggressive, usually at least a dollar or $5, but some even ask for $20. I remember when I was a kid, they used to just ask for a dime or quarter. I think the quarter would translate to about $1 today with inflation.
 
I can't imagine actually working out in a vest. Thankfully, my position in the agency leaves me the option to not wear mine (I work inside a secure facility with no firearms allowed, we are more at risk of being stabbed and the vest will do very little for that unless it is a stab rated one (Mine isn't)), and on the occasions that I did and had to be outside for any period of time, in GA, in the summer, I would probably die if I had to wear it all day. If I had to put it on and jog around.....no thank you.
 
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