BMW changes course on batteries- moving to 4680 format

[edyvw]

Prior to retiring, I worked on the dry battery electrode development project and what would become the 4680 cells but they weren't called that at the time. The engineers also did a lot of experimentation with pouch cells and prismatic cells but kept coming back to the cylindrical form factor. Elon, in his visions of grandeur once thought that Tesla would manufacture and supply their battery cells to all of the other makers or at least license the technology. Nice idea but he's too busy just making cars than to build a few mega-battery manufacturing plants so some battery-specific manufacturers will pick up that market.

Alarmguy, your argument that one might invest in the lower margin companies due to the fact they will be producing vehicles that are much more simple, require far less of a work force to build, much more modular and much more profitable ignores the fact that Tesla is constantly improving and refining their design and manufacturing processes. The Gigacastings are an example as is their process of applying paint and rust protection. And unless the auto maker unions are broken up, don't ever expect them to allow reduced work forces. Even if the production methods are improved and more automated, they will figure out a way to keep those displaced workers on the payroll. So much for getting their profit margins up above 25%.

Also, never underestimate Elon's ego and the fact that he is the richest man in the world. If one of the other automakers has some kind of breakthough in battery technology or manufacturing methods you can be sure he won't be sitting in a corner pouting about his once great company. He'll put the resources into competing with or even bettering the other's technology.

It reminds me of the scene in Citizen Kane where one of Kane's employees tells him he is losing a million dollars a year on his newspaper. Kane just grins and says "You’re right, I did lose a million dollars last year. I expect to lose a million dollars this year. I expect to lose a million dollars *next* year. You know, Mr. Thatcher, at the rate of a million dollars a year, I’ll have to close this place in… 60 years.”

Elon has F.U. money. And the legacy automakers don't.

He first needs to figure out how to put two panels together inside vehicle.

 

[Ws6]

Prior to retiring, I worked on the dry battery electrode development project and what would become the 4680 cells but they weren't called that at the time. The engineers also did a lot of experimentation with pouch cells and prismatic cells but kept coming back to the cylindrical form factor. Elon, in his visions of grandeur once thought that Tesla would manufacture and supply their battery cells to all of the other makers or at least license the technology. Nice idea but he's too busy just making cars than to build a few mega-battery manufacturing plants so some battery-specific manufacturers will pick up that market.

Alarmguy, your argument that one might invest in the lower margin companies due to the fact they will be producing vehicles that are much more simple, require far less of a work force to build, much more modular and much more profitable ignores the fact that Tesla is constantly improving and refining their design and manufacturing processes. The Gigacastings are an example as is their process of applying paint and rust protection. And unless the auto maker unions are broken up, don't ever expect them to allow reduced work forces. Even if the production methods are improved and more automated, they will figure out a way to keep those displaced workers on the payroll. So much for getting their profit margins up above 25%.

Also, never underestimate Elon's ego and the fact that he is the richest man in the world. If one of the other automakers has some kind of breakthough in battery technology or manufacturing methods you can be sure he won't be sitting in a corner pouting about his once great company. He'll put the resources into competing with or even bettering the other's technology.

It reminds me of the scene in Citizen Kane where one of Kane's employees tells him he is losing a million dollars a year on his newspaper. Kane just grins and says "You’re right, I did lose a million dollars last year. I expect to lose a million dollars this year. I expect to lose a million dollars *next* year. You know, Mr. Thatcher, at the rate of a million dollars a year, I’ll have to close this place in… 60 years.”

Elon has F.U. money. And the legacy automakers don't.

Sure would be nice if he could just build a car that the end buyer isn't handed a ruler during delivery to QC themselves. Maybe a few dollars to secure the wires so they don't slap around inside door panels. That sort of thing.

 

[edyvw]

Sure would be nice if he could just build a car that the end buyer isn't handed a ruler during delivery to QC themselves. Maybe a few dollars to secure the wires so they don't slap around inside door panels. That sort of thing.

I thought Honda Pilot is most uncomfortable ride as I literally go into muscle cramp bcs. the way my leg is positioned, until Model 3.

 

[DwightFrye]

It sure would be interesting to see Tesla's internal documents regarding customer complaints after delivery for things like those poor panel fits or wires slapping around inside door panels.Granted, some people wouldn't notice or wouldn't care and the so called defects would not be reported.

But it sure would have more credibility than what a few people repeat on the internet wouldn't it.

 

[JeffKeryk]

It sure would be interesting to see Tesla's internal documents regarding customer complaints after delivery for things like those poor panel fits or wires slapping around inside door panels.Granted, some people wouldn't notice or wouldn't care and the so called defects would not be reported.

But it sure would have more credibility than what a few people repeat on the internet wouldn't it.

Bottom line is Tesla is killing it in the market. Tops in customer satisfaction which is the #1 indicator of brand loyalty.
Yes, there are build issues, but not across the board. There are repair lead time problems; this needs to be addressed.
Musk is focusing on both.

In the mean time Tesla is killing it in the market. I wonder when other car companies, especially the legacy manufacturers, will learn how to make a truly profitable vehicle with demand like Tesla demand. Warts and all.

Giga Berlin currently delivers about 1,000 Model Y SUVs per week; they are ramping to 5,000 per week and then even higher. Sales in Germany are expected to double. Tesla will not be forced to ship vehicles to supply the strong German demand; further increasing profit margins. At full capacity, Berlin production could approach 700,000 cars annually. The biggest expansion issues are German beauracacy approvals and the need to halt production temporarily to increase capacity.
Berlin is also planning to build batteries, and is ramping faster than previously thought.

Tesla is a great American success story.

 

[Ws6]

It sure would be interesting to see Tesla's internal documents regarding customer complaints after delivery for things like those poor panel fits or wires slapping around inside door panels.Granted, some people wouldn't notice or wouldn't care and the so called defects would not be reported.

But it sure would have more credibility than what a few people repeat on the internet wouldn't it.

My friends who own them tell me these things. Good luck getting Tesla's data. They won't even share data that the law arguably requires.

 

[edyvw]

It sure would be interesting to see Tesla's internal documents regarding customer complaints after delivery for things like those poor panel fits or wires slapping around inside door panels.Granted, some people wouldn't notice or wouldn't care and the so called defects would not be reported.

But it sure would have more credibility than what a few people repeat on the internet wouldn't it.

Tesla is not popular bcs. “quality.” The ROI is based what neighborhood says.

Also, Tesla is not known for any kind of self reflection.

 

[UncleDave]

I wonder how many other vendors will switch to the 46X form factor now that BMW follows tesla?

Curious to see if this starts a sea change with other manufacturers flipping.

If the industry standardizes on a few configs it will be good for all of us vs everyone rolling their own.

 

[alarmguy]

Bottom line is Tesla is killing it in the market. Tops in customer satisfaction which is the #1 indicator of brand loyalty.
Yes, there are build issues, but not across the board. There are repair lead time problems; this needs to be addressed.
Musk is focusing on both.

In the mean time Tesla is killing it in the market. I wonder when other car companies, especially the legacy manufacturers, will learn how to make a truly profitable vehicle with demand like Tesla demand. Warts and all.

Giga Berlin currently delivers about 1,000 Model Y SUVs per week; they are ramping to 5,000 per week and then even higher. Sales in Germany are expected to double. Tesla will not be forced to ship vehicles to supply the strong German demand; further increasing profit margins. At full capacity, Berlin production could approach 700,000 cars annually. The biggest expansion issues are German beauracacy approvals and the need to halt production temporarily to increase capacity.
Berlin is also planning to build batteries, and is ramping faster than previously thought.

Tesla is a great American success story.

Just some truths, inconvenient or not only time will tell how successful this car company will be in a decade.

But I say over and over again they better get their act together because competition is around the corner and the legacy automobile manufacturers are pretty darn good at delivering reliable quality products that people like in all price ranges.
https://stocks.apple.com/AOb5d4I1-TgavQZ_m_TxVkg

https://stocks.apple.com/AtZYwKBd-T2OsyGOw7TUFRQ
I know you know my position on things and I have nothing personal against Elon Musk, but I look at things on the business side as you do.

Absolutely if one wants to take the risk investing in his company that is fine, it could be a grand slam. Since I’m not invested in any automotive companies right now for me personally it would be far too risky and I would be more conservative with a legacy car company for much the same reasons outlined in the two articles above.

I was quite shocked by the second article and not aware of it even though I pointed out to you in the past consumer reports reliability issues. I had no idea they were this bad.
So I would repeat, what will happen when all the well-known well liked brands are turning out the same product?

 

[JeffKeryk]

https://stocks.apple.com/AOb5d4I1-TgavQZ_m_TxVkg

I don't have a Barrons subscription. I would like to read the article. Overall, Barrons has been pessimistic on Tesla for 10 years; they have obviously been very wrong.
EVs have an uphill battle in Germany due to electricity prices.
Regardless, Giga Berlin is ramping from 1000 Model Ys to 5000 in 2023 Q1. They added a 2nd shift and are adding a 3rd.
The Germany 2022 sales goal is 100% increase over 2021, or about 80K vehicles. The demand is there, but they gotta make 'em to sell 'em.

 

[alarmguy]

I don't have a Barrons subscription. I would like to read the article. Overall, Barrons has been pessimistic on Tesla for 10 years; they have obviously been very wrong.
EVs have an uphill battle in Germany due to electricity prices.
Regardless, Giga Berlin is ramping from 1000 Model Ys to 5000 in 2023 Q1. They added a 2nd shift and are adding a 3rd.
The Germany 2022 sales goal is 100% increase over 2021, or about 80K vehicles. The demand is there, but they gotta make 'em to sell 'em.

The links aren’t working?
If not go to the Apple Stocks App on your phone pull up TSLA scroll down to the article.
Let me know curious if I’m posting links others can’t see

Ps. The night shift at South Carolina BMW turned out 400 SUVs last night

 

[JeffKeryk]

The links aren’t working?

The link is fine, but Barrons is subscription based. I cannot access the article without a paid subscription.
Maybe you can post a summary?

 

[alarmguy]

The link is fine, but Barrons is subscription based. I cannot access the article without a paid subscription.
Maybe you can post a summary?

Do you use an iPhone as I just posted how you can access it.
I don’t think if you use the method I posted above that you will need a subscription

 

[UncleDave]

I was quite shocked by the second article and not aware of it even though I pointed out to you in the past consumer reports reliability issues. I had no idea they were this bad.
So I would repeat, what will happen when all the well-known well liked brands are turning out the same product?

Just to put some context on that article.

 

[Cujet]

I wonder how many other vendors will switch to the 46X form factor now that BMW follows tesla?

The manufacturers that don't want excessive warranty battery replacements and a horrible number of customer complaints will choose the 2170 or 4680.